2022 County Spotlight: Elgeyo/Marakwet — Ruto’s Home Turf at 96.86%

The late Raila got only 4,893 votes in Elgeyo/Marakwet. That is fewer than the rejected ballots.

Every Kenyan president has a home county that votes for them in near-unanimity. For Kenyatta, it was Kiambu. For the late Raila, it was Siaya. For William Ruto, it is the Rift Valley — and no county in the Rift delivered more completely than Elgeyo/Marakwet.

In 2022, Elgeyo/Marakwet’s 213,904 registered voters delivered 160,033 votes for Ruto (96.86%). The late Raila received just 4,893 votes (2.96%). David Mwaure got 122 votes. George Wajackoyah got 176 votes. And there were 1,537 rejected ballots — a number that, remarkably, is not far from Odinga’s entire vote total.

To put Odinga’s 4,893 votes in perspective: that is roughly the number of students at a medium-sized Kenyan secondary school. In a county with over 200,000 registered voters, fewer than 5,000 chose the opposition candidate.

The Ruto Stronghold Belt

Elgeyo/Marakwet is part of a chain of Kalenjin-majority counties in the Rift Valley that delivered overwhelming margins for Ruto. Let’s look at how it compares with its neighbours:

The numbers are striking. Bomet gave Ruto 95.27% (285,428 of 299,606). Kericho gave him 95.32% (318,861 of 334,516). Nandi gave him 91.30% (280,813 of 307,575). Baringo gave him 80.69% (175,170 of 217,091). And Elgeyo/Marakwet topped them all at 96.86%.

Together, these five Kalenjin stronghold counties delivered 1,200,305 votes for Ruto with an average vote share of over 92%. This is the equivalent of Odinga’s Nyanza bloc — a massive, near-unanimous base that forms the foundation of Ruto’s electoral math.

Turnout: High and Motivated

Unlike some Mt. Kenya counties where turnout dropped significantly between 2017 and 2022, Elgeyo/Marakwet maintained strong turnout. In 2022, the county recorded 77.96% turnout — well above the national average of about 64.8%.

Historical turnout for the county shows a slight decline but nothing dramatic:

• 2013: 135,487 registered, ~91% turnout (123,474 voted)
• 2017: 180,679 registered, ~81.3% turnout (146,507 valid + 477 rejected)
• 2022: 213,904 registered, 77.96% turnout

The decline from 91% to 78% mirrors the national trend, but Elgeyo/Marakwet’s turnout remained about 13 percentage points above the national average. This is the local son effect in action: when your man is running for president, you show up.

The Home Region Effect: Ruto’s Foundation

Ruto grew up in Kamagut, Uasin Gishu County, but his political base extends across the entire Kalenjin-speaking Rift Valley. Elgeyo/Marakwet is part of this core. The county has been one of the most consistently pro-Jubilee and pro-UDA counties in every election since 2013.

In 2017, when Ruto was Kenyatta’s running mate, Elgeyo/Marakwet gave the Jubilee ticket 138,634 votes (94.62%) against Odinga’s 7,102 (4.85%). In 2022, with Ruto as the principal candidate rather than the deputy, the vote share actually increased from 94.62% to 96.86%. Ruto running as the big man, not the deputy, made the county even more enthusiastic.

The difference between 2017 and 2022 is also visible in the opposition vote. The late Raila’s share dropped from 4.85% (7,102 votes) in 2017 to 2.96% (4,893 votes) in 2022. As noted by Nation Africa, the Rift Valley closed ranks even further around Ruto when he ran as the presidential candidate.

What This Means for 2027

Elgeyo/Marakwet is almost certainly going to remain a Ruto fortress in 2027. The county has no reason to defect. Unlike Mt. Kenya, where Gachagua’s impeachment has created uncertainty, the Rift Valley remains solidly behind Ruto. He is their man, and there is no comparable event that has shaken that loyalty.

The real question for 2027 is whether Ruto can maintain the Rift Valley’s high turnout. If Elgeyo/Marakwet drops from 78% to the national average of 65%, Ruto loses about 28,000 votes from this county alone. Multiply that across the five core Kalenjin counties, and the potential loss is 100,000+ votes.

But incumbents typically hold their base. Ruto has the power of government behind him, and constitutional term limits mean this will be his last presidential race. Expect the Rift Valley to deliver even more aggressively in 2027 than it did in 2022.

For the mirror image of this stronghold, see our Siaya spotlight. For how diverse Rift Valley counties behave differently, see our Nakuru spotlight.

Key Takeaways

1. Ruto got 96.86% in Elgeyo/Marakwet — his highest county vote share
2. The late Raila got just 4,893 votes (2.96%) — barely more than rejected ballots
3. Turnout was 77.96% — 13 points above the national average
4. The Rift Valley stronghold is intact and likely to hold or strengthen in 2027

Monitor Rift Valley vote tallying in real time. Votrack’s parallel tallying system covers every polling station across all 47 counties. Request a demo and track results from Elgeyo/Marakwet’s 618 polling stations.