Kenya Election Insights

Data-driven analysis of Kenya's elections from 2007 to 2022

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Showing 73-84 of 85 posts

BARINGO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
BARINGO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for BARINGO: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

Jan 08, 2025 2 min 3,457
Elgeyo Marakwet 2022: A County Study in Political Loyalty
Elgeyo Marakwet 2022: A County Study in Political Loyalty

With 93.7% for Ruto in the presidential race and UDA sweeping every seat, Elgeyo Marakwet is a case study in total polit...

Apr 03, 2023 3 min 8,338
Wajir, Garissa, and Mandera: The North Eastern Bloc in 2022
Wajir, Garissa, and Mandera: The North Eastern Bloc in 2022

Kenya's three North Eastern counties — Wajir, Garissa, and Mandera — have distinctive electoral dynamics: clan-based pol...

Feb 28, 2023 5 min 10,438
Nandi and Uasin Gishu: Inside UDA's Two Fortress Counties
Nandi and Uasin Gishu: Inside UDA's Two Fortress Counties

Nandi and Uasin Gishu are the twin engines of UDA's electoral machine. In 2022, they delivered a combined net margin of...

Dec 14, 2022 5 min 545
Kiambu's Quiet Rebellion: How Mt. Kenya's Biggest County Split Its Vote
Kiambu's Quiet Rebellion: How Mt. Kenya's Biggest County Split Its Vote

Kiambu, the largest county in Mt. Kenya with 1.3 million registered voters, was the site of the most dramatic split betw...

Nov 22, 2022 5 min 9,864
Nairobi 2022: How the Capital's 2.2 Million Voters Split Their Tickets
Nairobi 2022: How the Capital's 2.2 Million Voters Split Their Tickets

Kenya's capital is the only county where voters routinely split their tickets across parties. In 2022, Nairobi's 2.2 mil...

Oct 30, 2022 3 min 6,395
Bungoma and Kakamega: The Western Kenya Tug-of-War Between ANC and ODM
Bungoma and Kakamega: The Western Kenya Tug-of-War Between ANC and ODM

Bungoma and Kakamega — Western Kenya's two largest counties — split dramatically in 2022. Kakamega went 58% for Odinga w...

Oct 27, 2022 5 min 4,781
Kisumu's 98% Loyalty: Inside Kenya's Most Predictable Stronghold
Kisumu's 98% Loyalty: Inside Kenya's Most Predictable Stronghold

Kisumu gave Raila Odinga 97.5% of the presidential vote in 2022 — almost identical to 2017 and 2013. What drives this ex...

Oct 18, 2022 3 min 2,259
Nakuru 2022: The Swing County That Swung Hard for Kenya Kwanza
Nakuru 2022: The Swing County That Swung Hard for Kenya Kwanza

Nakuru County, Kenya's third-largest electorate with over 1.1 million registered voters, was considered the ultimate swi...

Oct 18, 2022 5 min 8,258
How UDA Swept the Rift Valley: A Ward-Level Analysis
How UDA Swept the Rift Valley: A Ward-Level Analysis

William Ruto's UDA party won every single gubernatorial race in the Rift Valley, swept parliamentary seats, and delivere...

Sep 28, 2022 4 min 4,707
Martha Karua Effect: Did She Move Votes in Central Kenya?
Martha Karua Effect: Did She Move Votes in Central Kenya?

When Raila Odinga picked Martha Karua as his running mate, it was hailed as a masterstroke. A respected Kikuyu woman fro...

Sep 20, 2022 4 min 1,551
Mombasa 2022: How Abdulswamad Nassir Reclaimed the Coast for ODM
Mombasa 2022: How Abdulswamad Nassir Reclaimed the Coast for ODM

After years of Joho's tenure and growing disillusionment, Mombasa's 2022 governor race saw Abdulswamad Nassir reclaim th...

Sep 14, 2022 4 min 11,426