Kenya Election Insights

Data-driven analysis of Kenya's elections from 2007 to 2022

Filtering by: 2027-preview ×

Showing 25-36 of 204 posts

Siaya Coalition Memo 35: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit
Siaya Coalition Memo 35: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit

A county-grounded brief for Siaya using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regist...

May 24, 2026 2 min 7,889
Predicting 2027 Turnout: What Historical Data Tells Us
Predicting 2027 Turnout: What Historical Data Tells Us

Kenya's turnout has fallen from 86% to 65% across three elections. With registration projected to reach 24-26 million by...

May 23, 2026 5 min 6,496
Samburu Coalition Memo 34: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit
Samburu Coalition Memo 34: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit

A county-grounded brief for Samburu using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regi...

May 23, 2026 2 min 3,479
Nyeri Coalition Memo 33: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit
Nyeri Coalition Memo 33: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit

A county-grounded brief for Nyeri using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regist...

May 22, 2026 2 min 668
Nyandarua Coalition Memo 32: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit
Nyandarua Coalition Memo 32: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit

A county-grounded brief for Nyandarua using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, re...

May 21, 2026 2 min 1,145
Nyamira Coalition Memo 31: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit
Nyamira Coalition Memo 31: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit

A county-grounded brief for Nyamira using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regi...

May 20, 2026 2 min 1,309
KAKAMEGA: How turnout discipline can flip swing zones (Fastest Registration Growth)
KAKAMEGA: How turnout discipline can flip swing zones (Fastest Registration Growth)

Data-backed campaign playbook for KAKAMEGA: turnout trajectory, registration depth, margin risk, and how to plan agents...

May 20, 2026 2 min 678
Narok Coalition Memo 30: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit
Narok Coalition Memo 30: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit

A county-grounded brief for Narok using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regist...

May 19, 2026 2 min 9,926
Murang'a Rejected Ballot Watch: Where Ballot Quality Could Decide 2027
Murang'a Rejected Ballot Watch: Where Ballot Quality Could Decide 2027

A county ballot-quality brief for Murang'a: rejection rate, turnout context, and practical fixes for campaigns ahead of...

May 19, 2026 2 min 10,395
Nandi Coalition Memo 29: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit
Nandi Coalition Memo 29: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit

A county-grounded brief for Nandi using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regist...

May 18, 2026 2 min 5,525
Nakuru Coalition Memo 28: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit
Nakuru Coalition Memo 28: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit

A county-grounded brief for Nakuru using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regis...

May 17, 2026 2 min 4,479
Nairobi City Coalition Memo 27: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit
Nairobi City Coalition Memo 27: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit

A county-grounded brief for Nairobi City using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure,...

May 16, 2026 2 min 4,381