Kenya Election Insights

Data-driven analysis of Kenya's elections from 2007 to 2022

Showing 13-24 of 287 posts

MOMBASA: How turnout discipline can flip swing zones (Lowest Turnout Counties)
MOMBASA: How turnout discipline can flip swing zones (Lowest Turnout Counties)

Data-backed campaign playbook for MOMBASA: turnout trajectory, registration depth, margin risk, and how to plan agents a...

Mar 01, 2026 2 min 7,021
2022 County Spotlight: Kitui and Tharaka-Nithi — The Eastern Divide
2022 County Spotlight: Kitui and Tharaka-Nithi — The Eastern Divide

Kitui (71.53% Odinga) and Tharaka-Nithi (89.79% Ruto) are neighbours that voted in completely opposite directions in 202...

Feb 28, 2026 4 min 11,766
2022 County Spotlight: Kericho and Bomet — The Kalenjin Heartland
2022 County Spotlight: Kericho and Bomet — The Kalenjin Heartland

Kericho (95.32% Ruto) and Bomet (95.27% Ruto) are the two most one-sided Ruto counties in Kenya. Together they delivered...

Feb 22, 2026 4 min 6,280
How Valid Votes Varied by Position in 2013: The Down-Ballot Drop-Off
How Valid Votes Varied by Position in 2013: The Down-Ballot Drop-Off

In 2013, Kenyans received six different ballots. The presidential ballot received 12,221,053 valid votes. But by the tim...

Feb 15, 2026 5 min 7,362
2022 County Spotlight: Garissa, Wajir, and Mandera — The Northeastern Bloc
2022 County Spotlight: Garissa, Wajir, and Mandera — The Northeastern Bloc

The three Northeastern counties — Garissa, Wajir, and Mandera — are often treated as a political bloc. But in 2022, they...

Feb 07, 2026 4 min 7,874
The Wajackoyah Factor: Did the Third Candidate Affect the 2022 Result?
The Wajackoyah Factor: Did the Third Candidate Affect the 2022 Result?

Professor George Wajackoyah's Roots Party captured 61,969 votes (0.44%) in the 2022 presidential election. With a Ruto-O...

Jan 31, 2026 6 min 5,747
From Kenyatta to Ruto: How Mt. Kenya's Vote Shifted in 2022
From Kenyatta to Ruto: How Mt. Kenya's Vote Shifted in 2022

Mt. Kenya's six core counties voted 92-99% for Kenyatta in 2017 and 73-85% for Ruto in 2022. The transfer worked, but th...

Jan 23, 2026 5 min 7,002
2022 County Spotlight: Turkana — High Stakes, Low Turnout in the North
2022 County Spotlight: Turkana — High Stakes, Low Turnout in the North

Turkana County combines extreme geography, limited infrastructure, and a politically engaged population into one of Keny...

Jan 15, 2026 4 min 4,537
2022 Election: The Complete County-by-County Results Map
2022 Election: The Complete County-by-County Results Map

The definitive county-by-county breakdown of Kenya's 2022 presidential election. William Ruto won 7,176,141 votes (50.49...

Jan 07, 2026 5 min 11,848
SAMBURU: Predicting 2027 pressure points from 2022 numbers (Highest Turnout Counties)
SAMBURU: Predicting 2027 pressure points from 2022 numbers (Highest Turnout Counties)

Data-backed campaign playbook for SAMBURU: turnout trajectory, registration depth, margin risk, and how to plan agents a...

Dec 28, 2025 2 min 5,742
SIAYA: Stronghold protection vs expansion strategy (Highest Turnout Counties)
SIAYA: Stronghold protection vs expansion strategy (Highest Turnout Counties)

Data-backed campaign playbook for SIAYA: turnout trajectory, registration depth, margin risk, and how to plan agents and...

Dec 22, 2025 2 min 11,935
KISUMU: Where campaigns should invest in voter contact (Highest Turnout Counties)
KISUMU: Where campaigns should invest in voter contact (Highest Turnout Counties)

Data-backed campaign playbook for KISUMU: turnout trajectory, registration depth, margin risk, and how to plan agents an...

Dec 16, 2025 2 min 9,802