Kitui and Tharaka-Nithi share a border in Eastern Kenya. They are physically adjacent. But in 2022, they voted as if they were on different planets. Kitui gave Raila Odinga 71.53% of the vote. Tharaka-Nithi gave William Ruto 89.79%. The gap between these two neighbours — over 61 percentage points — is one of the sharpest border contrasts anywhere in Kenyan electoral geography.
This divide runs along ethnic lines: Kitui is predominantly Kamba (who backed the Azimio coalition), while Tharaka-Nithi is predominantly Meru/Tharaka (who backed Ruto’s UDA). Understanding this border tells you everything about how ethnicity, community leadership, and coalition politics shape Kenyan elections.
The 2022 Presidential Results
Kitui County:
- Raila Odinga (Azimio): 235,402 votes (71.53%)
- William Ruto (UDA): 89,419 votes (27.17%)
- George Wajackoyah: 2,840 votes (0.86%)
- David Mwaure: 1,412 votes (0.43%)
- Total valid votes: 329,073 | Rejected: 3,324 | Turnout: 62.38%
Tharaka-Nithi County:
- William Ruto (UDA): 145,081 votes (89.79%)
- Raila Odinga (Azimio): 15,062 votes (9.32%)
- George Wajackoyah: 974 votes (0.60%)
- David Mwaure: 461 votes (0.29%)
- Total valid votes: 161,578 | Rejected: 980 | Turnout: 70.08%
The contrast could not be starker. Odinga’s 235,402 votes in Kitui versus his 15,062 in Tharaka-Nithi. Ruto’s 145,081 in Tharaka-Nithi versus his 89,419 in Kitui. These are neighbouring counties where crossing the border means entering a completely different political reality.
The Ethnic and Coalition Logic
Kitui is a Kamba-majority county. The Kamba community has historically aligned with Raila Odinga’s coalitions, dating back to the 2007 ODM alliance. In 2022, Kalonzo Musyoka’s position as Azimio’s running mate cemented Kamba support for Odinga.
Tharaka-Nithi is predominantly Meru and Tharaka. The Meru community, like the broader Mt. Kenya region, swung decisively toward Ruto in 2022 after backing Kenyatta in 2013 and 2017. The Meru elite’s alignment with UDA carried the county with near-total unanimity.
The result is a political border that runs almost exactly along the ethnic boundary. According to the IEBC, Kitui has 532,833 registered voters and Tharaka-Nithi has 231,966 — making Kitui more than twice the size. But Tharaka-Nithi’s higher turnout (70.08% vs 62.38%) partially compensates for its smaller electorate.
Historical Comparison: 2017 vs 2022
The divide existed in 2017 but was less extreme:
Kitui:
- 2017: Odinga 287,293 (79.89%), Kenyatta 64,652 (17.98%)
- 2022: Odinga 235,402 (71.53%), Ruto 89,419 (27.17%)
- Odinga’s share fell 8.36 percentage points
Tharaka-Nithi:
- 2017: Kenyatta 162,529 (93.15%), Odinga 10,355 (5.93%)
- 2022: Ruto 145,081 (89.79%), Odinga 15,062 (9.32%)
- Ruto’s share dipped 3.36 points from Kenyatta’s mark
The interesting finding is that both counties became slightly more competitive in 2022 compared to 2017. Odinga lost ground in Kitui (from 79.89% to 71.53%), while Ruto’s share in Tharaka-Nithi dipped from Kenyatta’s 93.15%. The divide is still enormous, but the edges are softening.
The Daily Nation reported that the Kamba vote in 2022 was less unified than in previous elections, with some Kitui voters drawn to Ruto’s economic messaging despite the Kalonzo factor. Meanwhile, Martha Karua’s candidacy on the Azimio ticket pushed Odinga’s numbers slightly higher in Tharaka-Nithi than they would have been otherwise.
Map the Political Border in Real Time
When neighbouring counties vote 61 points apart, constituency-level tracking is essential. Votrack shows you exactly where the political fault line runs — and which side of it each polling station falls on.
Request a DemoWhat the Divide Means for Eastern Kenya
The Kitui-Tharaka-Nithi divide is a microcosm of Eastern Kenya’s broader split. The Kamba counties (Kitui, Machakos, Makueni) all backed Odinga, while the Meru/Embu counties (Tharaka-Nithi, Meru, Embu) all backed Ruto:
- Kitui: 71.53% Odinga
- Machakos: 74.29% Odinga
- Makueni: 78.81% Odinga
- Tharaka-Nithi: 89.79% Ruto
- Meru: 78.77% Ruto
- Embu: 85.08% Ruto
The pattern is remarkably clean. Every Kamba county went Odinga; every Meru/Embu county went Ruto. The Kenya Law Reports archive past election petitions from these counties, and the petition rates in border constituencies are historically higher — reflecting the tension that comes from competitive, divided political environments.
Lessons for 2027
- Ethnic borders still define political borders. The Kamba-Meru line is as sharp as any ethnic boundary in Kenya. Campaigns must plan separately for each community.
- The edges are softening. Both counties moved slightly toward centre in 2022. This suggests that economic messaging can cross ethnic lines, even if the overall pattern remains.
- Kitui’s turnout gap is an opportunity. At 62.38%, Kitui significantly underperformed Tharaka-Nithi’s 70.08%. Closing that gap would give Odinga (or his successor) tens of thousands more votes.
The Eastern divide plays out across hundreds of polling stations on both sides of the border. Votrack tracks every station in both Kitui and Tharaka-Nithi simultaneously, giving you real-time intelligence on how the political map is shaping up on election night. Request a demo and see the divide as it unfolds.
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