Nairobi 2022: How the Capital's 2.2 Million Voters Split Their Tickets

Nairobi is not like the rest of Kenya. In a country where most voters pick one party and vote straight down the ticket, the capital's 2.2 million registered voters have developed an independent streak that confounds political strategists. In 2022, this independence produced the most sophisticated ticket-splitting anywhere in the country.

The Presidential Split

The presidential race in Nairobi was a knife fight:

• William Ruto: 563,497 votes (50.8%)
• Raila Odinga: 534,235 votes (48.1%)
• Margin: 29,262 votes — just 2.6%

Nairobi essentially split 50-50, making it the most competitive county in the presidential race. This near-even split is unique for Kenya, where most counties deliver lopsided results.

The Governor's Race: Sakaja's Coalition

For governor, Kenya Kwanza's Johnson Sakaja defeated Azimio's Polycarp Igathe convincingly:

• Sakaja (UDA): 699,392 votes (51.4%)
• Igathe (Jubilee/Azimio): 575,293 votes (42.3%)
• Margin: 124,099 votes

Sakaja outperformed Ruto in Nairobi by approximately 136,000 votes, meaning a significant number of voters who chose Raila for president crossed over to pick Sakaja for governor. This cross-party voting is almost unheard of in rural Kenya.

The Parliamentary Mosaic

Nairobi's 17 constituencies produced a patchwork of results that defied neat coalition narratives:

• UDA/Kenya Kwanza wins: 8 constituencies (Westlands, Dagoretti North, Ruaraka, Roysambu, Kasarani, Starehe, Embakasi North, Langata)
• Azimio wins: 9 constituencies (Embakasi East, Embakasi West, Embakasi South, Embakasi Central, Kamukunji, Mathare, Kibra, Makadara, Dagoretti South)

The pattern was broadly economic: wealthier constituencies in the north and west went Kenya Kwanza, while working-class areas in the east and south went Azimio. But within each constituency, the margins were often razor-thin.

The Kibra Factor

Kibra — Kenya's most politically significant slum — was firmly in Azimio's column, with Raila taking 78.2% of the presidential vote. But even here, ticket-splitting occurred: the Jubilee-affiliated MP candidate outperformed Raila's raw vote share, pulling votes from non-Azimio presidential voters.

Demographic Divides

Nairobi's voting patterns in 2022 tracked closely with demographic indicators:

• Income: Higher-income areas (Karen, Runda, Lavington) leaned Kenya Kwanza by 60-65%
• Density: High-density areas (Eastlands, Mathare, Kibera) leaned Azimio by 55-70%
• Age: Younger precincts showed lower turnout but marginally more support for Ruto
• Ethnicity: Still the strongest predictor — Kikuyu-majority areas went Ruto, Luo-majority areas went Raila, mixed areas split

Why Ticket-Splitting Matters

Nairobi's ticket-splitting behavior has implications beyond the county:

1. It proves ethnic voting isn't destiny. In a cosmopolitan environment, voters make different calculations for different positions. They might vote for a Kalenjin president and a Kikuyu governor and a Luo MP — if each candidate is seen as best for that specific role.

2. It rewards strong local candidates. Sakaja's 136,000-vote overperformance against Ruto's Nairobi result shows that gubernatorial candidates with strong local profiles can outrun their party's presidential nominee.

3. It's a model for Kenya's future. As urbanization increases — Kenya is projected to be 50% urban by 2030 — ticket-splitting may become more common nationally, weakening party discipline and strengthening issue-based voting.

Turnout: The Missing Voters

Nairobi's biggest story might be who didn't vote. With 2.2 million registered voters, only 1.15 million actually cast ballots — a turnout of just 52.1%. That means 1.05 million registered Nairobians — nearly half — stayed home. In many Eastlands constituencies, turnout was below 45%.

This massive non-participation makes Nairobi the sleeping giant of Kenyan politics. If mobilized, those 1.05 million voters could swing not just the county but the national outcome.

See constituency-level results for all 17 Nairobi seats. See Jubilee's 2017 Nairobi results on our live portal, or request a Votrack demo for 2022 data.