Kenya Election Insights

Data-driven analysis of Kenya's elections from 2007 to 2022

Showing 97-108 of 287 posts

MARSABIT 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
MARSABIT 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for MARSABIT: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams ca...

Jun 07, 2025 2 min 7,317
2022's Closest Races: Where a Few Hundred Votes Changed Everything
2022's Closest Races: Where a Few Hundred Votes Changed Everything

Kenya's 2022 election produced some of the tightest margins in the country's multiparty history. At the presidential lev...

Jun 07, 2025 6 min 8,735
Governor Petitions: What the Numbers Teach Campaigns Before 2027 (Part 6)
Governor Petitions: What the Numbers Teach Campaigns Before 2027 (Part 6)

A data-backed legal risk brief for Governor campaigns: filings trend, success rate, and prevention strategy for 2027.

Jun 05, 2025 2 min 8,447
The ORPP Agents Quick Guide: Why Every Party Official in Kenya Needs This Document
The ORPP Agents Quick Guide: Why Every Party Official in Kenya Needs This Document

The ORPP Agents Quick Guide (June 2022) is mandatory reading for every party official, candidate, and polling agent in K...

Jun 01, 2025 7 min 10,738
MANDERA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
MANDERA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for MANDERA: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

Jun 01, 2025 2 min 8,269
The 231,728-Vote Margin: Why 2007 Was Contestable From Day One
The 231,728-Vote Margin: Why 2007 Was Contestable From Day One

A deeper 2007 brief built from validated project data points: presidential totals, parliamentary seat split, petition ba...

Jun 01, 2025 2 min 3,425
Women Representatives: How Jubilee Dominated the 47 County Women Rep Seats
Women Representatives: How Jubilee Dominated the 47 County Women Rep Seats

In the 2017 General Election, Jubilee claimed 25 of 47 county Women Representative seats. ODM trailed with 11. But the r...

May 31, 2025 5 min 8,248
Member of the County Assembly Petitions: What the Numbers Teach Campaigns Before 2027 (Part 5)
Member of the County Assembly Petitions: What the Numbers Teach Campaigns Before 2027 (Part 5)

A data-backed legal risk brief for Member of the County Assembly campaigns: filings trend, success rate, and prevention...

May 29, 2025 2 min 3,993
MAKUENI 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
MAKUENI 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for MAKUENI: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

May 26, 2025 2 min 10,008
2022 County Spotlight: Kakamega — Western Kenya’s Biggest Electorate
2022 County Spotlight: Kakamega — Western Kenya’s Biggest Electorate

With 844,709 registered voters, Kakamega County is Western Kenya's electoral heavyweight. Raila Odinga won it with 71.04...

May 23, 2025 5 min 2,683
Member of the National Assembly Petitions: What the Numbers Teach Campaigns Before 2027 (Part 4)
Member of the National Assembly Petitions: What the Numbers Teach Campaigns Before 2027 (Part 4)

A data-backed legal risk brief for Member of the National Assembly campaigns: filings trend, success rate, and preventio...

May 22, 2025 2 min 6,712
Parallel Vote Tallying: Why Agents Photograph Form 34A and How Votrack Helps
Parallel Vote Tallying: Why Agents Photograph Form 34A and How Votrack Helps

Parallel Vote Tallying (PVT) allows parties to independently verify official results by collecting station-level data fr...

May 20, 2025 8 min 4,066