2022 County Spotlight: Siaya — 98.60% for the late Raila, the Ultimate Stronghold

Only 4,320 people in Siaya voted for Ruto out of 376,354 valid votes. That is 1.15%.

There are strongholds in Kenyan politics, and then there is Siaya. This county in Nyanza Province, sitting on the shores of Lake Victoria, was the ancestral home of the late Raila Amolo Odinga — the man who ran for president in 2007, 2013, 2017, and 2022, and whose father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga was Kenya’s first Vice President.

In 2022, Siaya did what Siaya always does. It delivered 371,092 votes for Odinga (98.60%). Ruto got 4,320 votes (1.15%). George Wajackoyah got 734 votes. David Mwaure got 208 votes. There were 1,894 rejected ballots.

Let that sink in. More ballots were rejected (1,894) than votes cast for Wajackoyah (734) and Mwaure (208) combined. Ruto’s 4,320 votes were barely more than a rounding error in a county of 533,602 registered voters.

The Numbers Across Three Elections

Siaya’s loyalty to the late Raila was not a one-off. It was consistent across every election he ran in:

In 2013, with 312,441 registered voters, Siaya delivered about 92% turnout. Odinga won the county by similar overwhelming margins. In 2017, with 457,957 registered voters, Odinga got 375,712 votes (99.11%) and Kenyatta got just 2,494 (0.66%). And in 2022, with 533,602 registered voters, Odinga got 371,092 (98.60%) and Ruto got 4,320 (1.15%).

The actual vote for Odinga barely changed between 2017 (375,712) and 2022 (371,092) — a difference of just 4,620 votes. But the challenger’s vote went from 2,494 (Kenyatta in 2017) to 4,320 (Ruto in 2022). That near-doubling of the opposition vote might seem interesting, but in a county where 98.60% goes one way, it is statistically irrelevant.

The “Local Son” Effect at Its Most Extreme

Political scientists talk about the “local son” effect — the tendency for voters to overwhelmingly support a candidate from their own community or region. Siaya is the most extreme example of this effect in Kenya, and possibly in all of Africa.

The late Raila Odinga’s family compound is in Bondo, Siaya County. His father’s grave is there. The Odinga name is not just political in Siaya — it is cultural, familial, almost sacred. Voting for anyone other than an Odinga was, for most Siaya residents, simply unthinkable.

This has a measurable effect on turnout too. Siaya’s turnout of 70.89% in 2022 was significantly higher than the national average of about 64.8%. In comparison, Mombasa managed only 43.76%. The personal connection to the candidate drives people to the polls.

According to the IEBC, Siaya was one of only a handful of counties where turnout actually exceeded 70% in 2022. Neighbouring Kisumu hit 71.37% and Homa Bay reached 73.70% — all Odinga strongholds. The pattern is clear: where the local son is on the ballot, people show up.

The Elephant in the Room: What Happens Without Odinga?

The late Raila Odinga passed away in October 2025. For the first time since Kenya’s multi-party era began, Siaya voters will face a presidential election without an Odinga on the ballot. This raises the most important political question in Nyanza:

Will Siaya still turn out?

There are two schools of thought. The optimistic view is that Siaya’s political identity runs deeper than one man. The Luo community’s sense of political exclusion — of being shut out of the presidency despite consistently being one of Kenya’s largest voting blocs — will continue to drive turnout regardless of who the candidate is.

The pessimistic view is that without the Odinga name, Siaya could see a Mombasa-like collapse in turnout. If the county drops from 70.89% to even 55%, that is roughly 80,000 fewer votes for whatever opposition candidate inherits Odinga’s base. Those votes could decide a national election.

For historical context on Nyanza’s voting patterns, Nation Africa’s political coverage has tracked the region extensively. For legal context on how stronghold voting affects petition outcomes, see Kenya Law Reports.

Siaya’s Place in the National Picture

Siaya’s 371,092 votes for the late Raila were significant nationally. Out of Odinga’s total of 6,942,930 votes, Siaya contributed 5.34%. That might not sound like much, but in an election decided by 233,211 votes (Ruto’s margin of victory), every county matters.

Combined with Kisumu (419,997), Homa Bay (399,784), and Migori (294,136), the four Luo-majority counties in Nyanza delivered 1,486,009 votes for the late Raila — 21.4% of his national total. Lose just 15% of that Nyanza vote to lower turnout in 2027, and the opposition starts 223,000 votes behind before the campaign even begins.

For more on Nyanza’s voting bloc, see our Kisumu and Homa Bay spotlight. For the other extreme in Kenyan strongholds, see our Elgeyo/Marakwet spotlight.

Key Takeaways

1. Siaya gave the late Raila 98.60% — the second-highest percentage in the country after Homa Bay (98.93%)
2. Ruto got just 4,320 votes (1.15%) — fewer than rejected ballots
3. Turnout was 70.89% — well above national average, driven by the local son effect
4. The 2027 question: without Odinga on the ballot, can Siaya maintain this turnout and this unity?

Track every vote from every polling station. Even in strongholds like Siaya, station-level data tells important stories. Votrack’s parallel tallying platform covers all 47 counties. Request a demo to see it in action.