2022 County Spotlight: Busia — Where Odinga Got 81.68%

Busia gave Raila Odinga 81.68% of the vote in 2022 — his strongest result in all of Western Kenya. He won 226,042 votes to Ruto’s 48,801 (17.63%). But here is the twist: next door, Bungoma gave Ruto 63.16%. These two neighbouring Luhya counties produced completely opposite results. The Busia-Bungoma divide is one of the most striking political contrasts in Western Kenya.

With 416,818 registered voters and a turnout of 67.08%, Busia was also one of the more mobilised counties in the region. Its loyalty to Odinga stood firm even as other Western Kenya counties shifted.

The 2022 Presidential Result in Busia

• Raila Odinga (Azimio): 226,042 votes (81.68%)
• William Ruto (UDA): 48,801 votes (17.63%)
• George Wajackoyah (Roots): 1,414 votes (0.51%)
• David Mwaure (Agano): 473 votes (0.17%)
• Total valid votes: 276,730
• Rejected ballots: 2,889
• Registered voters: 416,818
• Turnout: 67.08%

Odinga’s margin was 177,241 votes. For a county of 416,818 registered voters, that is commanding. Ruto’s 48,801 votes represent a genuine minority presence — larger than his numbers in Siaya (4,320) or Homa Bay (3,497), but still overwhelmed by Odinga’s support.

Busia vs Bungoma: The Western Kenya Split

The contrast with neighbouring Bungoma could not be starker:

Busia:

• Odinga: 226,042 (81.68%)
• Ruto: 48,801 (17.63%)
• Margin: 177,241 for Odinga

Bungoma:

• Ruto: 255,906 (63.16%)
• Odinga: 145,280 (35.86%)
• Margin: 110,626 for Ruto

These are both Luhya-majority counties. But the Luhya are Kenya’s second-largest ethnic group with multiple sub-communities, and they do not vote as a bloc. Busia is predominantly Teso and Samia (sub-groups that have historically aligned with Odinga), while Bungoma is predominantly Bukusu (who were mobilised by local UDA leaders including the governor and several MPs).

The Daily Nation’s coverage noted that Western Kenya’s 2022 vote was shaped more by sub-ethnic dynamics and local leadership allegiances than by a unified regional identity.

Cross-Election Comparison: 2017 vs 2022

Busia:

• 2017: Odinga 239,296 (86.82%), Kenyatta 34,239 (12.42%)
• 2022: Odinga 226,042 (81.68%), Ruto 48,801 (17.63%)
• Odinga’s share dropped 5.14 points; Ruto gained 5.21 points over Kenyatta

Busia was slightly less one-sided in 2022 than in 2017, but the shift was modest compared to other Western counties. Odinga lost about 13,254 votes (from 239,296 to 226,042) while the opposition gained 14,562 (from 34,239 to 48,801). This 5-point erosion is much smaller than Kakamega’s 16-point drop or Bungoma’s complete reversal.

What kept Busia loyal? The Teso and Samia communities have deep connections to the Odinga political brand dating back to the FORD-Kenya era. Local leadership — particularly the governor’s alignment with Azimio — reinforced the presidential vote. And Busia’s border economy (it sits on the Kenya-Uganda crossing) creates different economic concerns than the agriculturally-focused Bungoma.

The Rejected Ballot Picture

Busia’s 2,889 rejected ballots represent 1.03% of all ballots cast — above the national average of 0.80%. While not extreme, this rate is higher than Busia’s 2017 figure of 2,272 rejected ballots (0.82% of votes cast). The upward trend is concerning in a county where voter education resources are limited.

According to the IEBC’s post-election evaluation, border counties like Busia face additional challenges from cross-border population movements that can complicate voter registration and identity verification.

Lessons for 2027

1. Busia is loyal but not invulnerable. A 5-point drop from 2017 shows that even strong counties can erode. Maintaining 81% requires active engagement, not assumed loyalty.
2. The Busia-Bungoma contrast shows that "Western Kenya" is fiction. There is no single Western vote. There are Teso/Samia dynamics, Bukusu dynamics, Maragoli dynamics, and more. Each requires separate strategy.
3. Turnout was a bright spot. At 67.08%, Busia outperformed the national average and most Western counties. This mobilisation advantage helped Odinga maximise his county-level margin.

For legal documentation on election conduct in border counties, see the Kenya Law Reports.

Busia’s 760 polling stations span the Kenyan-Ugandan border region. Votrack tracks every one, flagging anomalies in rejected ballots and turnout patterns as results arrive. Request a demo and protect Western Kenya’s most loyal electorate.