2022 County Spotlight: Uasin Gishu — Ruto’s Capital at 77.99%

Uasin Gishu — home of Eldoret, Ruto’s political base — gave him 77.99%. But that was lower than you might expect from a candidate’s home county.

In Kenyan politics, your home county is supposed to be your fortress. Uhuru Kenyatta got 92.63% in Kiambu in 2017. The late Raila Odinga got 97.44% in Kisumu that same year. So when William Ruto’s home county of Uasin Gishu delivered 77.99%, many observers raised an eyebrow.

The numbers were clear: 272,868 votes for Ruto against 76,009 for the late Raila (21.73%). That is a comfortable margin of 196,859 votes. But the percentage raises an interesting question: why did Ruto underperform at home relative to other candidates in their home counties?

The Eldoret Effect

The answer is Eldoret. Kenya’s fifth-largest city is not purely Kalenjin. Eldoret is a cosmopolitan trading hub that attracted significant Luo, Luhya, Kikuyu, and Kisii populations over decades. These communities have deep roots in the city and its surrounding farms, and they did not all vote for Ruto.

Compare Uasin Gishu’s 77.99% with other Kalenjin-majority counties: Nandi gave Ruto 91.30%, Elgeyo-Marakwet gave 96.86%, Bomet gave 95.27%, and Kericho gave 95.32%. All of these are more ethnically homogeneous than Uasin Gishu. The more diverse the population, the lower the dominant candidate’s share — a pattern visible across Kenya.

According to Kenya National Bureau of Statistics census data, Uasin Gishu’s urban population is approximately 40%, one of the highest in the Rift Valley. Urban areas tend to produce more competitive results because they bring together people from multiple ethnic backgrounds.

Ruto’s 77.99% in Context

While 77.99% sounds like it might be a weakness, let us be clear: it was still a dominant performance. Ruto’s 272,868 votes from Uasin Gishu were more total votes than many counties delivered for either candidate combined. With 506,317 registered voters and a turnout of 69.51%, the county punched above its weight in raw vote contribution.

The chart shows a pattern that tells the story of the cosmopolitan dilution effect. In the rural, ethnically homogeneous Kalenjin counties, Ruto pushed well above 90%. In Uasin Gishu, with Eldoret’s diverse population, he settled at 78%. This is not a sign of weakness — it is a sign of demographic reality.

In fact, Uasin Gishu’s result closely mirrors what happened in Nairobi for the late Raila. The late Raila got 57.29% in cosmopolitan Nairobi compared to 97-99% in his rural Luo Nyanza base. Urban diversity creates a ceiling that even the most popular candidates cannot break through.

Odinga’s 21.73% — A Significant Minority

The late Raila’s 76,009 votes in Uasin Gishu deserve attention. This was not a token presence. These votes came primarily from the Luo, Luhya, and Kisii communities in Eldoret and surrounding areas. Some also came from Kalenjin professionals in Eldoret who had links to Odinga’s Azimio coalition through local business networks.

There were also 594 votes for George Wajackoyah and 392 for David Waihiga Mwaure — negligible individually but contributing to the picture of a county where political choices were not monolithic. The 2,083 rejected ballots were modest for a county of this size.

The 2017 Comparison

In 2017, Ruto was not the presidential candidate — he was Kenyatta’s running mate. The Jubilee ticket won Uasin Gishu overwhelmingly, with Kenyatta getting approximately 85% of the vote. So Ruto’s 77.99% in 2022 actually represented a slight decrease from the Jubilee baseline, even though Ruto himself was now the main candidate.

This makes sense when you consider that some of the non-Kalenjin voters who backed Kenyatta-Ruto in 2017 (particularly Kikuyu voters) may have split their loyalties in 2022. Without Kenyatta on the ballot, these voters had to choose between Ruto (their former coalition partner) and the late Raila (Kenyatta’s new preferred candidate). Most chose Ruto, but not all.

What Eldoret Tells Us About Urban Kenya

Uasin Gishu’s result is part of a broader pattern in Kenya’s growing cities. As urban centres become more cosmopolitan, they become harder for any single candidate to dominate. Nairobi (57.29% for the late Raila), Mombasa (58.06% for the late Raila), Nakuru (66.44% for Ruto), and Uasin Gishu (77.99% for Ruto) all show candidates winning comfortably but falling well short of the 90%+ margins they achieve in rural ethnic strongholds.

For election observers and political strategists, this means Kenya’s elections will increasingly be decided in these cosmopolitan spaces where pure ethnic mobilisation is not enough. The candidate who can build cross-ethnic urban coalitions will have a significant advantage.

What Uasin Gishu Means for 2027

For Ruto, Uasin Gishu is a safe base that needs no defending in 2027. His real challenge is maintaining the 90%+ margins in places like Nandi, Kericho, and Bomet where Kalenjin unity delivered overwhelming numbers. If any cracks appear in those counties, Uasin Gishu’s 78% will not be enough to compensate.

For the opposition, Uasin Gishu’s diversity offers a theoretical opportunity. If a credible opposition candidate can push Ruto below 70% here while maintaining strong performances in Western Kenya and Nyanza, the arithmetic starts to shift. But breaking through in another candidate’s home county has proven extremely difficult in Kenyan politics. Read more about Ruto’s Rift Valley dominance in our Nandi and Baringo spotlight.

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