2022: Ruto vs Odinga — The Closest Presidential Race Since 2013

233,211 votes. That’s all that separated Kenya’s 5th president from the opposition. In a country of 22 million registered voters, the gap between William Ruto and Raila Odinga was just 1.64 percentage points. This was the closest presidential election Kenya had seen since Uhuru Kenyatta scraped past the 50%+1 threshold by 0.07% in 2013.

On 9th August 2022, Kenyans went to the polls for what became a genuine two-horse race. William Ruto of UDA won with 7,176,141 votes (50.49%). Raila Odinga of Azimio came in at 6,942,930 votes (48.85%). George Wajackoyah picked up 61,969 votes (0.44%) and David Mwaure took 31,987 (0.23%). Out of 22,120,458 registered voters, only 14,326,751 showed up — a turnout of just 64.77%.

Let’s break down where these votes came from.

The National Picture: A Divided Country

The pie chart tells you the headline. But headlines don’t win elections — counties do. And when you look county by county, you see a story of political strongholds, slim battlegrounds, and a few places where the outcome could have gone either way.

Ruto’s strongest showing was in the Rift Valley and Mt. Kenya regions. He won 95.3% in Kericho (318,861 votes), 95.3% in Bomet (285,428), and 96.9% in Elgeyo/Marakwet (160,033). These are numbers that look like referendum results, not competitive elections.

Odinga’s strongholds were equally dominant. He took 98.9% in Homa Bay (399,784 votes), 98.6% in Siaya (371,092), and 97.4% in Kisumu (419,997). In these three Luo Nyanza counties alone, Odinga racked up 1,190,873 votes to Ruto’s 17,828.

This is the pattern that has defined Kenyan elections since 2007. Ethnic strongholds deliver overwhelming numbers, and the presidency is decided by how candidates perform in the swing regions.

Where the Election Was Really Decided

The real action was in the counties where neither candidate had a lock. Here are the 7 counties decided by less than 15 percentage points:

Marsabit was the closest county in the entire country. Ruto edged Odinga by just 3,107 votes — a margin of 2.70%. In a county of 166,944 registered voters, that’s razor thin.

Kajiado went to Odinga by 10,107 votes (3.27% margin). Narok also went to Odinga by 11,145 votes (3.61%). These Maasai-majority counties were genuine toss-ups that could have gone either way with a few thousand more votes.

Trans Nzoia leaned Odinga by 15,664 votes (6.25%), while Lamu went to Odinga by 3,284 votes (6.56%). Isiolo went to Ruto by 5,853 votes (9.92%), and Tana River went to Odinga by 9,885 votes (10.57%).

If you’re a political strategist planning for 2027, these seven counties should be circled in red on your map. They are where elections are won and lost.

The Mt. Kenya Shift

One of the biggest stories of 2022 was the Mt. Kenya shift. In 2017, this region voted overwhelmingly for Uhuru Kenyatta (Jubilee). In 2022, they switched to Ruto — but not as dramatically.

Take Kiambu, Kenya’s second-largest county. In 2017, Kenyatta won 912,588 votes (92.6% of valid votes). In 2022, Ruto won 606,429 votes (73.5%). That’s still a landslide, but the margin dropped from 843,398 to 395,849 votes. Odinga’s Kiambu vote tripled from 69,190 in 2017 to 210,580 in 2022.

The pattern repeated across Mt. Kenya. Nyeri went from 98.4% for Kenyatta to 83.4% for Ruto. Kirinyaga dropped from 98.6% (Kenyatta) to 84.7% (Ruto). Murang’a went from 97.9% to 81.7%. The region still voted Ruto, but the margins shrank significantly.

This matters because it shows that voter loyalty is not permanently guaranteed. The 2027 candidate who can make further inroads in Mt. Kenya could fundamentally change the electoral math.

Registration vs Turnout: The Missing Voters

One of the most striking patterns in 2022 was the disconnect between registration and turnout. Nairobi had 2,416,551 registered voters but only 55.96% turnout — meaning over 1 million Nairobians didn’t vote. Mombasa was even worse at 43.76% turnout.

Compare that with the Rift Valley. Bomet hit 79.88% turnout. West Pokot managed 79.51%. Kericho was at 78.56%. The counties that turned out in force were also the counties that voted most heavily for Ruto.

This is not a coincidence. Turnout wins elections. If Odinga’s strongholds in the Coast and Nairobi had matched Rift Valley turnout levels, the 233,211-vote gap could have evaporated.

According to the IEBC’s Post-Election Evaluation Report, the national turnout of 64.77% was a sharp decline from 78% in 2017. The report flagged low voter turnout as a significant concern and recommended research into the factors driving voter apathy.

What the Numbers Tell Us About 2027

History does not repeat, but it rhymes. In 2013, Kenyatta won by 0.07% above the 50%+1 threshold. In 2022, Ruto won by a margin that looks comfortable in votes (233,211) but thin in percentage terms (1.64%). Read our analysis of the 2013 razor-thin result to see how tight margins have defined Kenyan elections.

Here’s what the data suggests for the next cycle:

1. Swing counties are worth more than strongholds. Ruto’s margin in Elgeyo/Marakwet (96.9%) cannot go higher. But winning Marsabit by 3,107 or losing Narok by 11,145 — those are margins that could flip.
2. Turnout is the hidden variable. The 7.8 million registered voters who stayed home are a bigger prize than converting voters in strongholds.
3. Mt. Kenya is not permanent territory. The drop from 92% (Kenyatta 2017) to 73% (Ruto 2022) in Kiambu shows voter mobility is real.

For a deep dive into the two most competitive counties, see our analysis of Narok and Kajiado’s razor-thin margins.

The Kenya Law Reports archive of the subsequent Supreme Court petition (Raila Odinga v IEBC, 2022) upheld Ruto’s election, finding that the irregularities cited did not materially affect the result. But with a margin this slim, even small changes in a few counties could produce a very different outcome next time.

Don’t just watch the next election. Track it. Votrack gives political parties and election observers real-time county-by-county tallying across all six positions. When the margin is 233,211 votes nationally, you need to know what’s happening at every polling station. Request a demo and get ready for 2027.