2022 County Spotlight: Murang’a — 81.68% for Ruto in Kenyatta’s Backyard

Murang’a is Mt. Kenya’s political heartland. In 2022, it massively backed Ruto despite Kenyatta’s endorsement of Odinga.

If Kiambu was the Kenyatta family’s home, Murang’a was the wider Mt. Kenya region’s political engine. This county sits at the foot of Mount Kenya, and its voters have been some of the most disciplined and predictable in Kenyan elections. In 2017, 97.89% of Murang’a’s valid votes went to Uhuru Kenyatta. That is not a typo. Out of 509,006 valid votes, 498,248 went to Kenyatta, and only 9,122 went to Odinga.

Five years later, something extraordinary happened. The same county gave William Ruto 343,349 votes (81.68%) and the late Raila Odinga just 73,526 votes (17.49%). Ruto did not match Kenyatta’s near-total dominance, but 81.68% is still a landslide by any measure.

The 2017 vs 2022 Comparison

The chart tells the story plainly. In 2017, Kenyatta got 498,248 votes and Odinga got 9,122 — a margin of 489,126 votes. In 2022, Ruto got 343,349 and Odinga got 73,526 — a margin of 269,823 votes.

So the margin shrank by about 220,000 votes. But let us be clear: Ruto still won Murang’a by nearly 270,000 votes. Kenyatta’s endorsement of Odinga managed to get Odinga from 9,122 votes to 73,526 votes in Murang’a. That is an eightfold increase. But it was nowhere near enough to flip the county.

As one Murang’a resident told Nation Africa, “We love Uhuru, but we cannot vote for Raila. That is asking too much.”

Turnout: Still Strong, But Declining

Murang’a’s turnout tells an interesting parallel story:

In 2013, Murang’a had 453,725 registered voters and an estimated turnout of 93% — one of the highest in the country. The county was fired up for Kenyatta. By 2017, with 587,222 registered voters, the county still delivered about 86.7% turnout (509,006 valid votes plus 1,182 rejected).

In 2022, Murang’a had 621,027 registered voters, but only 420,343 valid votes were cast, plus 2,554 rejected ballots — a turnout of 68.10%. That is a 25-point drop from the 2013 high.

Like Kiambu, Murang’a’s declining turnout reflects the absence of a local son on the ballot. Kenyatta’s departure left a void. Ruto and Gachagua filled some of it, but not all.

Why Murang’a Defied Kenyatta

This is one of the most important questions in Kenyan politics: how did an entire region vote against the wishes of its most powerful son?

The answer has several layers. First, there was Rigathi Gachagua. As Ruto’s running mate and a fellow Mt. Kenya man (from Nyeri), Gachagua gave Murang’a voters permission to vote for Ruto without feeling like they were betraying their community. Gachagua campaigned relentlessly in Mt. Kenya, framing the election as a choice between “our interests” under Ruto and “their interests” under Odinga.

Second, there was deep-seated mistrust of Odinga. For decades, the late Raila Odinga had been painted as Mt. Kenya’s political enemy. The 2007 post-election violence, in which many Mt. Kenya residents living in the Rift Valley were displaced, cemented this suspicion. One endorsement from Kenyatta was never going to undo 20 years of political messaging.

Third, Kenyatta himself had lost credibility in his own backyard. His second term was marked by the BBI (Building Bridges Initiative), which many Mt. Kenya voters saw as a project to extend Odinga’s political life rather than to help their communities. The feeling in Murang’a was that Kenyatta had abandoned his base.

The Numbers in Context

Let’s look at Murang’a alongside other Mt. Kenya counties in 2022:

Murang’a’s 81.68% for Ruto was actually middling by Mt. Kenya standards. Nyeri gave Ruto 83.36% (272,507 of 326,880), Kirinyaga gave him 84.70% (220,984 of 260,900), and Tharaka-Nithi gave him 89.79% (145,081 of 161,578). Even Embu gave Ruto 85.04%.

Kiambu was the one Mt. Kenya county where Ruto’s margin was lowest — 73.49%. Kiambu’s more cosmopolitan and urban character meant that Odinga picked up more crossover votes there.

What Murang’a Means for 2027

Murang’a delivered 343,349 votes for Ruto in 2022. If turnout returns to the 85%+ levels seen in 2013 and 2017, the county could deliver over 430,000 votes for its preferred candidate in 2027. That is an additional 90,000+ votes.

But the critical question is: whose votes will those be? With Gachagua impeached in October 2024 and Kenyatta sidelined, Murang’a voters may feel orphaned. The county has been loyal to whoever its leaders tell it to support. But right now, it has no clear leader.

For Ruto, holding Murang’a at 80%+ without Gachagua will be his biggest Mt. Kenya challenge. For any opposition candidate, cracking Murang’a’s 80% wall would require a Mt. Kenya running mate even more credible than Gachagua was. That is a tall order. Read our Kiambu spotlight for the broader Mt. Kenya picture, and our Siaya spotlight for a look at the other end of the political spectrum.

Monitor Mt. Kenya vote tallying in real time. Votrack’s parallel tallying platform covers every polling station in Murang’a, Kiambu, Nyeri, and all 47 counties. Request a demo and see the data as it comes in.