Kenya Election Insights

Data-driven analysis of Kenya's elections from 2007 to 2022

Showing 145-156 of 337 posts

Senator Petitions: What the Numbers Teach Campaigns Before 2027 (Part 7)
Senator Petitions: What the Numbers Teach Campaigns Before 2027 (Part 7)

A data-backed legal risk brief for Senator campaigns: filings trend, success rate, and prevention strategy for 2027.

Jun 12, 2025 2 min 8,874
2007 by the Numbers: What We Can Prove From Surviving Datasets
2007 by the Numbers: What We Can Prove From Surviving Datasets

A deeper 2007 brief built from validated project data points: presidential totals, parliamentary seat split, petition ba...

Jun 11, 2025 2 min 8,490
MARSABIT 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
MARSABIT 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for MARSABIT: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams ca...

Jun 07, 2025 2 min 613
2022's Closest Races: Where a Few Hundred Votes Changed Everything
2022's Closest Races: Where a Few Hundred Votes Changed Everything

Kenya's 2022 election produced some of the tightest margins in the country's multiparty history. At the presidential lev...

Jun 07, 2025 6 min 6,714
Governor Petitions: What the Numbers Teach Campaigns Before 2027 (Part 6)
Governor Petitions: What the Numbers Teach Campaigns Before 2027 (Part 6)

A data-backed legal risk brief for Governor campaigns: filings trend, success rate, and prevention strategy for 2027.

Jun 05, 2025 2 min 9,889
The ORPP Agents Quick Guide: Why Every Party Official in Kenya Needs This Document
The ORPP Agents Quick Guide: Why Every Party Official in Kenya Needs This Document

The ORPP Agents Quick Guide (June 2022) is mandatory reading for every party official, candidate, and polling agent in K...

Jun 01, 2025 7 min 11,463
MANDERA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
MANDERA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for MANDERA: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

Jun 01, 2025 2 min 6,143
The 231,728-Vote Margin: Why 2007 Was Contestable From Day One
The 231,728-Vote Margin: Why 2007 Was Contestable From Day One

A deeper 2007 brief built from validated project data points: presidential totals, parliamentary seat split, petition ba...

Jun 01, 2025 2 min 7,683
Women Representatives: How Jubilee Dominated the 47 County Women Rep Seats
Women Representatives: How Jubilee Dominated the 47 County Women Rep Seats

In the 2017 General Election, Jubilee claimed 25 of 47 county Women Representative seats. ODM trailed with 11. But the r...

May 31, 2025 5 min 11,115
Member of the County Assembly Petitions: What the Numbers Teach Campaigns Before 2027 (Part 5)
Member of the County Assembly Petitions: What the Numbers Teach Campaigns Before 2027 (Part 5)

A data-backed legal risk brief for Member of the County Assembly campaigns: filings trend, success rate, and prevention...

May 29, 2025 2 min 7,859
MAKUENI 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
MAKUENI 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for MAKUENI: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

May 26, 2025 2 min 2,899
2022 County Spotlight: Kakamega — Western Kenya’s Biggest Electorate
2022 County Spotlight: Kakamega — Western Kenya’s Biggest Electorate

With 844,709 registered voters, Kakamega County is Western Kenya's electoral heavyweight. Raila Odinga won it with 71.04...

May 23, 2025 5 min 10,857