The 2013 Presidential Race: Kenyatta Won by 0.07% Above the 50%+1 Threshold

Uhuru Kenyatta's margin over the 50%+1 threshold was just 8,418 votes out of 12.3 million. That's 0.07%. In any other scenario, Kenya would have gone to a runoff.

The 2013 presidential election was Kenya's first under the new 2010 Constitution. For the first time, a candidate needed more than half the valid votes cast to win outright. Eight candidates contested. Only one cleared the bar — barely.

The Final Numbers

The IEBC declared Uhuru Kenyatta the winner with 6,173,433 votes (50.07%). Raila Odinga came second with 5,340,546 votes (43.31%). Musalia Mudavadi placed third with 483,981 votes (3.93%).

The total valid votes cast were 12,221,053. The 50%+1 threshold was therefore 6,110,527 votes. Kenyatta cleared it by just 8,418 votes — a margin of 0.07%.

Here is how all eight candidates performed:

The remaining five candidates — Peter Kenneth (72,786), Mohamed Dida (52,848), Martha Karua (43,881), James ole Kiyiapi (40,998), and Paul Muite (12,580) — combined for just 223,093 votes (1.83%).

County-by-County: Where the Votes Came From

Kenyatta's victory was built on massive margins in Central Kenya and the Rift Valley. His top five counties by raw votes were:

1. Kiambu: 705,185 votes (90.8% of the county's valid votes)
2. Nairobi: 659,490 votes (47.2% — split with Odinga's 691,156)
3. Nakuru: 494,239 votes (80.9%)
4. Murang'a: 406,334 votes (96.5%)
5. Meru: 384,290 votes (90.3%)

Odinga's strongholds were in Nyanza, Western, and parts of Eastern Kenya. His top counties:

1. Nairobi: 691,156 votes (49.4%)
2. Kisumu: 337,232 votes (97.2%)
3. Machakos: 319,594 votes (87.0%)
4. Homa Bay: 303,447 votes (99.3%)
5. Kakamega: 303,120 votes (64.8%)

The Turnout Story: Central Kenya's 92%

No region in Kenya voted at a higher rate than Central in 2013. The five Central counties — Kiambu, Murang'a, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, and Nyandarua — registered a combined turnout of 92%. Nyandarua, Nyeri, and Murang'a each hit 93%.

This matters because high turnout in a stronghold translates directly to more raw votes. Central alone delivered over 2 million votes, with Kenyatta winning more than 96% of them.

Compare this to the national average of 86%. Nairobi, Kenya's most populated county, had a turnout of just 81%. Mombasa was even lower at 66%.

Central hit 92% turnout when Kenyatta ran — the highest in Kenya. This is the clearest proof that a candidate's hometown directly affects outcomes.

The Election Petition

With such a thin margin, Raila Odinga challenged the result. The Supreme Court (Petition No. 5 of 2013) heard the case. The key question: should rejected ballots be included in the total when calculating the 50%+1 threshold?

The court ruled unanimously:

• The elections were conducted in compliance with the Constitution
• Kenyatta and Ruto were validly elected
• Rejected votes should not be included in the final tally

There were 108,975 rejected ballots. If those had been included in the denominator, Kenyatta's percentage would have dropped below 50%+1. The court's decision on this technical point preserved the result.

What the Data Tells Us

The 2013 presidential race proved three things about Kenyan elections:

1. Turnout wins elections. Central Kenya's 92% turnout was 6 points above the national average. Those extra voters were almost entirely Kenyatta's.
2. The 50%+1 rule creates knife-edge outcomes. A shift of 8,419 votes across 290 constituencies would have forced a runoff.
3. Legal definitions matter. Whether rejected ballots count in the denominator is not an academic question. In 2013, it was the difference between a first-round win and a second round.

In 2017, Kenyatta would win by a wider margin of 54.27%. But the 2013 result remains the closest any president has come to missing the threshold. See also how the 2017 fresh election produced a 98.26% result when Odinga boycotted.

What This Pattern Means for 2027

Historical election numbers are most useful when they are turned into field actions. For The 2013 Presidential Race: Kenyatta Won by 0.07% Above the 50%+1 Threshold, your campaign can use this history to decide where to invest agents, transport, and voter mobilisation before election day.

• Set target turnout by ward: Use past turnout as your baseline, then assign a realistic uplift target for each ward and polling centre.
• Track strongholds hour by hour: If turnout in your core areas is below plan by midday, deploy rapid mobilisation teams early, not late.
• Protect evidence quality: Keep a clean chain of results forms, incident notes, and station-level logs to support legal review if needed.

For primary reference material, review the IEBC official resources, Kenya Law election jurisprudence, and the IEBC election regulations.

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