Kenya Election Insights

Data-driven analysis of Kenya's elections from 2007 to 2022

Showing 181-192 of 337 posts

The Role of Parallel Vote Tallying in Ensuring Election Integrity
The Role of Parallel Vote Tallying in Ensuring Election Integrity

When the 2022 presidential election was decided by 233,211 votes across 46,229 polling stations, the difference between...

Mar 31, 2025 7 min 11,543
KIAMBU 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
KIAMBU 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for KIAMBU: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

Mar 27, 2025 2 min 7,776
The Agent Communication Hierarchy: How Election Results Flow from Station to Headquarters
The Agent Communication Hierarchy: How Election Results Flow from Station to Headquarters

Kenya's election agent communication hierarchy has four tiers: Polling Station Agent, Constituency Chief Agent, County C...

Mar 22, 2025 6 min 3,662
2022 County Spotlight: Kiambu — From Kenyatta Country to Ruto Territory
2022 County Spotlight: Kiambu — From Kenyatta Country to Ruto Territory

Kiambu County, home to the Kenyatta dynasty and Kenya’s second-largest electorate at 1.28 million voters, flipped from K...

Mar 22, 2025 5 min 1,146
KERICHO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
KERICHO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for KERICHO: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

Mar 21, 2025 2 min 301
KAKAMEGA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
KAKAMEGA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for KAKAMEGA: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams ca...

Mar 15, 2025 2 min 5,263
Presidential Strongholds: Where 90%+ of Voters Chose One Candidate
Presidential Strongholds: Where 90%+ of Voters Chose One Candidate

Kenyan presidential elections are decided in a handful of swing counties. But the story starts in the strongholds, where...

Mar 14, 2025 5 min 4,533
The Orange Wave: How ODM Won 99 Parliamentary Seats in 2007
The Orange Wave: How ODM Won 99 Parliamentary Seats in 2007

In the 2007 parliamentary elections, Raila Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement won 99 out of 210 seats — 47% of the Nati...

Mar 12, 2025 7 min 834
KAJIADO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
KAJIADO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for KAJIADO: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

Mar 09, 2025 2 min 10,042
County and National Tallying: The Final Steps to Declaring Kenya's Election Results
County and National Tallying: The Final Steps to Declaring Kenya's Election Results

After constituency tallying, results flow upward to county and national levels. At the county level, Governor, Senator,...

Mar 08, 2025 6 min 4,588
Youth Candidates vs Youth Winners: The 9.2% Success Rate
Youth Candidates vs Youth Winners: The 9.2% Success Rate

In 2017, 3,428 youth candidates ran for elective office in Kenya. Only 314 won — a 9.2% success rate. But the gender bre...

Mar 07, 2025 4 min 7,356
ISIOLO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
ISIOLO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for ISIOLO: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

Mar 03, 2025 2 min 657