2022 County Spotlight: Vihiga — The Smallest Western County’s Big Vote

Vihiga is the smallest county in Western Kenya by both area and electorate. With 310,063 registered voters, it is dwarfed by neighbouring Kakamega (844,709) and Bungoma (646,612). But Vihiga punches above its weight in political significance. Odinga won it with 62.23% (114,714 votes), but Ruto’s 36.69% (67,633 votes) was surprisingly strong for a Western Kenya county. And then there is the rejected ballot problem: 2,115 spoiled ballots gave Vihiga a 1.15% rejection rate — among the highest in Kenya.

Small size does not mean simple politics. Vihiga’s 2022 results reveal a county that is more competitive than its neighbours and plagued by preventable ballot spoilage.

The 2022 Presidential Result

• Raila Odinga (Azimio): 114,714 votes (62.23%)
• William Ruto (UDA): 67,633 votes (36.69%)
• George Wajackoyah (Roots): 1,471 votes (0.80%)
• David Mwaure (Agano): 515 votes (0.28%)
• Total valid votes: 184,333
• Rejected ballots: 2,115
• Registered voters: 310,063
• Turnout: 60.13%

Odinga’s margin was 47,081 votes — comfortable but not overwhelming. At 62.23%, Vihiga was actually the least pro-Odinga county in Western Kenya (excluding Bungoma, which Ruto won). Compare: Busia gave Odinga 81.68% and Kakamega gave him 71.04%. Vihiga’s 62.23% is closer to a battleground than a stronghold.

The Rejected Ballot Crisis

Vihiga’s 2,115 rejected ballots represent 1.15% of all ballots cast. That is well above the national average of 0.80%. To put this in perspective:

• National rejection rate: 0.80% (113,614 rejected out of 14,326,751 total ballots)
• Vihiga rejection rate: 1.15% (2,115 out of 186,448)
• Vihiga ranks among the top 10 counties by rejection rate

In a county where the margin was 47,081 votes, 2,115 rejected ballots are not decisive. But they represent real voters who went to the trouble of queuing and casting a ballot, only to have their vote discarded. And if the rejection rate could be reduced to the national average (0.80%), approximately 652 additional valid votes would be counted.

The IEBC’s post-election evaluation linked high rejection rates to inadequate voter education, particularly in rural areas where literacy rates are lower. Vihiga’s dense rural population — it is Kenya’s most densely populated rural county — means that voter education per capita is more challenging than in urban areas with concentrated populations.

2017 vs 2022: The Shift

Vihiga has shifted more than most people realise:

• 2017: Odinga 179,140 (89.39%), Kenyatta 18,275 (9.12%)
• 2022: Odinga 114,714 (62.23%), Ruto 67,633 (36.69%)

This is a 27-point drop for Odinga — one of the largest declines in any county. Odinga lost 64,426 votes in absolute terms, while Ruto gained 49,358 over Kenyatta’s 2017 figure. The total valid votes also dropped from 200,392 to 184,333 (−16,059).

What happened? Vihiga is predominantly Maragoli (a Luhya sub-community), and the Maragoli political establishment was divided in 2022. The former Vice President Musalia Mudavadi’s alignment with Ruto through the Kenya Kwanza coalition pulled significant Maragoli support toward UDA. This local factor explains Vihiga’s outsized swing compared to other Western counties.

The Daily Nation reported extensively on the Mudavadi factor in Western Kenya, noting that his ANC party’s alliance with UDA shifted the calculus in Vihiga and, to a lesser extent, in parts of Kakamega.

Vihiga in the Western Kenya Context

Among the four Western Kenya counties, Vihiga’s position is clear:

• Busia: 81.68% Odinga — strongest loyalty
• Kakamega: 71.04% Odinga — solid
• Vihiga: 62.23% Odinga — weakening
• Bungoma: 63.16% Ruto — flipped entirely

Vihiga is the canary in the coal mine for Western Kenya. If the trend continues, Vihiga could follow Bungoma’s trajectory and become genuinely competitive or even flip. The 27-point drop between 2017 and 2022 is the steepest erosion in the Odinga column anywhere in Western Kenya.

Turnout: Another Challenge

Vihiga’s turnout of 60.13% was the lowest in Western Kenya and below the national average of 64.77%. Approximately 123,615 registered voters did not vote. In a county of just 310,063, that is nearly 40% of the electorate sitting out.

The combination of low turnout and high rejection rates means Vihiga is a county where both mobilisation and voter education have significant room for improvement. For a relatively small county, targeted interventions could have outsized impact.

Lessons for 2027

1. Vihiga is the most vulnerable Odinga county in Western Kenya. A 27-point drop in one cycle suggests deep structural forces at work, not a temporary fluctuation.
2. The Mudavadi factor is real. Political leadership alignment at the local level can override regional voting patterns. Whoever secures Maragoli elite support in 2027 has a massive advantage.
3. Rejected ballots are a fixable problem. 2,115 ballots at 1.15% is above average. Targeted voter education in Vihiga’s densely populated rural wards could reduce this significantly.

For legal provisions on ballot validity and rejection criteria, see the Elections (General) Regulations, 2012.

Vihiga’s 548 polling stations serve Kenya’s most densely populated rural county. Votrack monitors every station, tracking rejected ballots, turnout, and candidate totals in real time. In a county where the margins are narrowing, data is the difference between holding and losing ground. Request a demo and stay ahead of the shift.