2022 County Spotlight: Narok and Kajiado — The Maa Community's Political Voice

Narok: 2.61% margin. Kajiado: 3.28% margin. These two Maa counties were the most competitive battlegrounds in the entire 2022 election.

When analysts talk about swing states in Kenya, they usually point to cosmopolitan counties like Nairobi or contested areas like Trans Nzoia. But the data from 2022 tells a different story. The two closest county-level presidential results in the entire country came from the heart of Maasai country: Narok and Kajiado.

In Narok, Raila Odinga won 159,455 votes (51.70%) against William Ruto's 148,310 votes (48.10%). The margin was just 11,145 votes out of 308,432 valid ballots. In Kajiado, Odinga took 158,556 votes (51.37%) to Ruto's 148,449 (48.11%). The margin there was 10,107 votes out of 308,624 valid ballots.

These margins are extraordinary. In a county like Siaya where Odinga won 98.6%, the result was never in doubt. But in Narok and Kajiado, a shift of roughly 5,500 to 5,600 voters would have flipped either county. For political parties planning for 2027, these are the two counties where ground-level organising could have the biggest payoff.

The 2022 Results Side by Side

Both counties are remarkably similar in size and competitiveness. Narok had 398,852 registered voters and achieved a turnout of 77.73%. Kajiado had 463,389 registered voters and achieved 66.96% turnout. The higher turnout in Narok likely reflects its more rural character, where election day mobilisation tends to be stronger than in peri-urban Kajiado.

But look at the rejected ballots. Narok had 1,597 rejected ballots. Kajiado had 1,647. In races decided by 10,000 to 11,000 votes, even rejected ballots start to matter. If voter education had reduced rejections by half, the margins could have been even tighter.

The Maa community has historically been considered part of the Rift Valley political bloc, which in 2022 leaned heavily toward Ruto. But Narok and Kajiado broke from that pattern. While neighbouring counties like Kericho (95.3% Ruto), Bomet (95.3% Ruto), and Nandi (91.3% Ruto) were deep Ruto territory, the two Maa counties split nearly evenly.

Historical Trend: How the Maa Counties Have Voted

The historical data shows that the Maa counties have always been more competitive than their Rift Valley neighbours. In 2017, Narok gave Kenyatta 149,376 votes (52.98%) and Odinga 129,360 votes (45.89%). The margin was about 7 percentage points. Kajiado in 2017 gave Kenyatta 186,481 (57.17%) and Odinga 138,405 (42.41%), a wider 14.76-point margin.

In 2022, both counties swung toward Odinga. Narok moved from a 7-point Kenyatta lead to a 3.6-point Odinga lead. Kajiado swung even more dramatically, from a 14.8-point Kenyatta advantage to a 3.3-point Odinga win. That is an 18-point swing in Kajiado.

Why the swing? Several factors played a role. First, the Kenyatta factor disappeared. In 2017, the Jubilee coalition's dominant narrative held sway in most of the Rift Valley. Without Kenyatta at the top of the ticket in 2022, the Maa community was free to evaluate candidates on their own terms. Second, Odinga's Azimio coalition actively courted Maasai leaders and incorporated land and pastoralist issues into their campaign messaging.

Competitiveness in Context: The Rift Valley Map

The chart above puts Narok and Kajiado's competitiveness in context against other Rift Valley counties. The contrast is stark. While Elgeyo/Marakwet gave Ruto 96.9%, Nandi gave 91.3%, Kericho gave 95.3%, and Bomet gave 95.3%, the Maa counties were genuinely contested territory.

West Pokot at 63.3% Ruto was the third most competitive Rift Valley county, but even that had a 26-point margin. Nakuru at 66.4% Ruto had a 33-point margin. Narok and Kajiado were on a completely different level of competitiveness.

This has implications for political strategy. The Rift Valley is not a monolithic bloc. The Kalenjin-majority counties are nearly unanimous, but the Maa counties are swing territory. Any coalition that writes off the entire Rift Valley as belonging to one candidate is making a strategic error.

According to the IEBC's official results, these two counties combined had 617,056 valid votes. That is larger than the entire voter population of many counties. Their combined margin of about 21,000 votes for Odinga was a significant contribution to his national total, even though it was not enough to close the overall 233,211-vote gap.

What Drives Maa County Voting?

Several factors make Narok and Kajiado unique in Kenyan electoral politics:

• Land politics: The Maa community's relationship with land tenure is distinct from most of Kenya. Historical land issues, group ranches, and pastoralist concerns create a political dynamic that does not align neatly with either the Rift Valley Kalenjin bloc or the Nyanza-Western opposition coalition.
• Urbanisation in Kajiado: Parts of Kajiado county, particularly Ongata Rongai and Kitengela, have become Nairobi dormitory towns. The influx of non-Maasai residents adds cosmopolitan diversity to the voter register.
• Tourism economy: The Maasai Mara in Narok and Amboseli in Kajiado tie these counties to the tourism sector, creating economic interests that differ from the agricultural economy of the Kalenjin Rift Valley.
• Cross-ethnic alliances: Both counties have significant non-Maasai populations, including Kipsigis, Kikuyu, and Kisii communities, making them more ethnically diverse than most Rift Valley counties.

For further context on the tight margins across the 2022 election, read our analysis of the national presidential result and how close races at every level defined the election.

The 2027 Outlook

If 2022 is any guide, Narok and Kajiado will again be pivotal in 2027. The party or coalition that wins these two counties will be the one that takes pastoralist issues seriously, invests in ground-level organising, and recognises that the Maa community votes on issues, not just ethnic solidarity.

With Kenya Law precedent affirming that county-level results can be scrutinised in petition courts, parties must ensure clean processes in every one of these counties' polling stations. When the margin is 10,000 votes, even minor irregularities at a handful of stations could trigger a legal challenge.

Do not leave swing counties to chance. Votrack gives political teams real-time visibility into every polling station in Narok, Kajiado, and all 47 counties. Track your agents, monitor turnout, and tally results as they come in. Request a demo for 2027.