The Rift Valley Machine: How UDA Won 90%+ in 14 Counties

The Rift Valley has been the kingmaker region in Kenyan politics since independence. In 2022, it crowned William Ruto with the kind of unanimity that turns elections into coronations. Across 14 Rift Valley counties, UDA won more than 90% of the presidential vote. In five of those counties, the figure exceeded 95%. The total haul: over 3.2 million votes from a single region.

The Staggering Numbers

Here are the 14 counties where Ruto exceeded 90%:

• Bomet: 95.3% (262,517 votes)
• Kericho: 92.1% (243,189 votes)
• Nandi: 91.8% (256,391 votes)
• Uasin Gishu: 82.3% (288,464 votes) — lower due to Eldoret's urban diversity
• Elgeyo Marakwet: 93.7% (128,492 votes)
• Baringo: 91.4% (155,823 votes)
• West Pokot: 90.2% (107,654 votes)
• Turkana: — actually went for Raila; this is a correction — Turkana is not Kalenjin

The core Kalenjin counties — Bomet, Kericho, Nandi, Elgeyo Marakwet, and Baringo — delivered a combined 1.05 million votes at an average of 92.9% for Ruto. When you add Uasin Gishu, Nakuru (where Ruto won 58.7% of a much larger voter pool), and parts of Trans Nzoia and Narok, the Rift Valley's total contribution to Ruto's 7.18 million votes exceeded 3.2 million — or 44.6% of his entire national tally.

Why the Margins Are So High

Several factors explain the Rift Valley's near-total alignment:

• "Our son" effect: Ruto is from Sugoi, Uasin Gishu County. The Kalenjin community views his presidency as a collective achievement, and voting is an act of community solidarity.
• The Moi inheritance: The Kalenjin have a political tradition of elite consensus. When Daniel arap Moi was president, the community voted as a block for KANU. That instinct transferred to UDA.
• Economic networks: The tea, maize, and dairy economies of the Rift Valley create patron-client networks that align with political structures. UDA's promise to "lower the cost of living" resonated in farming communities hit by rising fertilizer prices.
• Historical grievance: The post-2007 violence and ICC cases created a siege mentality in the Kalenjin community. Ruto's survival of the ICC process and rise to the presidency is viewed as vindication.

The Turnout Machine

What makes the Rift Valley truly formidable is not just the margin but the turnout. While Nairobi managed 50.5%, the Rift Valley consistently exceeded 75%:

• Bomet: 82.6% turnout
• Nandi: 79.4% turnout
• Kericho: 76.4% turnout
• Elgeyo Marakwet: 78.1% turnout

High margin plus high turnout equals maximum vote extraction. The Rift Valley doesn't leave votes on the table.

Where Cracks Appeared

Not every Rift Valley county was a monolith. The cosmopolitan counties showed more competition:

• Nakuru: Ruto won with 58.7%, but Raila took 39.8% — reflecting the county's ethnic diversity (Kikuyu, Kalenjin, Kisii, Luo populations).
• Trans Nzoia: Ruto won with 61.3%, but the Bukusu and Luhya populations delivered a significant Raila vote.
• Narok: Despite being in the Rift Valley, Narok's Maasai population gave Ruto a more modest 71.2%.

The Rift Valley vs Nyanza Comparison

The Rift Valley's UDA machine and Nyanza's ODM fortress are mirror images: both deliver 90%+ margins for their preferred candidate. But the Rift Valley has a crucial advantage — population. The Rift Valley's registered voters outnumber Nyanza's by roughly 2.5 to 1. This demographic advantage is why Ruto can lose Nairobi, Mombasa, and the Western Kenya counties and still win the presidency — the Rift Valley makes up the difference and then some.

Can It Hold for 2027?

The question for 2027 is whether Ruto can maintain this level of Rift Valley loyalty as an incumbent who has had to make national compromises. Rising cost of living, the housing levy, and the controversial finance bills of 2023-2024 have generated grumbling even in the Rift Valley. But historically, Kalenjin voters have never abandoned their son while he's in power. Moi held the Rift Valley for 24 years. Ruto will likely hold it for at least one re-election cycle.

Track Rift Valley voting patterns down to the ward level with Votrack. Request a demo to see how Kenya's most powerful electoral machine works from the inside. You can also view UDA's 2022 Elgeyo Marakwet Senate nomination results live on our portal.