The 2007 Election That Changed Kenya Forever: A Data Retrospective

9.87 million Kenyans voted on December 27, 2007. What followed — disputed results, ethnic violence, and a political crisis that killed approximately 1,500 people and displaced over 600,000 — reshaped the nation's democracy forever.

The 2007 general election was Kenya's tenth since independence in 1963. It pitted the incumbent President Mwai Kibaki of the Party of National Unity (PNU) against Raila Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and Kalonzo Musyoka of ODM-Kenya. Nine candidates appeared on the presidential ballot. Only three mattered.

Under Kenya's old electoral system, there were no counties, no governors, no senators, and no women representatives. The country was divided into 8 provinces and 210 constituencies. The presidential race and the parliamentary race were the two main contests. A simple plurality won the presidency — no 50%+1 threshold existed yet.

The Presidential Results

The Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) declared the following results:

• Mwai Kibaki (PNU): 4,584,721 votes (46.4%)
• Raila Odinga (ODM): 4,352,993 votes (44.1%)
• Kalonzo Musyoka (ODM-K): 879,903 votes (8.9%)
• Others (6 candidates): approximately 55,000 votes combined (0.6%)

The official margin between Kibaki and Raila was 231,728 votes. But it was the manner in which those results were announced — and the irregularities that surrounded the count — that plunged Kenya into its worst crisis since independence.

Out of 14.3 million registered voters, approximately 9.87 million cast their ballots, giving a turnout of 69.1%. This was high by global standards but reflected the deep polarisation that had built up over the campaign period.

Parliamentary Results: ODM's Dominance

While the presidential race was agonisingly close, the parliamentary elections told a clearer story. ODM swept the National Assembly, winning 99 out of 210 seats. Kibaki's PNU managed only 43 seats. The full breakdown:

• ODM: 99 seats (47.1%)
• PNU: 43 seats (20.5%)
• ODM-K: 16 seats (7.6%)
• KANU: 14 seats (6.7%)
• Others/Independents: 38 seats (18.1%)

This created an extraordinary contradiction. The party that lost the presidential race controlled the legislature. ODM's 99 seats gave Raila's allies effective control of the National Assembly, which complicated Kibaki's ability to govern even after his disputed swearing-in.

Turnout by Province

Kenya's eight provinces showed markedly different turnout levels. The regions most closely associated with the leading candidates turned out at higher rates:

• Central Province (Kibaki's home region): approximately 79% turnout
• Nyanza Province (Raila's home region): approximately 74% turnout
• Rift Valley Province: approximately 73% turnout
• Western Province: approximately 70% turnout
• Eastern Province (Kalonzo's home region): approximately 68% turnout
• Nairobi Province: approximately 60% turnout
• Coast Province: approximately 58% turnout
• North Eastern Province: approximately 42% turnout

The regional patterns were stark. Central Province delivered massive margins for Kibaki, with some constituencies recording over 98% support for the incumbent. Similarly, Nyanza gave Raila over 95% of its vote. Kenya was voting along clear ethnic and regional lines.

The Disputed Count

As votes were tallied at the Kenyatta International Conference Centre (KICC), Raila's ODM held a consistent lead through the early and middle stages of counting. However, results from Central Province arrived very late. When they did, they swung the total dramatically in Kibaki's favour.

ECK chairman Samuel Kivuitu declared Kibaki the winner under extraordinary circumstances. Foreign observers, including those from the European Union Election Observation Mission, expressed serious concerns about the tallying process. Kivuitu himself later admitted he did not know who had actually won the election.

Kibaki was hastily sworn in at State House as darkness fell on December 30, 2007. Within hours, violence erupted across the country.

The Aftermath

The post-election violence that followed from December 2007 through February 2008 was devastating:

• Approximately 1,500 people killed
• Over 600,000 people displaced from their homes
• Widespread destruction of property, particularly in the Rift Valley, Nyanza, and Nairobi's informal settlements
• Ethnic tensions that had simmered for decades boiled over into targeted violence

The crisis was resolved through the National Accord and Reconciliation Act of February 2008, mediated by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan. The accord created the position of Prime Minister for Raila Odinga and established a grand coalition government.

Two commissions were formed to investigate: the Waki Commission (Commission of Inquiry into Post-Election Violence) and the Krigler Commission (Independent Review Commission). The Krigler Commission found that the ECK was unable to verify the results of the presidential election. The Waki Commission's findings eventually led to International Criminal Court (ICC) cases against senior Kenyan politicians, including Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto.

What the Data Tells Us

Looking back at 2007 through a data lens, several things stand out:

1. The margin was small enough to dispute. A 231,728-vote gap (2.3% of total votes) in a context of alleged tallying irregularities made the result inherently contestable.
2. Parliamentary results contradicted the presidential outcome. ODM winning 99 seats to PNU's 43 suggested ODM had broader national support than the presidential tally reflected.
3. Regional polarisation was extreme. Provinces voted as blocs, with margins exceeding 90% in some areas. This pattern has persisted in every election since.
4. The old electoral system had no safeguards. A simple plurality with no threshold meant a disputed result had no constitutional mechanism for resolution beyond the courts.

The 2007 election directly led to Kenya's 2010 Constitution, which introduced the 50%+1 threshold, devolved government with 47 counties, and the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to replace the discredited ECK. For a full comparison of how Kenya's electoral system evolved, read our analysis of four elections and four stories from 2007 to 2022.

What This Pattern Means for 2027

Historical election numbers are most useful when they are turned into field actions. For The 2007 Election That Changed Kenya Forever: A Data Retrospective, your campaign can use this history to decide where to invest agents, transport, and voter mobilisation before election day.

• Set target turnout by ward: Use past turnout as your baseline, then assign a realistic uplift target for each ward and polling centre.
• Track strongholds hour by hour: If turnout in your core areas is below plan by midday, deploy rapid mobilisation teams early, not late.
• Protect evidence quality: Keep a clean chain of results forms, incident notes, and station-level logs to support legal review if needed.

For primary reference material, review the IEBC official resources, Kenya Law election jurisprudence, and the IEBC election regulations.

CTA: Votrack gives your team real-time visibility from polling station to county tally, with Web, USSD, and Telegram reporting in one workflow. Book a Votrack demo.