Showing 145-156 of 614 posts
Tana River Field Note 34: Mt. Kenya Shockwaves, By-Election Lessons, and the 2027 Ground Game
A county-grounded brief for Tana River using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, r...
Diaspora scale vs narrative: Data Signals Campaign Teams Should Not Ignore Before 2027
A deeper demographic and operations brief on diaspora scale vs narrative with practical steps for 2027 election teams.
2022 County Spotlight: Narok and Kajiado — The Maa Community's Political Voice
In the 2022 presidential election, Narok and Kajiado were the two tightest county-level races in Kenya. Odinga won Narok...
Uhuru's Jubilee Revival and the Mt. Kenya Vote: Who Controls the Bloc in 2027?
Mt. Kenya — Kenya's largest voting bloc with 5.2 million registered voters — has no clear political home for the first t...
Taita Taveta Field Note 33: Mt. Kenya Shockwaves, By-Election Lessons, and the 2027 Ground Game
A county-grounded brief for Taita Taveta using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure,...
30 New Parties, 92 Registered: Kenya's 2027 Party Fragmentation Problem
Kenya now has 92 fully registered political parties, with 30 new ones registered since 2025. Most will never win a seat....
Siaya Field Note 32: Mt. Kenya Shockwaves, By-Election Lessons, and the 2027 Ground Game
A county-grounded brief for Siaya using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regist...
Finance Bill 2026 and the Gen Z Factor: How Youth Anger Could Reshape 2027 Turnout
In June 2024, Gen Z stormed Parliament. In June 2026, Kenya's ruling coalition pushed another Finance Bill through — pro...
Samburu Field Note 31: Mt. Kenya Shockwaves, By-Election Lessons, and the 2027 Ground Game
A county-grounded brief for Samburu using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regi...
LAMU: Stronghold protection vs expansion strategy (Closest Presidential Margins in 2022)
Data-backed campaign playbook for LAMU: turnout trajectory, registration depth, margin risk, and how to plan agents and...
The 2027 Opposition Arithmetic: Can Gachagua, Kalonzo, and Matiang'i Unite Against Ruto?
Kenya's opposition has a maths problem. Rigathi Gachagua (DCP), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper), and Fred Matiang'i (Jubilee) ha...
Nyeri Field Note 30: Mt. Kenya Shockwaves, By-Election Lessons, and the 2027 Ground Game
A county-grounded brief for Nyeri using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regist...