The Cost of Petitions: 446 Court Cases and What They Achieved

36 petitions in 2007. 188 in 2013. 446 in 2017. The number of election challenges exploded by 1,138%. But the success rate collapsed from 47% to 7.8%. More cases, fewer results.

After every Kenyan general election, the courts fill up with election petitions. Losing candidates challenge results, alleging irregularities, violence, bribery, or non-compliance with electoral law. The data from three election cycles reveals a striking pattern: as more candidates have learned to petition, the courts have become less willing to overturn results.

In 2007, just 36 petitions were filed. Of those, 17 were dismissed, 17 were successful (47.22% success rate), and 2 were struck out. That is an extraordinary success rate. Nearly half of all petitions led to election results being overturned.

By 2013, the number had jumped to 188 petitions. The result: 115 dismissed, 24 successful (12.77%), 31 struck out, and 17 withdrawn. The success rate fell by three-quarters, from 47% to under 13%.

Then came 2017, when 446 petitions flooded the courts, a 137% increase from 2013 and a 1,138% increase from 2007. The outcomes: 398 dismissed and only 35 successful (7.85%). The success rate hit single digits.

Petitions Filed: The Explosion

The chart shows the dramatic growth in petition filings. Why did the numbers explode?

Several factors converged. First, the 2010 constitution created more elective positions (governors, senators, women representatives, county assembly members), which created more positions to challenge. Second, the judiciary became more accessible, with courts established in all 47 counties. Third, and perhaps most importantly, the Supreme Court's 2017 nullification of the presidential election sent a powerful signal that courts could and would overturn results. If the highest court could nullify a presidential election, lower courts could surely handle constituency disputes.

But the nullification was the exception, not the rule. For every petition that succeeded, twelve or more were dismissed. The courts set a high bar for evidence, requiring petitioners to prove not just irregularities but that those irregularities materially affected the outcome.

Outcomes by Year: Success vs Dismissal

The stacked bar chart tells the story in proportions. In 2007, the split was roughly 50-50 between success and failure. By 2017, successful petitions were a thin sliver of the total. The dismissed and struck-out categories dominated.

The 2017 petition breakdown by position reveals where challenges concentrated:

• MCA (Ward): 139 petitions, 127 dismissed, 12 successful (8.63%)
• MP (National Assembly): 98 petitions, 91 dismissed, 7 successful (7.14%)
• Governor: 35 petitions, 32 dismissed, 3 successful (8.57%)
• Senator: 15 petitions, 15 dismissed, 0 successful (0%)
• Women Rep: 12 petitions, 11 dismissed, 1 successful (8.33%)

The zero success rate for senate petitions stands out. All 15 were dismissed. The governor petitions had the best success rate at 8.57%, but even there, 32 of 35 challengers left court empty-handed.

The Success Rate Collapse

The declining success rate has two explanations. The optimistic view is that elections have gotten better. Improved technology, better training, and stronger oversight have reduced genuine irregularities, meaning fewer petitions have merit. The 2022 election's 100% electronic transmission and 99.5% biometric authentication support this view.

The pessimistic view is that courts have raised the evidentiary bar so high that even legitimate grievances cannot meet it. The requirement to prove that irregularities materially affected the outcome means that a petitioner needs evidence from enough polling stations to account for the entire margin of victory. For a gubernatorial race won by 50,000 votes, that is an enormous burden.

The truth likely includes both factors. Elections have improved. And courts have become more rigorous. The net effect is that petitions are increasingly an expensive, time-consuming exercise that rarely changes outcomes.

According to the IEBC's 2017 Post-Election Report, the commission recommended improving the quality of electoral processes to reduce the basis for petitions, rather than relying on courts as a corrective mechanism. The Daily Nation reported that the total cost of the 446 petitions in 2017 ran into billions of shillings, straining both the judiciary and the candidates who filed them.

For analysis of the 2017 Supreme Court nullification that fuelled the petition explosion, see our piece on what the numbers say about the annulment. And for the specific breakdown of 2017's 35 successful petitions, read what makes a petition succeed.

According to Kenya Law records, election petition cases consume a significant proportion of judicial time and resources, with strict timelines imposed by the constitution that create pressure on courts to resolve cases quickly.

Prevention beats litigation. Votrack's station-level monitoring identifies irregularities in real time, allowing parties to address problems before they become petition material. Solid parallel tally data also provides the evidence courts demand when petitions are necessary. Request a demo for 2027.