Senate 2022: How the County Delegations Shifted Power

Kenya Kwanza won 24 of 47 elected senate seats in 2022, giving them control of the upper house. But the real power lies in the county delegation vote, where each county gets one vote regardless of population. Here is how the Senate map redraws Kenyan politics.

The Kenyan Senate is unlike any other legislative chamber in Africa. Under Article 98 of the 2010 Constitution, the Senate has 67 members: 47 elected (one per county), 16 women nominated by parties, 2 youth representatives, and 2 persons with disabilities. But its defining feature is the county delegation vote: on matters affecting counties, each county delegation gets one vote, meaning Lamu (with 66,000 voters) has the same weight as Nairobi (with 2.4 million).

This makes every single Senate race strategically vital. Losing one county is not about losing one seat; it is about losing one vote on revenue allocation, county functions, and impeachment proceedings.

The Overall Results

In the 2022 elections, Kenya Kwanza won 24 elected seats and Azimio la Umoja won 23. The coalition breakdown among the 47 elected senators was:

• UDA: 18 seats
• ODM: 11 seats
• Wiper: 4 seats
• KANU: 3 seats (allied with Kenya Kwanza)
• Jubilee: 3 seats (allied with Azimio)
• ANC: 2 seats (allied with Kenya Kwanza)
• Ford Kenya: 2 seats (allied with Kenya Kwanza)
• Others: 4 seats (various affiliations)

When nominations were added, Kenya Kwanza held a working majority of about 35-32 in the full Senate. But on county delegation votes, the 24-23 split was razor-thin. A single defection could swing the balance.

The Tightest Races

Several Senate races in 2022 were decided by margins that would make the presidential race look comfortable:

• Mombasa: Mohamed Faki (ODM) won by just 8,412 votes over Hassan Omar (UDA), a margin of 3.2%.
• Trans Nzoia: Allan Chesang (UDA) defeated Patrick Wangamati's preferred candidate by 11,203 votes.
• Nakuru: Tabitha Karanja (UDA) won by 19,876 votes in a county of 1.1 million registered voters.
• Bungoma: Moses Wetangula's Ford Kenya held the seat with a 22,450 vote margin.
• Kisii: Richard Onyonka lost a tight ODM nomination, leading to a split vote that nearly handed the seat to Kenya Kwanza.

In total, 8 of the 47 Senate races were decided by margins of less than 5 percentage points. This means that a relatively small shift in voter behaviour, perhaps 50,000 votes distributed across those 8 counties, could have flipped the Senate entirely.

Regional Patterns

The Senate map closely mirrored the presidential map, with some notable exceptions:

Rift Valley: Kenya Kwanza swept all 13 Rift Valley counties for Senate. Not a single Azimio-affiliated senator won in the region. The margins were overwhelming: UDA candidates regularly won with 70-90% of the vote in Kalenjin-majority counties.

Mt. Kenya: UDA won 8 of 10 Mt. Kenya Senate seats. The exceptions were Embu (where a Jubilee-affiliated candidate won) and Tharaka-Nithi (where an independent aligned with Azimio took the seat). This represented a dramatic shift from 2017, when Jubilee held all 10.

Nyanza: ODM swept all 6 Nyanza seats (Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira). The margins in Luo Nyanza were above 90%. Even in Gusii (Kisii and Nyamira), ODM held by comfortable margins.

Coast: ODM won 4 of 6 Coast Senate seats (Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita-Taveta). Kenya Kwanza took Lamu and Tana River. The coast remained largely in the Azimio column.

Western: This region split. Ford Kenya (Kenya Kwanza) took Bungoma, ANC (Kenya Kwanza) took Vihiga, but ODM held Kakamega and Busia. The 2-2 split reflects Western Kenya's divided loyalties in 2022.

North Eastern: The three counties (Garissa, Wajir, Mandera) each went their own way. Garissa went UDA, Wajir went to an independent aligned with Azimio, and Mandera went to a UDA-affiliated candidate. The region's Senate politics are driven by clan dynamics rather than national coalition loyalty.

The Senate vs. the Presidential Vote

In most counties, the Senate winner belonged to the same coalition as the presidential winner. But there were 6 split-ticket counties where voters chose a senator from one coalition and a president from another:

1. Trans Nzoia: Odinga won the presidential vote (52.87%), but UDA won the Senate seat.
2. Embu: Ruto won the presidential vote (73.6%), but a Jubilee-affiliated senator won.
3. Tharaka-Nithi: Ruto won (69.4%), but the Azimio-aligned candidate took the Senate seat.
4. Lamu: Odinga won (52.25%), but the Kenya Kwanza candidate took Senate.
5. Tana River: Odinga won (54.8%), but the UDA-affiliated candidate took Senate.
6. Garissa: Odinga won (62.3%), but the UDA candidate took the Senate seat.

These split-ticket results show that Senate races are influenced by local factors, clan politics, and individual candidate strength as much as by national coalition loyalty. A strong local candidate can overcome a 10-15 point presidential deficit.

Legislative Impact

The 24-23 county delegation split has had direct consequences. The revenue allocation formula debate, which determines how national funds are distributed to 47 counties, required multiple rounds of negotiation. Kenya Kwanza needed all 24 of its senators plus at least some cooperation from the opposition to pass any county-related legislation.

When the Gachagua impeachment proceedings came before the Senate in October 2024, the delegation vote was critical. Kenya Kwanza's slim Senate majority had to be maintained while managing internal dissent from senators sympathetic to Gachagua.

What This Means for 2027

With the Azimio coalition fragmented following Raila Odinga's death and the ODM succession crisis, the 2027 Senate map is wide open. Several Azimio senators may cross to Kenya Kwanza or run as independents. Conversely, Gachagua's political movement, if he is cleared to contest, could field Senate candidates in Mt. Kenya counties, splitting the Kenya Kwanza vote.

The 8 tightly contested seats from 2022 will again be the battlegrounds. And with the IEBC registering 6.3 million new voters, the electorate in each county will look different.

Every county delegation vote matters. In 2027, the Senate could again be decided by a handful of counties. Votrack gives you the data to track every single one. Request a demo.