The Fresh Election That Changed Everything: October 2017's 98.26% Result

When Raila boycotted the fresh election, turnout fell by 48% overnight. 7 million voters stayed home.

On 1st September 2017, the Supreme Court of Kenya made history. It nullified the presidential election results, ruling that the IEBC had committed "irregularities and illegalities" in the transmission of results. It ordered a fresh election within 60 days.

No court in Africa had ever overturned a presidential election. The world was watching.

The Boycott That Changed Everything

Raila Odinga initially agreed to participate in the fresh election scheduled for 26th October 2017. But he withdrew, demanding reforms at the IEBC that were never implemented. His name remained on the ballot — the law required it — but he told his supporters to stay home.

They listened.

In August, 15,114,622 valid votes had been cast. In October, that number fell to 7,616,217. That is a drop of 7,498,405 votes — a 49.6% decline.

The 98.26% Result

With the opposition boycotting, Uhuru Kenyatta won 7,483,895 votes — 98.26% of the valid votes cast. The remaining candidates received a tiny fraction:

• Raila Odinga: 73,228 votes (0.96%) — despite boycotting
• Ekuru Aukot: 21,333 votes (0.28%)
• Mohamed Abduba Dida: 14,107 votes (0.19%)
• Japheth Kaluyu: 8,261 votes (0.11%)
• Michael Mwaura: 6,007 votes (0.08%)
• Joseph Nyagah: 5,554 votes (0.07%)
• Shakhalaga Jirongo: 3,832 votes (0.05%)

Even though Odinga boycotted, 73,228 people still voted for him. His name was on the ballot, and in some areas voters chose him regardless of the boycott call.

Where Did the Voters Go?

The biometric verification data tells the story. In August, 14,641,973 voters were electronically verified — 13,616,129 biometrically and 1,025,844 using the presiding officer's account. In October, only 7,575,806 were verified — 7,364,360 biometrically and 211,446 by presiding officers.

That is a drop of 7,066,167 electronically verified voters. The biometric verification rate actually improved slightly in October (97.2% vs 93.0%), likely because the voters who did show up were in areas with better infrastructure.

The biggest turnout drops were in opposition strongholds. Counties like Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, and Migori — where Odinga had won over 95% in August — saw turnout collapse. In some polling stations, fewer than 10 people voted.

Kenyatta's Vote Actually Dropped Too

A detail often missed: Kenyatta received fewer votes in October than in August. He went from 8,203,290 to 7,483,895 — a decrease of 719,395 votes. Even in his own strongholds, turnout was lower. The boycott affected the entire country, not just opposition areas.

But his percentage skyrocketed from 54.27% to 98.26%. When your opponent does not compete, you win by default.

The Constitutional Crisis

The October election created a constitutional crisis. Could an election where the main challenger boycotted be legitimate? The Supreme Court upheld the October results on 20th November 2017, ruling that Kenyatta had been validly elected.

Two justices dissented. Justice Njoki Ndung'u and Justice Jackton Ojwang argued that the irregularities from August had not been addressed. But the majority held that the fresh election had been conducted in compliance with the constitution.

Odinga refused to accept the result. On 30th January 2018, he held a mock "inauguration" at Uhuru Park, swearing himself in as "the people's president." The political standoff continued until the famous "handshake" between Kenyatta and Odinga on 9th March 2018.

What the Numbers Tell Us

The October 2017 election is a case study in what happens when a major candidate boycotts:

1. Turnout collapses: 7.5 million fewer voters participated
2. Results become meaningless statistically: 98.26% is not a real competitive result
3. Even the winner loses votes: Kenyatta got 719,395 fewer votes than August
4. Boycotts work in suppressing turnout but do not change the legal outcome
5. 73,228 people voted for Odinga anyway — showing boycotts are never total

Read about the court decision that started it all: The 2017 Supreme Court Annulment: What the Numbers Say.

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