What Makes a Petition Succeed? Analyzing 2017's 35 Successful Challenges

Governor petitions had an 8.6% success rate. Senator petitions had 0%. That contrast tells you almost everything you need to know about the unpredictable, expensive, and often frustrating world of election petitions in Kenya.

After the 2017 General Election, a record 446 election petitions were filed across the country's courts. This was a dramatic increase from 188 petitions in 2013 and just 36 in 2007. The 2017 figure does not even include the most famous petition of all: Raila Odinga's successful challenge of the presidential result at the Supreme Court.

The Overall Numbers: 446 Filed, 35 Succeeded

Of the 446 petitions filed after the 2017 election, the courts dismissed 398 and allowed just 35. That is a success rate of 7.8%, meaning more than 9 out of every 10 petitions failed.

But the aggregate number masks significant variation by elective position:

Note: The IEBC's summary accounts for 299 petitions across these five categories. The broader figure of 446 petitions includes the presidential petition and additional procedural filings across various courts.

Why Senator Petitions All Failed

Fifteen Senate election results were challenged in 2017. Every single petition was dismissed. Zero succeeded.

This may reflect the nature of Senate races. Senators are elected on a county-wide basis, meaning the margin of victory tends to be larger than in constituency-level races. A wider margin makes it harder for petitioners to demonstrate that irregularities affected the outcome, which is the legal standard courts apply.

It may also reflect the cost barrier. Senate petition cases are heard at the High Court and are expensive to litigate. Petitioners who cannot fund expert witnesses, forensic audits, and extended legal proceedings are at a severe disadvantage.

MCA Petitions: The Volume Game

Member of County Assembly races generated the most petitions (139) and the most successful challenges (12). This makes sense: MCA races are the most local and often the most hotly contested. The wards they represent are small enough that a few hundred disputed votes can change the outcome.

The 8.6% success rate for MCA petitions matched the Governor rate, suggesting that the courts applied a consistent standard across positions. The difference was simply volume: with 1,448 MCA seats at stake (versus 47 Governor seats), there were far more opportunities for disputes.

The Presidential Petition: A Category of Its Own

The most consequential petition of 2017 is not included in the IEBC's summary table. On September 1, 2017, the Supreme Court of Kenya nullified President Uhuru Kenyatta's victory in a 4-2 decision, citing irregularities in the transmission of results. It was the first time in African history that a sitting president's election was annulled by a court.

The Supreme Court's ruling focused on the IEBC's failure to comply with constitutional and statutory requirements in the transmission, verification, and tallying of results. The court did not find evidence of direct vote rigging but ruled that the process was so flawed that the result could not be verified.

This single petition had a larger impact on Kenya's political trajectory than all 446 combined. It forced the October 26 fresh election, which Raila Odinga boycotted, leading to a constitutional crisis and eventually the 2018 "handshake" between Kenyatta and Odinga.

The Trend: Petitions Are Increasing, Success Rates Are Not

The growth in petition numbers across election cycles is dramatic:

• 2007: 36 petitions filed, 17 succeeded (47.2%)
• 2013: 188 petitions filed, 24 succeeded (12.8%)
• 2017: 446 petitions filed, 35 succeeded (7.8%)

The number of petitions has grown more than 12 times since 2007, but the success rate has dropped from nearly 50% to under 8%. This suggests that as petitions become more common, many are filed without strong evidence, perhaps as a political statement or as a negotiating tactic rather than a genuine legal challenge.

What Makes a Successful Petition?

Based on the patterns in the 2017 data and Kenya Law's published rulings, successful petitions typically share several characteristics:

1. Narrow margins. Courts are more likely to order a fresh election when the margin of victory is small enough that proven irregularities could have changed the result.
2. Procedural violations by IEBC. Documented failures in the conduct of the election, such as missing voter registers, malfunctioning KIEMS kits, or results forms with missing signatures, strengthen petitions.
3. Concrete evidence. Petitioners who present ballot audits, statistical analysis, or witness testimony from polling stations fare better than those relying on general allegations.
4. Competent legal teams. Election petitions are technically complex and time-bound. Petitioners must file within strict deadlines and navigate specialized election courts.

The Cost of Petitions

Election petitions are not just legally difficult; they are financially ruinous. The average cost of an MCA petition in 2017 was estimated at KES 2-5 million, while Governor and Senate petitions could run into tens of millions. With a sub-10% success rate, most petitioners lost both their case and their money.

This has led to calls for reforming the petition process to make it more accessible and less dependent on deep pockets. Others argue that the low success rate simply reflects the difficulty of proving election fraud to the court's satisfaction.

For a broader view of the 2017 election landscape, see our analysis of Five Years On: Remembering August 8, 2017 by the Numbers and Biometric Voter Verification, which explores how technology failures fed into some of these legal challenges.