Kenya Election Insights

Data-driven analysis of Kenya's elections from 2007 to 2022

Filtering by: voter-turnout ×

Showing 1-12 of 156 posts

Homa Bay Field Note 2: Mt. Kenya Shockwaves, By-Election Lessons, and the 2027 Ground Game
Homa Bay Field Note 2: Mt. Kenya Shockwaves, By-Election Lessons, and the 2027 Ground Game

A county-grounded brief for Homa Bay using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, reg...

Jun 10, 2026 2 min 10,853
Garissa Field Note 1: Mt. Kenya Shockwaves, By-Election Lessons, and the 2027 Ground Game
Garissa Field Note 1: Mt. Kenya Shockwaves, By-Election Lessons, and the 2027 Ground Game

A county-grounded brief for Garissa using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regi...

Jun 09, 2026 2 min 3,349
MOMBASA: How turnout discipline can flip swing zones (Fastest Registration Growth)
MOMBASA: How turnout discipline can flip swing zones (Fastest Registration Growth)

Data-backed campaign playbook for MOMBASA: turnout trajectory, registration depth, margin risk, and how to plan agents a...

Jun 09, 2026 2 min 8,069
BUNGOMA: Predicting 2027 pressure points from 2022 numbers (Fastest Registration Growth)
BUNGOMA: Predicting 2027 pressure points from 2022 numbers (Fastest Registration Growth)

Data-backed campaign playbook for BUNGOMA: turnout trajectory, registration depth, margin risk, and how to plan agents a...

Jun 04, 2026 2 min 5,386
MACHAKOS: Stronghold protection vs expansion strategy (Fastest Registration Growth)
MACHAKOS: Stronghold protection vs expansion strategy (Fastest Registration Growth)

Data-backed campaign playbook for MACHAKOS: turnout trajectory, registration depth, margin risk, and how to plan agents...

May 30, 2026 2 min 1,677
KILIFI: Where campaigns should invest in voter contact (Fastest Registration Growth)
KILIFI: Where campaigns should invest in voter contact (Fastest Registration Growth)

Data-backed campaign playbook for KILIFI: turnout trajectory, registration depth, margin risk, and how to plan agents an...

May 25, 2026 2 min 6,647
Mombasa Rejected Ballot Watch: Where Ballot Quality Could Decide 2027
Mombasa Rejected Ballot Watch: Where Ballot Quality Could Decide 2027

A county ballot-quality brief for Mombasa: rejection rate, turnout context, and practical fixes for campaigns ahead of 2...

May 25, 2026 2 min 3,801
Predicting 2027 Turnout: What Historical Data Tells Us
Predicting 2027 Turnout: What Historical Data Tells Us

Kenya's turnout has fallen from 86% to 65% across three elections. With registration projected to reach 24-26 million by...

May 23, 2026 5 min 6,497
KAKAMEGA: How turnout discipline can flip swing zones (Fastest Registration Growth)
KAKAMEGA: How turnout discipline can flip swing zones (Fastest Registration Growth)

Data-backed campaign playbook for KAKAMEGA: turnout trajectory, registration depth, margin risk, and how to plan agents...

May 20, 2026 2 min 678
Murang'a Rejected Ballot Watch: Where Ballot Quality Could Decide 2027
Murang'a Rejected Ballot Watch: Where Ballot Quality Could Decide 2027

A county ballot-quality brief for Murang'a: rejection rate, turnout context, and practical fixes for campaigns ahead of...

May 19, 2026 2 min 10,396
MERU: Predicting 2027 pressure points from 2022 numbers (Fastest Registration Growth)
MERU: Predicting 2027 pressure points from 2022 numbers (Fastest Registration Growth)

Data-backed campaign playbook for MERU: turnout trajectory, registration depth, margin risk, and how to plan agents and...

May 15, 2026 2 min 6,617
Machakos Rejected Ballot Watch: Where Ballot Quality Could Decide 2027
Machakos Rejected Ballot Watch: Where Ballot Quality Could Decide 2027

A county ballot-quality brief for Machakos: rejection rate, turnout context, and practical fixes for campaigns ahead of...

May 13, 2026 2 min 6,360