Showing 1-12 of 500 posts
Why Election Petitions Keep Failing: The 7.8% Success Rate Explained
In 2007, 36 election petitions were filed and 17 succeeded, a 47% success rate. By 2013, 188 were filed but only 24 succ...
Kericho Referendum Watch 3: Constitutional Reform, Risk, and 2027 Electoral Stability
A county-grounded brief for Kericho using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regi...
Kakamega Referendum Watch 2: Constitutional Reform, Risk, and 2027 Electoral Stability
A county-grounded brief for Kakamega using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, reg...
ELGEYO/MARAKWET Stronghold Outlook: Turnout Pressure and Coalition Math for 2027
Stronghold forecast for ELGEYO/MARAKWET: three-election turnout trend, 2022 vote split, and practical coalition implicat...
Kajiado Referendum Watch 1: Constitutional Reform, Risk, and 2027 Electoral Stability
A county-grounded brief for Kajiado using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regi...
NAROK: Stronghold protection vs expansion strategy (Closest Presidential Margins in 2022)
Data-backed campaign playbook for NAROK: turnout trajectory, registration depth, margin risk, and how to plan agents and...
Isiolo Field Note 50: Mt. Kenya Shockwaves, By-Election Lessons, and the 2027 Ground Game
A county-grounded brief for Isiolo using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regis...
Homa Bay Field Note 49: Mt. Kenya Shockwaves, By-Election Lessons, and the 2027 Ground Game
A county-grounded brief for Homa Bay using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, reg...
Garissa Field Note 48: Mt. Kenya Shockwaves, By-Election Lessons, and the 2027 Ground Game
A county-grounded brief for Garissa using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regi...
2022's Darkest Moment: Two Election Officials Died
The 2022 election achieved a historic first: zero police-attributed election deaths. But two IEBC officials, Daniel Musy...
Embu Field Note 47: Mt. Kenya Shockwaves, By-Election Lessons, and the 2027 Ground Game
A county-grounded brief for Embu using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, registr...
Elgeyo/Marakwet Field Note 46: Mt. Kenya Shockwaves, By-Election Lessons, and the 2027 Ground Game
A county-grounded brief for Elgeyo/Marakwet using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressu...