Bungoma and Kakamega: The Western Kenya Tug-of-War Between ANC and ODM

Western Kenya has been a political no-man's-land for a decade — too divided between ODM and ANC to deliver a unified bloc, too large to ignore. In 2022, Musalia Mudavadi's dramatic defection to Kenya Kwanza at the infamous Bomas rally in January split the region even further. The result: Kakamega and Bungoma, the two largest Luhya-majority counties, voted in opposite directions for the first time in modern Kenyan electoral history.

Kakamega (population ~1.9 million, registered voters 635,109) stayed with Odinga and the Azimio coalition. Bungoma (population ~1.7 million, registered voters 508,856) followed Mudavadi and Wetang'ula into the Kenya Kwanza camp. The Luhya vote, which pundits had been trying to unite since the days of Michael Kijana Wamalwa, was more fractured than ever.

The Presidential Results

Kakamega County:

• Raila Odinga (Azimio): 225,447 votes (58.03%)
• William Ruto (UDA): 160,207 votes (41.24%)
• Turnout: 62.48%

Bungoma County:

• William Ruto (UDA): 170,523 votes (52.38%)
• Raila Odinga (Azimio): 152,117 votes (46.73%)
• Turnout: 64.92%

The contrast is stark. Kakamega gave Odinga a margin of about 65,000 votes. Bungoma gave Ruto a margin of about 18,400. Together, the two counties netted Odinga roughly 46,600 votes — a fraction of what a united Western Kenya could have delivered. For context, in 2017, the combined Odinga margin from these two counties was over 150,000.

The Mudavadi-Wetang'ula Effect

On January 23, 2022, Musalia Mudavadi (ANC leader, from Vihiga) walked onto a Kenya Kwanza stage and declared his support for William Ruto. Moses Wetang'ula (Ford-Kenya leader, from Bungoma) joined him. The event was designed as a political earthquake — and in Western Kenya, it was.

The impact was immediate and geographic. Bungoma, Wetang'ula's home turf, swung sharply. In 2017, Bungoma had given Odinga about 56% of the vote. In 2022, Ruto won it with 52%. That's an 8-point swing — enormous in a county of half a million voters.

Kakamega, further from both Mudavadi's and Wetang'ula's home bases, was less affected. Kakamega's Luhya politics is influenced by local ODM-aligned leaders like former Governor Wycliffe Oparanya. Despite Mudavadi's stature, the ODM ground machine in Kakamega held firm.

The interesting middle ground was Vihiga, Mudavadi's own county. There, Ruto won 53.5% — a massive swing from the 30% Jubilee got in 2017. Mudavadi's personal influence delivered his home county. But beyond Vihiga and Bungoma, the Kenya Kwanza penetration into Western Kenya was limited.

The Governor Races Tell a Different Story

While the presidential race split along Mudavadi/Odinga lines, the governor races in both counties were far messier:

In Kakamega, Fernandes Barasa (ODM) won the governorship with 230,299 votes (56.91%), defeating Cleophas Malala (ANC) who got 165,240 (40.83%). This was a clean ODM sweep — matching the presidential pattern.

In Bungoma, Ken Lusaka (Kenya Kwanza/Ford-Kenya) won with 177,483 votes (51.89%) over a fragmented field. The Kenya Kwanza brand, anchored by Wetang'ula's Ford-Kenya, carried the governorship too. But the margins were razor-thin.

The governor races confirmed that Western Kenya's split wasn't just about Ruto vs. Odinga at the presidential level — it was a genuine regional realignment, with the ANC/Ford-Kenya axis pulling Bungoma and parts of the region into a new coalition.

Constituency-Level Patterns

Within each county, the split was not uniform:

In Kakamega, Odinga won all 12 constituencies, but his margins ranged from 52% in Likuyani (near the Bungoma border, influenced by Luhya sub-ethnic dynamics) to 71% in Butere (deep ODM territory). The southern Kakamega constituencies bordering Vihiga showed the strongest Kenya Kwanza presence.

In Bungoma, Ruto won 6 of 9 constituencies. Odinga held Bumula (57.2%), Tongaren (52.1%), and Mt. Elgon (56.8%). Ruto's strongest results came from Kanduyi (58.1% — Wetang'ula's base), Webuye West (56.3%), and Sirisia (54.7%). The pattern maps almost perfectly onto the Ford-Kenya vs. ODM grassroots networks.

Historical Context: The Luhya Unity Myth

Since 2002, Western Kenya has not voted as a unified bloc. Mudavadi ran for president in 2013 and got only 3.93% nationally, unable to consolidate even his own region. In 2017, Mudavadi backed Odinga but the relationship was transactional — and in 2022, it broke.

The fundamental problem for "Luhya unity" is that the Luhya are not a single political community. The 18 sub-tribes — Bukusu (dominant in Bungoma), Maragoli (Vihiga), Isukha and Idakho (Kakamega) — have distinct identities and political allegiances. What works in Bungoma doesn't work in Kakamega, and vice versa.

This has made Western Kenya the perennial "kingmaker that never makes kings." With roughly 3.2 million registered voters across Bungoma, Kakamega, Vihiga, Busia, and Trans Nzoia, the region has more voters than the entire Coast. But it consistently splits its vote, diminishing its national influence.

Looking Ahead to 2027

The Western Kenya tug-of-war will intensify for 2027. Mudavadi is now Cabinet Secretary for Foreign Affairs — a prestigious post but one that distances him from grassroots politics. Wetang'ula is Speaker of the National Assembly. Both men hold high offices but neither is building a campaign machine.

The question for 2027 is whether the ANC-Ford Kenya alignment with Ruto holds, or whether a new opposition figure can reunite the region. With Raila Odinga's passing in October 2025, the opposition needs Western Kenya more than ever — but who can deliver it?

For more on how Bungoma voted in detail, see our Bungoma County Spotlight.

Western Kenya's 3.2 million voters split in 2022. Will they unite in 2027? Only real-time data from every polling station will tell you. Book your Votrack demo today.