2022's Historic Low Turnout: Only 64.77% of Registered Voters Showed Up

7.8 million Kenyans registered to vote in 2022 but didn’t show up. That’s more than the entire population of Rwanda. It’s more than the combined populations of Botswana and Namibia. And it’s a number that should alarm anyone who cares about democracy in East Africa.

Kenya’s 2022 general election recorded a national turnout of 64.77%. That’s down from 78% in 2017 and roughly 86% in 2013. The trend is unmistakable: each election cycle, more Kenyans are registering but fewer are voting. Out of 22,120,458 people on the voter register, only 14,326,751 cast a ballot. The remaining 7,793,707 stayed home.

The IEBC’s Post-Election Evaluation Report flagged this as one of the most concerning trends from 2022, recommending “participatory research on factors contributing to low voter turnout” as a high priority for future electoral cycles.

So what happened? And more importantly, where did it happen?

The National Trend: Declining Turnout Since 2013

The line tells the story. Kenya’s voter turnout has dropped roughly 10 percentage points per election cycle since 2013:

• 2013: ~86% turnout (12.3 million of 14.3 million registered)
• 2017: ~78% turnout (15.1 million of 19.6 million registered)
• 2022: 64.77% turnout (14.3 million of 22.1 million registered)

Here’s what makes this alarming: the raw number of voters actually decreased between 2017 and 2022. In 2017, roughly 15.1 million valid votes were cast. In 2022, only 14.2 million valid votes were cast. Kenya added 2.5 million new voters to the register but got 800,000 fewer votes. That’s not voter growth — that’s voter collapse.

The Bottom 10: Where Turnout Was Lowest

Turnout was not evenly distributed. Some counties saw more than three-quarters of voters show up. Others barely managed half. Here are the 10 counties with the lowest turnout:

The bottom 10 counties by turnout in 2022 were:

1. Mombasa: 43.76% (642,362 registered, ~281,113 voted)
2. Kilifi: 49.03% (588,842 registered, ~288,687 voted)
3. Garissa: 54.86% (201,513 registered, ~110,550 voted)
4. Kwale: 54.94% (328,316 registered, ~180,368 voted)
5. Nairobi: 55.96% (2,416,551 registered, ~1,352,236 voted)
6. Vihiga: 60.13% (310,063 registered, ~186,448 voted)
7. Machakos: 60.20% (687,691 registered, ~413,997 voted)
8. Kakamega: 60.29% (844,709 registered, ~509,281 voted)
9. Turkana: 60.63% (238,554 registered, ~144,631 voted)
10. Makueni: 61.05% (479,516 registered, ~292,727 voted)

Notice a pattern? The Coast region dominates the bottom of the list. Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, and Garissa all had turnout below 55%. These are also predominantly Odinga-leaning counties. If even a fraction of the missing Coast voters had shown up, the national presidential margin of 233,211 would have been much tighter.

The Top 10: Where Voters Showed Up

On the other end, some counties had turnout approaching 80%:

1. Bomet: 79.88%
2. West Pokot: 79.51%
3. Kericho: 78.56%
4. Elgeyo/Marakwet: 77.96%
5. Narok: 77.73%
6. Baringo: 77.59%
7. Nandi: 76.05%
8. Migori: 74.49%
9. Homa Bay: 73.70%
10. Kisumu: 71.37%

Six of the top 10 are Rift Valley counties — Ruto’s backyard. The other four are Luo Nyanza counties — Odinga’s stronghold. The message is clear: voters in political strongholds turned out at much higher rates than voters in mixed or urban areas.

This creates a structural advantage. When your stronghold counties vote at 80% and your opponent’s lean-counties vote at 50%, you don’t need to win more counties. You just need your people to show up more reliably.

2013 vs 2017 vs 2022: The County-Level Collapse

The turnout decline was not uniform. Some counties held steady while others fell off a cliff. Here’s how the top and bottom counties compare across three elections:

The most dramatic drops include:

• Mombasa: From ~65% in 2017 to 43.76% in 2022 — a 21-point collapse
• Nairobi: From ~72.6% in 2017 to 55.96% in 2022 — a 17-point drop
• Kilifi: From ~65% in 2017 to 49.03% in 2022 — a 16-point drop
• Kakamega: From ~74% in 2017 to 60.29% in 2022 — a 14-point drop

The counties that held up best were the strongholds. Bomet went from ~82% in 2017 to 79.88% in 2022. Homa Bay went from ~80% to 73.70%. The most politically engaged counties stayed engaged.

Why Kenyans Didn’t Vote

The IEBC report and various analyst assessments point to several factors behind the turnout collapse:

1. Economic frustration. Many Kenyans felt that elections hadn’t improved their lives. The cost of living was high, and the promise of change felt hollow after three consecutive cycles.
2. Candidate fatigue. Raila Odinga was running for president for the fifth time. Some voters — even his supporters — had “vote fatigue.”
3. Youth disengagement. 40% of registered voters (8.8 million) were under 35, but youth turnout was disproportionately low. Many young Kenyans viewed politics as irrelevant to their daily struggles.
4. Logistical barriers. Long queues, distant polling stations, and the requirement to vote in your registered location (not where you live) all suppressed urban turnout.
5. Trust deficit. After the 2017 Supreme Court annulment and the subsequent boycotted fresh election, some voters questioned whether their votes would count.

The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics demographic data shows that Kenya’s population is increasingly young and urban. Both groups historically have lower turnout. Without targeted interventions, the downward trend is likely to continue into 2027.

The 2027 Turnout Question

If the trend continues, 2027 could see turnout drop below 60% for the first time. That would mean a president elected by fewer than 7 million people in a country of 55 million — a legitimacy question that no democracy can ignore.

But the data also shows opportunity. Those 7.8 million registered non-voters are not permanently lost. They’re registered. They have voter cards. They chose not to use them. The party or candidate that figures out how to bring even 10% of them back gets an extra 780,000 votes — more than three times the 2022 presidential margin.

For the full presidential results analysis, see Ruto vs Odinga: The Closest Race Since 2013. For a deep dive into Nairobi’s turnout crisis specifically, read our Nairobi county spotlight. And for context on how turnout affects battleground counties, check out the Narok and Kajiado analysis.

Don’t let turnout surprise you in 2027. Votrack’s real-time polling station monitoring shows turnout percentages as they develop throughout election day. Know which wards are lagging, which stations have long queues, and where your agents need to focus. Turnout wins elections — and data wins turnout. Request a demo.