2022 County Spotlight: Bungoma — Where Ruto Outperformed Expectations

Bungoma was expected to go Azimio. Instead, Ruto won it with 63.16% — a stunning Western Kenya upset that rewrote the region's political map.

If there was one county that nobody expected Ruto to win comfortably in Western Kenya, it was Bungoma. This is the home of the Luhya community's Bukusu sub-tribe — the largest Luhya sub-group. For years, Bungoma had been a battleground, but it leaned toward the opposition. In 2017, the county was close, but Kenyatta won it narrowly with help from Ruto's influence as his running mate.

In 2022, with Ruto running on his own, conventional wisdom said Bungoma would swing to the late Raila Odinga's Azimio coalition. After all, Musalia Mudavadi, one of the most prominent Luhya politicians and a former Vice President, had initially been expected to back Azimio. The thinking was that Luhya political leaders would rally behind Odinga as they had before.

But Mudavadi did something that changed everything. He joined Ruto's Kenya Kwanza coalition in a dramatic announcement at the Bomas of Kenya. And he brought Bungoma with him.

The Numbers: A Decisive Win

The results from IEBC were emphatic. Ruto won 255,906 votes (63.16%) against Odinga's 145,280 votes (35.86%). That is a margin of 110,626 votes — not even close. George Wajackoyah picked up 2,384 votes and David Waihiga Mwaure got 1,581.

To understand how significant this is, consider the broader Western Kenya picture. Neighbouring Kakamega, the other major Luhya county, went heavily for Odinga with 357,857 votes (71.05%) against Ruto's 141,166 (28.03%). Vihiga gave Odinga 114,714 (62.24%). Busia gave Odinga 226,042 (81.68%).

Bungoma was the only major Luhya county that went for Ruto. It was the exception that proved the rule — and it tipped the balance in Ruto's favour in a region that was supposed to be Azimio heartland.

Why Bungoma Flipped

Three factors explain Bungoma's swing to Ruto.

First, Musalia Mudavadi. As the ANC party leader and a Bukusu from Vihiga-adjacent stock, Mudavadi commands enormous respect in Bungoma. When he joined Kenya Kwanza, he gave Bungoma voters permission to vote for Ruto without feeling they were betraying the Luhya community. His presence in Ruto's coalition made the Kenya Kwanza ticket feel like a Western Kenya ticket.

Second, Moses Wetang'ula. The FORD-Kenya leader and senator from Bungoma was another heavyweight who joined Kenya Kwanza. Wetang'ula, who later became Speaker of the National Assembly, delivered his Bungoma base to Ruto. Having both Mudavadi and Wetang'ula in the same coalition was a one-two punch that Azimio could not counter.

Third, the hustler narrative. Bungoma is one of Kenya's poorest counties by per-capita income despite having a large, educated population. Ruto's "hustler vs dynasty" message resonated powerfully among young Bukusu voters who felt left behind by the established political order.

Western Kenya Comparison: Bungoma vs Its Neighbours

The contrast between Bungoma and its Western Kenya neighbours is one of the most dramatic regional splits in the entire 2022 election. Look at the numbers side by side:

Bungoma gave Ruto 63.16%. Just across the county line, Kakamega gave him only 28.03%. Busia gave him 17.63%. Vihiga gave him 36.69%. These are neighbouring counties with overlapping ethnic communities, shared trade routes, and intermarried families. Yet they voted in completely opposite directions.

What explains this? The sub-ethnic factor is crucial. Bungoma is predominantly Bukusu, while Kakamega has a mix of Isukha, Idakho, Kabras, and Maragoli communities. The Bukusu have their own political traditions and tend to follow their leaders more cohesively. When Mudavadi and Wetang'ula — both associated with Bukusu political identity — went to Kenya Kwanza, the Bukusu followed.

In Kakamega, Busia, and Vihiga, the dominant Luhya sub-groups had different leaders pointing in different directions, and the default was to stick with the late Raila, who had been the opposition leader for two decades.

Turnout and Rejected Ballots

Bungoma's turnout of 63.51% was roughly in line with the national average of 64.8%. The county had 646,612 registered voters, making it one of the larger electorates in Western Kenya. However, 5,516 ballots were rejected — the fourth highest in the country after Nairobi (12,869), Kakamega (5,562), and Kiambu (5,635).

That rejection rate of about 1.36% is higher than the national average of 0.80%. In a county where political passions run high and some voters were torn between community loyalty and their preferred candidate, the high rejection rate may reflect deliberate spoiling by conflicted voters.

What Bungoma Means for 2027

Bungoma's 2022 results raised a question that will dominate Western Kenya politics going into 2027: has the Bukusu community permanently realigned to Ruto, or was 2022 a one-time event driven by Mudavadi and Wetang'ula?

If Mudavadi and Wetang'ula remain in Ruto's corner in 2027, Bungoma is likely to vote the same way. Mudavadi is now the Prime Cabinet Secretary and Wetang'ula is Speaker of the National Assembly — both powerful positions that give them patronage networks to maintain their Bungoma influence.

But if there is a fallout between Ruto and the Western Kenya leaders — or if a strong Luhya presidential candidate emerges — Bungoma could swing again. The county's political history shows that Bukusu voters are not permanently wedded to any one coalition. They follow their leaders, and their leaders follow power.

The late Raila Odinga's passing in October 2025 has also reshuffled the opposition landscape. Without Odinga as the rallying figure for opposition unity, the next election could see a more fragmented field — which could benefit whoever commands Bungoma's 646,000 voters as a bloc. For more on how regional blocs shaped 2022, read our Kiambu spotlight and the complete national analysis.

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