The Two Battleground Counties: Narok and Kajiado Were Decided by Less Than 3%

Narok was decided by 11,145 votes. Kajiado by 10,107. In counties with nearly 400,000 and 460,000 registered voters respectively, these margins are thin enough to make a campaign strategist lose sleep. These two Maasai-majority counties were the tightest large-population battlegrounds in Kenya's 2022 presidential election.

When people talk about elections being won or lost, they usually point to the big numbers: the millions of votes in Nairobi or Kiambu. But elections are really won in places like Narok and Kajiado, where a shift of 2-3% in either direction flips the result entirely.

Let’s dig into the numbers.

Narok: Odinga by 11,145 Votes

Narok County had 398,852 registered voters in 2022. Turnout was a solid 77.73% — well above the national average of 64.77%. The county clearly cared about this election.

Here’s how the vote broke down:

• Raila Odinga (Azimio): 159,455 votes (51.70%)
• William Ruto (UDA): 148,310 votes (48.09%)
• George Wajackoyah: 439 votes (0.14%)
• David Mwaure: 228 votes (0.07%)
• Rejected ballots: 1,597

The margin was 11,145 votes — a gap of just 3.61 percentage points. To put that in perspective, that’s roughly the population of a single large polling centre. If about 5,600 Narok voters had switched from Odinga to Ruto, the county would have flipped.

This was a shift from 2017. In the August 2017 election, Kenyatta won Narok with 149,376 votes (53.0%) to Odinga’s 129,360 (45.9%) — a margin of 20,016 votes for the Jubilee side. So between 2017 and 2022, Narok moved more than 31,000 votes toward the Odinga/Azimio camp. That’s a swing of about 7 percentage points.

Kajiado: Odinga by 10,107 Votes

Kajiado County is larger by registration, with 463,389 registered voters. Turnout was 66.96% — decent but below Narok’s level.

The breakdown:

• Raila Odinga (Azimio): 158,556 votes (51.38%)
• William Ruto (UDA): 148,449 votes (48.10%)
• George Wajackoyah: 933 votes (0.30%)
• David Mwaure: 686 votes (0.22%)
• Rejected ballots: 1,647

The margin was 10,107 votes — just 3.27 percentage points. Even tighter than Narok.

In 2017, Kajiado went for Kenyatta with 186,481 votes (57.2%) to Odinga’s 138,405 (42.4%). The swing from 2017 to 2022 was massive — Odinga gained roughly 20,000 votes while the Kenyatta/Ruto side lost nearly 40,000. That’s a swing of about 9 percentage points.

Why These Two Counties Swing

Narok and Kajiado share some key characteristics that make them genuine battlegrounds:

1. Ethnic diversity. Both counties are historically Maasai-majority, but urbanisation has brought in significant populations from other communities. Kajiado’s proximity to Nairobi means it has a particularly diverse electorate.
2. High turnout. Narok at 77.73% and Kajiado at 66.96% both show engaged electorates. These are not apathetic counties.
3. Governor politics. Local races influence presidential voting. The governor races in both counties were competitive, bringing out voters who might otherwise have stayed home.
4. Economic interests. The Mara ecosystem, livestock economy, and land politics all create cross-cutting interests that don’t neatly align with any one presidential candidate.

The IEBC’s county-level data shows that both counties had relatively low rejected ballot rates (1,597 in Narok, 1,647 in Kajiado), suggesting well-run elections. The issue was not voter confusion — it was genuine competition.

All Counties Within 15% Margin

Narok and Kajiado were not alone. Across Kenya, seven counties were decided by less than 15 percentage points. These are the true battleground counties of Kenyan presidential politics:

Marsabit was actually the closest county by percentage (2.70%), but its small registration of 166,944 voters means the raw vote margin was just 3,107. The interesting story is how Marsabit flipped to Ruto while neighbouring Isiolo also went Ruto (by 9.92%). The northeastern corridor was not uniformly Odinga territory in 2022.

Trans Nzoia (6.25% margin, Odinga) is another county to watch. With 399,230 registered voters, it’s a substantial prize. Odinga’s 15,664-vote margin there was built on Luhya community support, but Ruto’s inroads from the Kalenjin population made it competitive.

Lamu (6.56%, Odinga by 3,284 votes) has always been politically divided between its indigenous coastal communities and settlers. Tana River (10.57%, Odinga by 9,885 votes) straddles the coast and northeastern political traditions.

The 2017 vs 2022 Shift

What makes Narok and Kajiado particularly fascinating is the size of the swing between elections. In 2017, both counties were in the Kenyatta/Jubilee column. By 2022, both had shifted to Odinga/Azimio. The key question is whether this was a genuine realignment or a one-off driven by the specific dynamics of the Ruto-Odinga contest.

Looking at the data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), both counties have experienced rapid population growth and urbanisation. Kajiado’s population has been growing at nearly 6% annually, driven by Nairobi’s expansion. New residents bring new political preferences.

For our full analysis of the national presidential race, see Ruto vs Odinga: The Closest Race Since 2013. And for context on how tight Kenya’s elections have historically been, read the 2013 presidential race decided by 0.07%.

What This Means for 2027

Here is the bottom line for anyone planning a 2027 campaign:

1. Narok and Kajiado are the definition of swing counties. They went Kenyatta in 2017 and Odinga in 2022. They could go either way in 2027.
2. The margins are smaller than most people think. 10,107 votes in Kajiado. That’s 33 votes per polling station on average. One good agent per station could make the difference.
3. Turnout matters enormously. Kajiado’s 66.96% turnout means 153,118 registered voters didn’t vote. If those voters had split even slightly differently, the county flips.
4. Ground-level monitoring is critical. In a county this close, irregularities at even a few polling stations can change the outcome. Parallel vote tallying is not a luxury — it’s a necessity.

Kenya’s elections are won county by county. And in counties like Narok and Kajiado, they’re won polling station by polling station.

Ready to track results at the polling station level? Votrack’s parallel vote tallying platform deploys agents to every station in your target counties. In Narok’s 2022 election, the presidential margin was just 11,145 votes across the entire county. That’s why real-time station-level data matters. Request a demo and build your 2027 ground game.