2022 County Spotlight: Kisumu and Homa Bay — Odinga’s Lakeside Fortress

Homa Bay gave Raila Odinga 98.93% of the valid vote in 2022. That is the highest percentage any candidate received in any county in the entire election. Next door, Kisumu gave him 97.45%. Together, these two Lakeside counties form the most impenetrable electoral fortress in Kenya. No other region in the country comes close to this level of single-candidate dominance.

But dominance has its own questions. When one candidate takes over 97% of the vote, what does that mean for democratic competition? And does it actually translate into maximum political influence?

The 2022 Presidential Results

Kisumu County:

• Raila Odinga (Azimio): 419,997 votes (97.45%)
• William Ruto (UDA): 10,011 votes (2.32%)
• George Wajackoyah: 744 votes (0.17%)
• David Mwaure: 253 votes (0.06%)
• Total valid votes: 431,005
• Rejected ballots: 2,572
• Registered voters: 607,496
• Turnout: 71.37%

Homa Bay County:

• Raila Odinga (Azimio): 399,784 votes (98.93%)
• William Ruto (UDA): 3,497 votes (0.87%)
• George Wajackoyah: 709 votes (0.18%)
• David Mwaure: 122 votes (0.03%)
• Total valid votes: 404,112
• Rejected ballots: 2,045
• Registered voters: 551,111
• Turnout: 73.70%

The numbers are staggering. In Homa Bay, Ruto received only 3,497 votes across the entire county. That is fewer votes than some individual polling stations receive in Nairobi. In Kisumu, his 10,011 votes were barely 2% of the total. Combined, Odinga won 819,781 votes to Ruto’s 13,508 — a margin of 806,273 votes.

Cross-Election Comparison: 2017 vs 2022

Odinga’s dominance in these two counties is not new, but it has intensified:

Kisumu:

• 2017: Odinga 369,963 (84.2%), Kenyatta 7,411 (1.7%)
• 2022: Odinga 419,997 (97.45%), Ruto 10,011 (2.32%)
• Odinga’s share rose 13.25 percentage points

Homa Bay:

• 2017: Odinga 400,351 (99.3%), Kenyatta 1,960 (0.5%)
• 2022: Odinga 399,784 (98.93%), Ruto 3,497 (0.87%)
• Virtually identical — Homa Bay was already at ceiling

In Kisumu, the interesting shift is that Odinga actually gained 50,034 more votes in 2022 than in 2017, even while his national vote declined. Turnout in Kisumu was 71.37% — well above the national average of 64.77%. This suggests that Kisumu voters were more motivated to turn out in 2022, possibly because Odinga was the principal candidate rather than a coalition partner.

In Homa Bay, the result barely changed. Odinga received 399,784 in 2022 versus 400,351 in 2017 — a difference of just 567 votes. Homa Bay’s loyalty was already absolute and remained so.

The Turnout Advantage

One area where these counties stand out is turnout. Both Kisumu (71.37%) and Homa Bay (73.70%) significantly outperformed the national average of 64.77%. Neighbouring Siaya (70.89%) and Migori (74.49%) were similarly high.

This means the Nyanza region is not just one-sided — it is also highly mobilised. According to the IEBC’s post-election evaluation, the Nyanza region consistently records higher-than-average turnout, driven by strong community mobilisation networks and deep personal connection to the Odinga political brand.

Compare this to Nairobi (55.96%) or Mombasa (43.76%), where Odinga also won but turnout was dramatically lower. If those urban counties matched Kisumu’s turnout rate, the national result could have been very different.

What 98.93% Actually Means

A 98.93% result is extraordinary in any democracy. For context:

• The next highest Odinga county was Siaya at 98.60%
• The highest Ruto county was Kericho at 95.32%
• Even Ruto’s best could not match Homa Bay’s level of uniformity

This level of political homogeneity has implications. On one hand, it means reliable vote banks that candidates can count on. On the other hand, it can lead to political neglect — when a county’s vote is certain, the incentive for national candidates to invest in local development promises diminishes.

The Standard Digital’s analysis of the 2022 results noted that Nyanza’s overwhelming support for Odinga was both his greatest asset and his constraint — the votes were already maximised, leaving no room for growth in the region.

Lessons for 2027

Kisumu and Homa Bay teach three important lessons:

1. Ceiling effects are real. When you are at 98.93%, there is literally nowhere to grow. Future growth for any Nyanza-based candidate must come from outside the region.
2. Turnout is the only lever. Odinga’s vote share in Homa Bay cannot increase, but turnout can. The 26.3% of registered voters who didn’t turn out represent the only untapped resource.
3. Rejected ballots still matter. Kisumu had 2,572 and Homa Bay had 2,045 rejected ballots. In a county where the margin is 96+ points, this seems trivial. But nationally, Odinga lost by 233,211 votes — every rejected ballot in a stronghold is a lost contribution to the national tally.

For the complete national picture, read our analysis of the 2022 presidential race. The Kenya Law Reports also document the legal thresholds and petition precedents that govern how stronghold results are verified.

Kisumu and Homa Bay have over 2,000 polling stations combined. When the margin is this large, the real question is not who wins but whether every valid vote gets counted. Votrack’s parallel tallying system ensures no station goes unreported and no result gets lost in transmission. Request a demo and protect every vote in your stronghold.