Kenya Election Insights

Data-driven analysis of Kenya's elections from 2007 to 2022

Showing 193-204 of 414 posts

NYANDARUA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
NYANDARUA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for NYANDARUA: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams c...

Aug 06, 2025 2 min 4,570
NYAMIRA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
NYAMIRA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for NYAMIRA: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

Jul 31, 2025 2 min 3,001
WEST POKOT Network Gap Brief: Polling Station Connectivity and 2027 Tally Risk
WEST POKOT Network Gap Brief: Polling Station Connectivity and 2027 Tally Risk

County-level connectivity risk brief for WEST POKOT: where transmission can fail and how campaign teams should prepare.

Jul 31, 2025 2 min 8,566
2022 County Spotlight: Kisumu and Homa Bay — Odinga’s Lakeside Fortress
2022 County Spotlight: Kisumu and Homa Bay — Odinga’s Lakeside Fortress

Kisumu (97.45% Odinga) and Homa Bay (98.93% Odinga) were the two most lopsided counties in the entire 2022 election. Wit...

Jul 31, 2025 4 min 7,733
From ECK to IEBC: Institutional Lessons from 2007
From ECK to IEBC: Institutional Lessons from 2007

A deeper 2007 brief built from validated project data points: presidential totals, parliamentary seat split, petition ba...

Jul 31, 2025 2 min 11,542
NAROK 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
NAROK 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for NAROK: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can p...

Jul 25, 2025 2 min 4,363
TURKANA Network Gap Brief: Polling Station Connectivity and 2027 Tally Risk
TURKANA Network Gap Brief: Polling Station Connectivity and 2027 Tally Risk

County-level connectivity risk brief for TURKANA: where transmission can fail and how campaign teams should prepare.

Jul 24, 2025 2 min 2,923
2022 County Spotlight: Elgeyo/Marakwet — Ruto’s Home Turf at 96.86%
2022 County Spotlight: Elgeyo/Marakwet — Ruto’s Home Turf at 96.86%

Elgeyo/Marakwet County gave William Ruto 160,033 votes (96.86%) in 2022. The late Raila Odinga managed just 4,893 votes...

Jul 23, 2025 4 min 9,713
36 Petitions in 2007: The Forgotten Baseline
36 Petitions in 2007: The Forgotten Baseline

A deeper 2007 brief built from validated project data points: presidential totals, parliamentary seat split, petition ba...

Jul 21, 2025 2 min 1,684
NANDI 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
NANDI 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for NANDI: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can p...

Jul 19, 2025 2 min 11,310
Senator Petitions: What the Numbers Teach Campaigns Before 2027 (Part 12)
Senator Petitions: What the Numbers Teach Campaigns Before 2027 (Part 12)

A data-backed legal risk brief for Senator campaigns: filings trend, success rate, and prevention strategy for 2027.

Jul 17, 2025 2 min 1,225
2022 County Spotlight: Siaya — 98.60% for the late Raila, the Ultimate Stronghold
2022 County Spotlight: Siaya — 98.60% for the late Raila, the Ultimate Stronghold

Siaya County gave the late Raila Odinga 371,092 votes out of 376,354 valid votes — a staggering 98.60%. William Ruto rec...

Jul 15, 2025 5 min 5,001