Kenya Election Insights

Data-driven analysis of Kenya's elections from 2007 to 2022

Showing 265-276 of 414 posts

The Orange Wave: How ODM Won 99 Parliamentary Seats in 2007
The Orange Wave: How ODM Won 99 Parliamentary Seats in 2007

In the 2007 parliamentary elections, Raila Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement won 99 out of 210 seats — 47% of the Nati...

Mar 12, 2025 7 min 932
KAJIADO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
KAJIADO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for KAJIADO: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

Mar 09, 2025 2 min 10,109
County and National Tallying: The Final Steps to Declaring Kenya's Election Results
County and National Tallying: The Final Steps to Declaring Kenya's Election Results

After constituency tallying, results flow upward to county and national levels. At the county level, Governor, Senator,...

Mar 08, 2025 6 min 4,666
Youth Candidates vs Youth Winners: The 9.2% Success Rate
Youth Candidates vs Youth Winners: The 9.2% Success Rate

In 2017, 3,428 youth candidates ran for elective office in Kenya. Only 314 won — a 9.2% success rate. But the gender bre...

Mar 07, 2025 4 min 7,428
ISIOLO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
ISIOLO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for ISIOLO: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

Mar 03, 2025 2 min 722
Youth Power: 51% of Registered Voters Were Under 35 in 2017
Youth Power: 51% of Registered Voters Were Under 35 in 2017

By 2017, youth voters (under 35) made up 51% of Kenya's registered voters — up from 46% in 2013. That is over 10 million...

Feb 28, 2025 3 min 1,431
HOMA BAY 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
HOMA BAY 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for HOMA BAY: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams ca...

Feb 25, 2025 2 min 1,239
Constituency Tallying in Kenya: How Results Move from Stations to Declaration
Constituency Tallying in Kenya: How Results Move from Stations to Declaration

At the constituency tallying center, the Returning Officer receives forms from every polling station, verifies seals and...

Feb 22, 2025 6 min 7,997
Governors by the Numbers: Jubilee's 25-County Sweep in 2017
Governors by the Numbers: Jubilee's 25-County Sweep in 2017

In the 2017 general election, Jubilee Party dominated the governor's race with 25 out of 47 seats. ODM took 13, while tw...

Feb 22, 2025 4 min 2,353
From 210 MPs to 8 Provinces: How the Old Electoral System Worked
From 210 MPs to 8 Provinces: How the Old Electoral System Worked

Kenya's pre-2010 constitution electoral system was radically different from what exists today. The country was divided i...

Feb 20, 2025 7 min 5,733
GARISSA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
GARISSA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for GARISSA: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

Feb 19, 2025 2 min 8,793
The Gender Gap: How Female Voter Registration Dropped from 49% to 46.6%
The Gender Gap: How Female Voter Registration Dropped from 49% to 46.6%

Female voter registration in Kenya dropped from 49% in 2013 to 46.6% in 2017. Despite adding nearly 2 million women to t...

Feb 15, 2025 5 min 5,326