Kenya Election Insights

Data-driven analysis of Kenya's elections from 2007 to 2022

Showing 205-216 of 337 posts

Independent Candidates: 4,002 Ran in 2017, Only 125 Won
Independent Candidates: 4,002 Ran in 2017, Only 125 Won

In 2017, 4,002 candidates ran as independents across all six elective positions. Only 125 won — a success rate of just 3...

Jan 31, 2025 5 min 9,091
BUSIA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
BUSIA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for BUSIA: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can p...

Jan 26, 2025 2 min 4,438
What Agents Must Do During Counting: A Practical Checklist
What Agents Must Do During Counting: A Practical Checklist

A practical 15-point checklist for party agents during vote counting at Kenyan polling stations: from verifying your app...

Jan 25, 2025 7 min 11,505
2022 County Spotlight: Nairobi — 2.42 Million Voters, 12,869 Rejected Ballots
2022 County Spotlight: Nairobi — 2.42 Million Voters, 12,869 Rejected Ballots

Nairobi County had 2,416,551 registered voters in 2022 — the largest electorate in Kenya. Odinga won it with 767,395 vot...

Jan 23, 2025 6 min 7,980
BUNGOMA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
BUNGOMA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for BUNGOMA: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

Jan 20, 2025 2 min 1,932
Kibaki vs Raila: The Numbers Behind Kenya's Most Disputed Election
Kibaki vs Raila: The Numbers Behind Kenya's Most Disputed Election

A province-by-province breakdown of the 2007 presidential election reveals why the results remain Kenya's most disputed....

Jan 15, 2025 7 min 11,011
The MCA Landscape: 1,448 Wards, 41 Parties, and the Most Diverse Political Arena
The MCA Landscape: 1,448 Wards, 41 Parties, and the Most Diverse Political Arena

The 2017 MCA elections were the most politically diverse contest in Kenya. While 21 parties won National Assembly seats,...

Jan 15, 2025 5 min 8,210
BOMET 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
BOMET 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for BOMET: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can p...

Jan 14, 2025 2 min 5,092
Statutory Result Forms in Kenya: What Form 34A to 39A Capture and Why Agents Sign
Statutory Result Forms in Kenya: What Form 34A to 39A Capture and Why Agents Sign

A detailed guide to statutory result forms 34A through 39A used in Kenyan elections: what each form captures, why agents...

Jan 10, 2025 5 min 11,315
BARINGO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
BARINGO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for BARINGO: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

Jan 08, 2025 2 min 5,169
Party Dominance in Parliament: How Jubilee Won 140 of 289 MP Seats in 2017
Party Dominance in Parliament: How Jubilee Won 140 of 289 MP Seats in 2017

In 2017, Kenya's National Assembly was elected across 290 constituencies. Twenty-one different political parties won sea...

Jan 07, 2025 4 min 3,747
Voter Registration: Where Kenya Added 8 Million Voters in 9 Years
Voter Registration: Where Kenya Added 8 Million Voters in 9 Years

Kenya's voter register grew from 14.4 million in 2013 to 22.1 million in 2022. That is 7.7 million new voters in 9 years...

Dec 30, 2024 4 min 4,482