Coast Region 2022: Joho's Exit, Nassir's Rise, and the Governor Musical Chairs

In 2022, something remarkable happened on Kenya's Coast: every single county changed its governor. A 100% turnover rate across all six coastal counties — Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Tana River, and Lamu. No other region in Kenya came close to this level of political upheaval.

The reasons varied — term limits, party switches, voter fatigue, and the unique dynamics of Coast politics. But the result was the same: an entirely new set of governors taking office in a region that has historically felt marginalized by Nairobi and left behind by national politics.

Mombasa: The Joho to Nassir Handover

Hassan Joho was term-limited after two terms as Mombasa governor. His preferred successor, Abdulswamad Sharrif Nassir, won with 52.4% of the vote, defeating Mike Sonko (who had been impeached as Nairobi governor) and several other candidates. The election was essentially a referendum on the Joho machine.

Nassir ran on the ODM ticket and benefited from Joho's grassroots network, but his margin was closer than many expected. Mombasa's voter turnout was just 43.2% — among the lowest in Kenya. The apathy problem that has plagued Coast politics for years showed no signs of improving.

At the presidential level, Mombasa voted 55.4% for Raila and 41.1% for Ruto — a comfortable Azimio margin but not as dominant as some had predicted. The Kenya Kwanza campaign made inroads in areas like Mvita and Likoni, suggesting that Ruto's economic message resonated even in an ODM stronghold.

Kilifi: The Kingi Defection and Its Consequences

Kilifi's story was perhaps the most dramatic. Governor Amason Kingi — who had won two terms as an ODM stalwart — defected to Kenya Kwanza and ran for senator instead of seeking a third term (which was constitutionally impossible). His new party, PAA, was supposed to be the Coast's vehicle for political independence. Instead, it fizzled.

The governor's race was won by Gideon Mung'aro (ODM/Azimio) with 48.7%, defeating several candidates. Mung'aro had previously served as Kilifi North MP and represented a return to ODM dominance in the county after Kingi's rebellion.

At the presidential level, Kilifi was the Coast's strongest Raila county at 67.9%. The Kingi defection did not move the presidential vote — Kilifi voters separated their county and national allegiances, supporting ODM candidates locally while following the Raila train nationally.

Kwale, Taita Taveta, and the Smaller Counties

In Kwale, governor Salim Mvurya (who had switched from Jubilee to UDA) was term-limited. Fatuma Achani (UDA) won the governor's seat with 55.2%, becoming one of only a few female governors elected in 2022. Notably, Kwale was one of the few Coast counties where UDA won the governorship — a testament to Mvurya's groundwork in building a Kenya Kwanza presence.

In Taita Taveta, Andrew Mwadime (ODM) replaced term-limited Granton Samboja in a competitive race. The county's presidential vote went 64.2% Raila, consistent with its historical opposition alignment.

In Tana River, Dado Godhana (Kenya Kwanza) won the governorship, flipping the county from its previous ODM alignment. Tana River's small electorate (approximately 122,000 registered voters) means that local clan dynamics often matter more than national party affiliations.

In Lamu, Issa Timamy (PAA/Kenya Kwanza) retained the governorship for his alliance — one of the few continuity stories on the Coast. Lamu's tiny electorate (53,000 registered voters) makes it Kenya's smallest county by registered voters, and its politics are driven by a handful of influential families.

The Presidential Vote: Coast Stayed with Raila

Despite the governor-level upheaval, the Coast's presidential vote was relatively predictable. Raila won five of six counties:

• Kilifi: 67.9% Raila
• Taita Taveta: 64.2% Raila
• Kwale: 55.8% Raila
• Mombasa: 55.4% Raila
• Tana River: 47.3% Raila (lost to Ruto's 50.2%)
• Lamu: 40.1% Raila (lost to Ruto's 56.8%)

The Coast delivered approximately 640,000 net votes for Raila — a significant contribution but not enough to overcome the massive margins Ruto ran up in the Rift Valley and Mt Kenya. The persistent low turnout on the Coast — averaging around 51% across the region — meant that the total vote volume was smaller than it could have been.

Why 100% Turnover?

Several factors combined to produce the Coast's total governor replacement:

Term limits: Three governors (Joho, Mvurya, Samboja) were constitutionally barred from running again. This guaranteed at least 50% turnover.

Party switches: Kingi's defection from ODM created chaos in Kilifi. In Tana River, the outgoing governor's party switch alienated his base. Voters punished disloyalty.

Anti-incumbency sentiment: Coast residents have consistently expressed frustration with governance outcomes. Despite devolution bringing significant resources to coastal counties, visible service delivery improvements have been slow. Voters channeled that frustration into change at the governor level.

The Azimio vs Kenya Kwanza split: With the Coast politically divided between Azimio (Mombasa, Kilifi, Taita Taveta) and Kenya Kwanza (Kwale, Tana River, Lamu), the coalition dynamics created competitive races in every county. No incumbent could coast on party dominance alone.

What It Means for 2027

The Coast's total reset means that by 2027, every governor will be first-term incumbents seeking re-election. History suggests that first-term governors in Kenya have a 60-70% re-election rate — much higher than the zero percent the Coast produced in 2022. If the trend holds, 2027 will see more continuity and fewer surprises on the Coast.

But the region's bigger question remains: can the Coast produce a serious presidential contender? With Joho out of office and building a national profile, and with the Raila vacancy creating space for new figures, 2027 could be the year the Coast finally puts someone on the national stage.

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