Kenya Election Insights

Data-driven analysis of Kenya's elections from 2007 to 2022

Showing 133-144 of 287 posts

The Agent Communication Hierarchy: How Election Results Flow from Station to Headquarters
The Agent Communication Hierarchy: How Election Results Flow from Station to Headquarters

Kenya's election agent communication hierarchy has four tiers: Polling Station Agent, Constituency Chief Agent, County C...

Mar 22, 2025 6 min 807
2022 County Spotlight: Kiambu — From Kenyatta Country to Ruto Territory
2022 County Spotlight: Kiambu — From Kenyatta Country to Ruto Territory

Kiambu County, home to the Kenyatta dynasty and Kenya’s second-largest electorate at 1.28 million voters, flipped from K...

Mar 22, 2025 5 min 11,966
KERICHO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
KERICHO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for KERICHO: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

Mar 21, 2025 2 min 3,934
KAKAMEGA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
KAKAMEGA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for KAKAMEGA: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams ca...

Mar 15, 2025 2 min 7,513
Presidential Strongholds: Where 90%+ of Voters Chose One Candidate
Presidential Strongholds: Where 90%+ of Voters Chose One Candidate

Kenyan presidential elections are decided in a handful of swing counties. But the story starts in the strongholds, where...

Mar 14, 2025 5 min 4,469
The Orange Wave: How ODM Won 99 Parliamentary Seats in 2007
The Orange Wave: How ODM Won 99 Parliamentary Seats in 2007

In the 2007 parliamentary elections, Raila Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement won 99 out of 210 seats — 47% of the Nati...

Mar 12, 2025 7 min 3,798
KAJIADO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
KAJIADO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for KAJIADO: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

Mar 09, 2025 2 min 7,416
County and National Tallying: The Final Steps to Declaring Kenya's Election Results
County and National Tallying: The Final Steps to Declaring Kenya's Election Results

After constituency tallying, results flow upward to county and national levels. At the county level, Governor, Senator,...

Mar 08, 2025 6 min 4,461
Youth Candidates vs Youth Winners: The 9.2% Success Rate
Youth Candidates vs Youth Winners: The 9.2% Success Rate

In 2017, 3,428 youth candidates ran for elective office in Kenya. Only 314 won — a 9.2% success rate. But the gender bre...

Mar 07, 2025 4 min 5,112
ISIOLO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
ISIOLO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for ISIOLO: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

Mar 03, 2025 2 min 6,046
Youth Power: 51% of Registered Voters Were Under 35 in 2017
Youth Power: 51% of Registered Voters Were Under 35 in 2017

By 2017, youth voters (under 35) made up 51% of Kenya's registered voters — up from 46% in 2013. That is over 10 million...

Feb 28, 2025 3 min 10,950
HOMA BAY 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
HOMA BAY 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for HOMA BAY: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams ca...

Feb 25, 2025 2 min 3,675