Kenya Election Insights

Data-driven analysis of Kenya's elections from 2007 to 2022

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Showing 1-12 of 24 posts

Garissa Field Note 1: Mt. Kenya Shockwaves, By-Election Lessons, and the 2027 Ground Game
Garissa Field Note 1: Mt. Kenya Shockwaves, By-Election Lessons, and the 2027 Ground Game

A county-grounded brief for Garissa using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regi...

Jun 09, 2026 2 min 3,349
Cabinet Casualties in 2007: A Voter Backlash Pattern
Cabinet Casualties in 2007: A Voter Backlash Pattern

A deeper 2007 brief built from validated project data points: presidential totals, parliamentary seat split, petition ba...

Jun 02, 2026 2 min 3,233
Maendeleo Chap Chap and Other Small Parties: Where They Won in 2017
Maendeleo Chap Chap and Other Small Parties: Where They Won in 2017

Beyond Jubilee and ODM, Kenya's 2017 election saw remarkable results from small parties. Maendeleo Chap Chap won a gover...

May 31, 2026 5 min 8,604
How Many Parties Does Kenya Really Need? The 41-Party Parliament
How Many Parties Does Kenya Really Need? The 41-Party Parliament

Kenya's 2017 election produced a parliament fragmented across 41 political parties. Jubilee and ODM dominated, but dozen...

Oct 07, 2025 5 min 7,508
ANC, FORD-Kenya, and Wiper: Western and Eastern Kenya's Opposition in Numbers
ANC, FORD-Kenya, and Wiper: Western and Eastern Kenya's Opposition in Numbers

Within the NASA coalition, three parties carved out regional kingdoms. Wiper held the most seats overall with 108 across...

Sep 07, 2025 6 min 6,102
The KANU Factor: From 39 Years of Power to 8 Seats
The KANU Factor: From 39 Years of Power to 8 Seats

The Kenya African National Union (KANU) was the ruling party from 1963 to 2002 -- 39 years of unbroken power. By 2017, t...

Aug 23, 2025 5 min 2,617
The Parliamentary-Presidential Mismatch in 2007
The Parliamentary-Presidential Mismatch in 2007

A deeper 2007 brief built from validated project data points: presidential totals, parliamentary seat split, petition ba...

Jul 11, 2025 2 min 10,427
The ORPP Agents Quick Guide: Why Every Party Official in Kenya Needs This Document
The ORPP Agents Quick Guide: Why Every Party Official in Kenya Needs This Document

The ORPP Agents Quick Guide (June 2022) is mandatory reading for every party official, candidate, and polling agent in K...

Jun 01, 2025 7 min 11,527
Women Representatives: How Jubilee Dominated the 47 County Women Rep Seats
Women Representatives: How Jubilee Dominated the 47 County Women Rep Seats

In the 2017 General Election, Jubilee claimed 25 of 47 county Women Representative seats. ODM trailed with 11. But the r...

May 31, 2025 5 min 11,187
The Electoral Code of Conduct in Kenya: What Every Agent and Candidate Must Follow
The Electoral Code of Conduct in Kenya: What Every Agent and Candidate Must Follow

Kenya's Electoral Code of Conduct binds all candidates, parties, and their agents. It mandates respect for opponents, no...

Apr 05, 2025 6 min 9,548
The Agent Communication Hierarchy: How Election Results Flow from Station to Headquarters
The Agent Communication Hierarchy: How Election Results Flow from Station to Headquarters

Kenya's election agent communication hierarchy has four tiers: Polling Station Agent, Constituency Chief Agent, County C...

Mar 22, 2025 6 min 3,724
The MCA Landscape: 1,448 Wards, 41 Parties, and the Most Diverse Political Arena
The MCA Landscape: 1,448 Wards, 41 Parties, and the Most Diverse Political Arena

The 2017 MCA elections were the most politically diverse contest in Kenya. While 21 parties won National Assembly seats,...

Jan 15, 2025 5 min 8,294