Kenya Election Insights

Data-driven analysis of Kenya's elections from 2007 to 2022

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Showing 73-84 of 174 posts

The Agent Communication Hierarchy: How Election Results Flow from Station to Headquarters
The Agent Communication Hierarchy: How Election Results Flow from Station to Headquarters

Kenya's election agent communication hierarchy has four tiers: Polling Station Agent, Constituency Chief Agent, County C...

Mar 22, 2025 6 min 807
KERICHO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
KERICHO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for KERICHO: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

Mar 21, 2025 2 min 3,934
KAKAMEGA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
KAKAMEGA 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for KAKAMEGA: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams ca...

Mar 15, 2025 2 min 7,513
Presidential Strongholds: Where 90%+ of Voters Chose One Candidate
Presidential Strongholds: Where 90%+ of Voters Chose One Candidate

Kenyan presidential elections are decided in a handful of swing counties. But the story starts in the strongholds, where...

Mar 14, 2025 5 min 4,469
The Orange Wave: How ODM Won 99 Parliamentary Seats in 2007
The Orange Wave: How ODM Won 99 Parliamentary Seats in 2007

In the 2007 parliamentary elections, Raila Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement won 99 out of 210 seats — 47% of the Nati...

Mar 12, 2025 7 min 3,799
KAJIADO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
KAJIADO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for KAJIADO: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

Mar 09, 2025 2 min 7,416
County and National Tallying: The Final Steps to Declaring Kenya's Election Results
County and National Tallying: The Final Steps to Declaring Kenya's Election Results

After constituency tallying, results flow upward to county and national levels. At the county level, Governor, Senator,...

Mar 08, 2025 6 min 4,461
Youth Candidates vs Youth Winners: The 9.2% Success Rate
Youth Candidates vs Youth Winners: The 9.2% Success Rate

In 2017, 3,428 youth candidates ran for elective office in Kenya. Only 314 won — a 9.2% success rate. But the gender bre...

Mar 07, 2025 4 min 5,112
ISIOLO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
ISIOLO 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for ISIOLO: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams can...

Mar 03, 2025 2 min 6,046
HOMA BAY 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter
HOMA BAY 2027 Forecast: Turnout, Stronghold Pressure, and the Votes That Will Matter

A practical county forecast for HOMA BAY: turnout trend from 2013-2022, the 2022 winning bloc, and how campaign teams ca...

Feb 25, 2025 2 min 3,675
Constituency Tallying in Kenya: How Results Move from Stations to Declaration
Constituency Tallying in Kenya: How Results Move from Stations to Declaration

At the constituency tallying center, the Returning Officer receives forms from every polling station, verifies seals and...

Feb 22, 2025 6 min 319
Governors by the Numbers: Jubilee's 25-County Sweep in 2017
Governors by the Numbers: Jubilee's 25-County Sweep in 2017

In the 2017 general election, Jubilee Party dominated the governor's race with 25 out of 47 seats. ODM took 13, while tw...

Feb 22, 2025 4 min 2,254