Kenya Election Insights

Data-driven analysis of Kenya's elections from 2007 to 2022

Showing 37-48 of 287 posts

2022 County Spotlight: Bungoma — Where Ruto Outperformed Expectations
2022 County Spotlight: Bungoma — Where Ruto Outperformed Expectations

Bungoma County was supposed to be Azimio territory. Western Kenya had traditionally voted with Odinga. But William Ruto...

Oct 15, 2025 5 min 8,000
WAJIR 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
WAJIR 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for WAJIR: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can p...

Oct 11, 2025 2 min 6,201
How Many Parties Does Kenya Really Need? The 41-Party Parliament
How Many Parties Does Kenya Really Need? The 41-Party Parliament

Kenya's 2017 election produced a parliament fragmented across 41 political parties. Jubilee and ODM dominated, but dozen...

Oct 07, 2025 5 min 4,808
VIHIGA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
VIHIGA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for VIHIGA: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

Oct 05, 2025 2 min 442
Prison Voters: 7,483 Kenyans Voted from Behind Bars in 2022
Prison Voters: 7,483 Kenyans Voted from Behind Bars in 2022

In the 2022 general election, 7,483 Kenyans exercised their right to vote from 118 prison facilities across the country....

Oct 01, 2025 6 min 8,232
UASIN GISHU 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
UASIN GISHU 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for UASIN GISHU: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams...

Sep 29, 2025 2 min 10,853
TURKANA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
TURKANA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for TURKANA: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

Sep 23, 2025 2 min 7,960
2022 County Spotlight: Machakos and Makueni — Kamba Country's Vote
2022 County Spotlight: Machakos and Makueni — Kamba Country's Vote

Machakos and Makueni counties delivered a decisive Kamba bloc vote for the late Raila Odinga in 2022. Machakos gave him...

Sep 23, 2025 5 min 1,980
TRANS NZOIA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
TRANS NZOIA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for TRANS NZOIA: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams...

Sep 17, 2025 2 min 8,188
The Agent's Guide: How Parallel Vote Tallying Works at the Polling Station
The Agent's Guide: How Parallel Vote Tallying Works at the Polling Station

Your agent has arrived at the polling station. The presiding officer has started the count. Votes are being tallied on t...

Sep 15, 2025 8 min 1,288
THARAKA-NITHI 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
THARAKA-NITHI 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for THARAKA-NITHI: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign tea...

Sep 11, 2025 2 min 5,358
ISIOLO Network Gap Brief: Polling Station Connectivity and 2027 Tally Risk
ISIOLO Network Gap Brief: Polling Station Connectivity and 2027 Tally Risk

County-level connectivity risk brief for ISIOLO: where transmission can fail and how campaign teams should prepare.

Sep 11, 2025 2 min 9,918