Kenya Election Insights

Data-driven analysis of Kenya's elections from 2007 to 2022

Showing 25-36 of 412 posts

KILIFI: Where campaigns should invest in voter contact (Fastest Registration Growth)
KILIFI: Where campaigns should invest in voter contact (Fastest Registration Growth)

Data-backed campaign playbook for KILIFI: turnout trajectory, registration depth, margin risk, and how to plan agents an...

May 25, 2026 2 min 6,647
Mombasa Rejected Ballot Watch: Where Ballot Quality Could Decide 2027
Mombasa Rejected Ballot Watch: Where Ballot Quality Could Decide 2027

A county ballot-quality brief for Mombasa: rejection rate, turnout context, and practical fixes for campaigns ahead of 2...

May 25, 2026 2 min 3,799
What 2007 Teaches 2027 Campaign Teams About Evidence
What 2007 Teaches 2027 Campaign Teams About Evidence

A deeper 2007 brief built from validated project data points: presidential totals, parliamentary seat split, petition ba...

May 25, 2026 2 min 2,841
Siaya Coalition Memo 35: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit
Siaya Coalition Memo 35: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit

A county-grounded brief for Siaya using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regist...

May 24, 2026 2 min 7,889
Predicting 2027 Turnout: What Historical Data Tells Us
Predicting 2027 Turnout: What Historical Data Tells Us

Kenya's turnout has fallen from 86% to 65% across three elections. With registration projected to reach 24-26 million by...

May 23, 2026 5 min 6,496
Samburu Coalition Memo 34: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit
Samburu Coalition Memo 34: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit

A county-grounded brief for Samburu using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regi...

May 23, 2026 2 min 3,479
Nyeri Coalition Memo 33: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit
Nyeri Coalition Memo 33: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit

A county-grounded brief for Nyeri using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regist...

May 22, 2026 2 min 668
Nyandarua Coalition Memo 32: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit
Nyandarua Coalition Memo 32: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit

A county-grounded brief for Nyandarua using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, re...

May 21, 2026 2 min 1,145
Nyamira Coalition Memo 31: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit
Nyamira Coalition Memo 31: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit

A county-grounded brief for Nyamira using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regi...

May 20, 2026 2 min 1,308
KAKAMEGA: How turnout discipline can flip swing zones (Fastest Registration Growth)
KAKAMEGA: How turnout discipline can flip swing zones (Fastest Registration Growth)

Data-backed campaign playbook for KAKAMEGA: turnout trajectory, registration depth, margin risk, and how to plan agents...

May 20, 2026 2 min 678
Narok Coalition Memo 30: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit
Narok Coalition Memo 30: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit

A county-grounded brief for Narok using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regist...

May 19, 2026 2 min 9,925
Murang'a Rejected Ballot Watch: Where Ballot Quality Could Decide 2027
Murang'a Rejected Ballot Watch: Where Ballot Quality Could Decide 2027

A county ballot-quality brief for Murang'a: rejection rate, turnout context, and practical fixes for campaigns ahead of...

May 19, 2026 2 min 10,395