Kenya Election Insights

Data-driven analysis of Kenya's elections from 2007 to 2022

Filtering by: 2022-election ×

Showing 157-168 of 173 posts

Kisumu's 98% Loyalty: Inside Kenya's Most Predictable Stronghold
Kisumu's 98% Loyalty: Inside Kenya's Most Predictable Stronghold

Kisumu gave Raila Odinga 97.5% of the presidential vote in 2022 — almost identical to 2017 and 2013. What drives this ex...

Oct 18, 2022 3 min 4,442
Governor Sakaja vs Igathe: The Most Expensive City Campaign in Kenyan History
Governor Sakaja vs Igathe: The Most Expensive City Campaign in Kenyan History

The 2022 Nairobi governor race between Johnson Sakaja (Kenya Kwanza) and Polycarp Igathe (Azimio) was the most expensive...

Oct 18, 2022 6 min 7,636
The Kenyatta Succession: How Uhuru's Endorsement of Raila Backfired
The Kenyatta Succession: How Uhuru's Endorsement of Raila Backfired

No sitting Kenyan president has ever successfully handed power to a chosen successor outside their deputy. Uhuru tried w...

Oct 14, 2022 5 min 10,778
William Ruto's Hustler Narrative: How a Campaign Slogan Became a Movement
William Ruto's Hustler Narrative: How a Campaign Slogan Became a Movement

The 'hustler vs dynasty' framing was dismissed by pundits as populist nonsense. But Ruto's bottom-up economic model reso...

Oct 05, 2022 4 min 3,618
Rural vs Urban: How City Voters and Village Voters Split in 2022
Rural vs Urban: How City Voters and Village Voters Split in 2022

City voters and rural voters didn't just pick different candidates in 2022 — they showed up at dramatically different ra...

Oct 05, 2022 3 min 10,858
Voter Turnout Crisis: Why 5 Million Registered Voters Stayed Home in 2022
Voter Turnout Crisis: Why 5 Million Registered Voters Stayed Home in 2022

Kenya's 2022 voter turnout of 65.4% marked a troubling decline from 2013's 85.9%. Nearly 8 million registered voters sta...

Oct 02, 2022 3 min 8,639
How UDA Swept the Rift Valley: A Ward-Level Analysis
How UDA Swept the Rift Valley: A Ward-Level Analysis

William Ruto's UDA party won every single gubernatorial race in the Rift Valley, swept parliamentary seats, and delivere...

Sep 28, 2022 4 min 9,827
The Servers Controversy: Real-Time Results Transmission in 2022
The Servers Controversy: Real-Time Results Transmission in 2022

The 2022 results transmission system was Kenya's most advanced yet — KIEMS kits, 4G backup, and real-time portal uploads...

Sep 28, 2022 4 min 10,429
Presidential Results by Constituency: A Granular Look at 2022
Presidential Results by Constituency: A Granular Look at 2022

Breaking down the 2022 presidential results across all 290 constituencies reveals patterns hidden in county-level data....

Sep 22, 2022 5 min 686
Martha Karua Effect: Did She Move Votes in Central Kenya?
Martha Karua Effect: Did She Move Votes in Central Kenya?

When Raila Odinga picked Martha Karua as his running mate, it was hailed as a masterstroke. A respected Kikuyu woman fro...

Sep 20, 2022 4 min 7,911
How Kenya Kwanza Built a Winning Coalition: Lessons in Alliance Arithmetic
How Kenya Kwanza Built a Winning Coalition: Lessons in Alliance Arithmetic

Kenya Kwanza brought together UDA, ANC, Ford-Kenya, and smaller parties into a coalition that covered every region and c...

Sep 18, 2022 4 min 7,944
Election Night Timeline: A Minute-by-Minute Account of August 9, 2022
Election Night Timeline: A Minute-by-Minute Account of August 9, 2022

From the moment polls closed at 5pm on August 9, 2022, Kenya entered a 96-hour limbo. The IEBC's results transmission sy...

Sep 15, 2022 6 min 10,729