Kenya Election Insights

Data-driven analysis of Kenya's elections from 2007 to 2022

Filtering by: presidential ×

Showing 25-35 of 35 posts

Kisumu's 98% Loyalty: Inside Kenya's Most Predictable Stronghold
Kisumu's 98% Loyalty: Inside Kenya's Most Predictable Stronghold

Kisumu gave Raila Odinga 97.5% of the presidential vote in 2022 — almost identical to 2017 and 2013. What drives this ex...

Oct 18, 2022 3 min 2,259
Rejected Ballots in 2022: 246,000 Votes That Never Counted
Rejected Ballots in 2022: 246,000 Votes That Never Counted

In an election decided by 233,211 votes, the 246,232 rejected presidential ballots represent a democratic tragedy. Who w...

Oct 18, 2022 4 min 10,728
Rural vs Urban: How City Voters and Village Voters Split in 2022
Rural vs Urban: How City Voters and Village Voters Split in 2022

City voters and rural voters didn't just pick different candidates in 2022 — they showed up at dramatically different ra...

Oct 05, 2022 3 min 7,630
William Ruto's Hustler Narrative: How a Campaign Slogan Became a Movement
William Ruto's Hustler Narrative: How a Campaign Slogan Became a Movement

The 'hustler vs dynasty' framing was dismissed by pundits as populist nonsense. But Ruto's bottom-up economic model reso...

Oct 05, 2022 4 min 10,602
How UDA Swept the Rift Valley: A Ward-Level Analysis
How UDA Swept the Rift Valley: A Ward-Level Analysis

William Ruto's UDA party won every single gubernatorial race in the Rift Valley, swept parliamentary seats, and delivere...

Sep 28, 2022 4 min 4,707
Presidential Results by Constituency: A Granular Look at 2022
Presidential Results by Constituency: A Granular Look at 2022

Breaking down the 2022 presidential results across all 290 constituencies reveals patterns hidden in county-level data....

Sep 22, 2022 5 min 8,057
Martha Karua Effect: Did She Move Votes in Central Kenya?
Martha Karua Effect: Did She Move Votes in Central Kenya?

When Raila Odinga picked Martha Karua as his running mate, it was hailed as a masterstroke. A respected Kikuyu woman fro...

Sep 20, 2022 4 min 1,551
How Kenya Kwanza Built a Winning Coalition: Lessons in Alliance Arithmetic
How Kenya Kwanza Built a Winning Coalition: Lessons in Alliance Arithmetic

Kenya Kwanza brought together UDA, ANC, Ford-Kenya, and smaller parties into a coalition that covered every region and c...

Sep 18, 2022 4 min 11,034
How Raila Lost Mt. Kenya: The Azimio Coalition's Fatal Miscalculation
How Raila Lost Mt. Kenya: The Azimio Coalition's Fatal Miscalculation

The Azimio la Umoja coalition's entire strategy hinged on Mt. Kenya. With Uhuru's endorsement and Martha Karua as runnin...

Sep 12, 2022 4 min 8,488
The 2022 Supreme Court Petition: What the Judges Said and Why It Matters
The 2022 Supreme Court Petition: What the Judges Said and Why It Matters

Raila Odinga's petition challenging Ruto's victory was the third presidential election petition in Kenya's history. The...

Sep 06, 2022 4 min 9,467
The Night Kenya Held Its Breath: Inside the 72-Hour Wait for 2022 Presidential Results
The Night Kenya Held Its Breath: Inside the 72-Hour Wait for 2022 Presidential Results

From the moment polls closed on August 9th to Wafula Chebukati's dramatic announcement on August 15th, Kenya endured its...

Aug 15, 2022 4 min 484