2022 County Spotlight: Taita Taveta, Kwale, and Kilifi — The Coast’s Odinga Vote

The Coast region has been Odinga country for three consecutive elections. In 2022, Kilifi gave him 71.64%, Kwale gave him 70.13%, and Taita Taveta gave him 72.89%. All three counties delivered comfortable margins. But here is the problem: turnout was dismal. Kilifi managed just 49.03%, Kwale 54.94%, and Taita Taveta 61.77%. In a national election decided by 233,211 votes, the Coast’s missing voters are a strategic catastrophe for any Odinga-aligned coalition.

Together, these three counties had 1,099,284 registered voters but produced only 575,999 valid votes. Over half a million registered Coastal voters stayed home.

The 2022 Presidential Results

Kilifi County:

• Raila Odinga: 204,536 votes (71.64%)
• William Ruto: 77,331 votes (27.08%)
• Total valid votes: 285,496 | Rejected: 3,191 | Turnout: 49.03%

Kwale County:

• Raila Odinga: 125,541 votes (70.13%)
• William Ruto: 51,918 votes (29.00%)
• Total valid votes: 179,009 | Rejected: 1,359 | Turnout: 54.94%

Taita Taveta County:

• Raila Odinga: 81,271 votes (72.89%)
• William Ruto: 29,148 votes (26.14%)
• Total valid votes: 111,494 | Rejected: 999 | Turnout: 61.77%

Combined, Odinga received 411,348 votes from these three counties against Ruto’s 158,397. That is a combined margin of 252,951 votes — larger than Ruto’s entire national margin of 233,211. The Coast’s Odinga vote is substantial. But imagine if turnout had matched the national average of 64.77% instead of the Coast’s actual rates.

The Turnout Crisis

Kilifi’s 49.03% turnout is the second-lowest of any county in Kenya (after Mombasa’s 43.76%). More than half of Kilifi’s 588,842 registered voters did not vote. In absolute numbers:

• Kilifi: ~300,155 registered voters stayed home
• Kwale: ~147,948 stayed home
• Taita Taveta: ~69,633 stayed home
• Total non-voters: ~517,736

If these three counties had matched Homa Bay’s turnout of 73.70%, they would have produced approximately 810,000 votes instead of 576,000 — an additional 234,000 ballots. Distributed at their existing ratios (roughly 71% Odinga, 28% Ruto), that would have given Odinga an extra ~100,000 net votes nationally.

The IEBC’s post-election evaluation identified low civic engagement, long distances to polling stations, and high poverty rates as contributing factors to Coast region turnout challenges. The evaluation specifically recommended research into factors driving the turnout decline.

Historical Comparison: 2017 vs 2022

The Coast’s Odinga alignment has strengthened over time:

Kilifi:

• 2017: Odinga 274,179 (83.59%), Kenyatta 49,575 (15.12%)
• 2022: Odinga 204,536 (71.64%), Ruto 77,331 (27.08%)
• Odinga’s share dropped 12 points, but Kilifi’s total vote collapsed

Kwale:

• 2017: Odinga 138,565 (74.82%), Kenyatta 43,694 (23.59%)
• 2022: Odinga 125,541 (70.13%), Ruto 51,918 (29.00%)
• Similar pattern: lower share, but still dominant

Taita Taveta:

• 2017: Odinga 79,990 (70.99%), Kenyatta 31,127 (27.63%)
• 2022: Odinga 81,271 (72.89%), Ruto 29,148 (26.14%)
• Taita Taveta was the only one that actually improved for Odinga

The Standard Digital attributed the Coast’s lower turnout in 2022 to election fatigue and a sense that the presidential race would be decided elsewhere.

Coast Region Comparison

The full Coast picture includes Mombasa, Tana River, and Lamu alongside these three counties:

• Taita Taveta: 72.89% Odinga, 61.77% turnout
• Kilifi: 71.64% Odinga, 49.03% turnout
• Kwale: 70.13% Odinga, 54.94% turnout
• Mombasa: 58.07% Odinga, 43.76% turnout
• Tana River: 54.96% Odinga, 67.02% turnout
• Lamu: 52.25% Odinga, 62.55% turnout

The entire Coast leaned Odinga, but the margins and turnout varied significantly. Tana River and Lamu were more competitive, and both had better turnout than Kilifi or Mombasa. The inverse relationship between margin and turnout is notable: the most lopsided counties had the lowest turnout.

Lessons for 2027

1. The Coast’s vote is loyal but lazy. 70%+ for Odinga in all three counties, but turnout below 55% in Kilifi and Kwale. The loyalty is there; the mobilisation is not.
2. Turnout is the single biggest variable. Bringing Kilifi’s turnout from 49% to 65% would produce over 94,000 additional votes, most going to the Odinga camp.
3. Rejected ballots add up. Kilifi’s 3,191 + Kwale’s 1,359 + Taita Taveta’s 999 = 5,549 rejected Coast ballots. Voter education at the Coast is underfunded.

For documentation on Coast region electoral provisions, see the Kenya Law Reports.

Kilifi, Kwale, and Taita Taveta have over 1,900 polling stations combined. When half your voters stay home, knowing exactly which stations are underperforming in real time is the difference between winning and losing. Votrack delivers that intelligence. Request a demo and mobilise the Coast.