The Closest MP Race in 2013: Won by Just 24 Votes in Tarbaj

24 votes. That's all that separated the winner from the loser in Tarbaj constituency. In Baringo South, the margin was even smaller: just 3 votes. The 2013 election produced some of the tightest parliamentary races in Kenya's history.

Kenya's 2013 general election saw 290 constituency seats contested for the National Assembly. While the presidential race grabbed headlines, some of the most dramatic outcomes happened at the constituency level. In at least 10 races, fewer than 500 votes separated the winner from the runner-up.

The 10 Closest MP Races in 2013

Here are the tightest parliamentary battles from the IEBC's official 2013 results:

1. Baringo South (Baringo County): Won by just 3 votes. The URP candidate took 8,205 votes against KANU's 8,202.
2. Bura (Tana River County): Decided by 11 votes. Ali Wario (TNA) edged out Nuh Nassir Abdi (Wiper) with 8,586 to 8,575.
3. Tarbaj (Wajir County): A margin of just 24 votes in this North Eastern constituency.
4. Kuria East (Migori County): Shadrack Roger Mwita (KANU) won by 45 votes, taking 7,928 to 7,883.
5. Loima (Turkana County): Akujah Protus Ewesit (ODM) prevailed by 98 votes over Christopher Imana (URP), 5,109 to 5,011.
6. Taveta (Taita Taveta County): Naomi Shaban (TNA) defeated Basil Criticos by 106 votes, 6,357 to 6,251.
7. Ijara (Garissa County): Ahmed Ibrahim Abass (ODM) won by 185 votes over Sophia Abdi Noor (URP), 4,566 to 4,381.
8. Webuye West (Bungoma County): Daniel Wanyama Sitati (New FORD-K) took it by 210 votes, 11,238 to 11,028.
9. Kibwezi West (Makueni County): Patrick Musimba ran as an independent and won by 251 votes, 17,217 to 16,966.
10. Saboti (Trans Nzoia County): David Wafula Wekesa (New FORD-K) won by 266 votes, 9,574 to 9,308.

What Do Thin Margins Mean?

When 3 votes separate a winner from a loser, every detail matters. A single polling station's count can flip the result. A handful of spoiled ballots might change a career. These margins raise important questions:

• Agent presence: Were there party agents at every polling station? A missed station means unchecked results.
• Rejected ballots: In Baringo South, even 4 rejected ballots could have changed the outcome if they were valid votes for the runner-up.
• Recount accuracy: At these margins, the difference between winning and losing fits inside a single ballot box.

The Regional Pattern

The closest races in 2013 were concentrated in specific regions. North Eastern and Coast counties appeared repeatedly on the list. These areas share common traits: lower voter registration, fewer polling stations, and challenging logistics.

Of the 10 closest races, 4 were in arid and semi-arid counties (Baringo South, Bura, Tarbaj, and Loima). These are areas where voter turnout depends heavily on weather, security, and infrastructure. A single road closure or security incident can suppress hundreds of votes.

Petitions and Recounts

Unsurprisingly, many of these tight races ended up in court. Under Kenyan election law, any registered voter can petition an election result within 28 days. When the margin is 3 votes, the incentive to petition is obvious.

The IEBC reported that the 2013 elections generated over 180 election petitions across all levels. Many of the tightest races saw legal challenges that dragged on for months.

Lessons for 2027

The 2013 close races teach one clear lesson: every vote matters. For candidates, this means:

• Invest in voter mobilization down to the polling station level
• Ensure agents are present at every single stream
• Build a parallel tallying system to verify results in real time
• Focus on areas with historically low turnout — that's where swing votes hide

For a deeper look at Kenya's tightest races across multiple elections, see our analysis of 2022's closest races. Also read about how the 2013 presidential race was decided by similarly thin margins at the national level.

What This Pattern Means for 2027

Historical election numbers are most useful when they are turned into field actions. For The Closest MP Race in 2013: Won by Just 24 Votes in Tarbaj, your campaign can use this history to decide where to invest agents, transport, and voter mobilisation before election day.

• Set target turnout by ward: Use past turnout as your baseline, then assign a realistic uplift target for each ward and polling centre.
• Track strongholds hour by hour: If turnout in your core areas is below plan by midday, deploy rapid mobilisation teams early, not late.
• Protect evidence quality: Keep a clean chain of results forms, incident notes, and station-level logs to support legal review if needed.

For primary reference material, review the IEBC official resources, Kenya Law election jurisprudence, and the IEBC election regulations.

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