2022 County Spotlight: Nandi and Baringo — Deep Rift Valley

Nandi gave William Ruto 91.30% of the vote in 2022 — the 3rd-highest percentage he received in any county, behind only Elgeyo/Marakwet (96.86%) and Kericho (95.32%). Neighbouring Baringo gave him 80.69%. Both are solidly in Ruto’s column, but the 11-point gap between them tells a story about the Rift Valley’s internal diversity. Nandi is almost uniformly Nandi-Kalenjin; Baringo has significant Tugen, Pokot, Ilchamus, and Endorois populations with different political calculations.

Together, these two counties had 687,500 registered voters and delivered 455,983 votes for Ruto. That is a raw vote contribution larger than the entire electorate of many counties.

The 2022 Presidential Results

Nandi County:

• William Ruto (UDA): 280,813 votes (91.30%)
• Raila Odinga (Azimio): 26,034 votes (8.47%)
• George Wajackoyah: 447 votes (0.15%)
• David Mwaure: 281 votes (0.09%)
• Total valid votes: 307,575 | Rejected: 1,492 | Turnout: 76.05%

Baringo County:

• William Ruto (UDA): 175,170 votes (80.69%)
• Raila Odinga (Azimio): 41,227 votes (18.99%)
• George Wajackoyah: 474 votes (0.22%)
• David Mwaure: 220 votes (0.10%)
• Total valid votes: 217,091 | Rejected: 1,014 | Turnout: 77.59%

Nandi’s 91.30% leaves almost no room for opposition. Odinga’s 26,034 votes are spread across 6 constituencies, averaging just 4,339 per constituency. In Baringo, Odinga’s 41,227 votes (18.99%) are more meaningful — concentrated in the lowland constituencies of Baringo South, Tiaty, and Baringo Central where non-Kalenjin communities have a stronger presence.

Historical Comparison: 2017 vs 2022

Nandi:

• 2017: Kenyatta 235,243 (86.84%), Odinga 33,848 (12.49%)
• 2022: Ruto 280,813 (91.30%), Odinga 26,034 (8.47%)
• Ruto gained +45,570 votes and +4.46 percentage points over Kenyatta

Baringo:

• 2017: Kenyatta 161,423 (84.78%), Odinga 27,748 (14.58%)
• 2022: Ruto 175,170 (80.69%), Odinga 41,227 (18.99%)
• Ruto gained +13,747 raw votes but lost 4.09 percentage points

The two counties moved in opposite directions. Nandi consolidated further around Ruto, exceeding Kenyatta’s 2017 mark. Baringo actually became slightly more competitive — Odinga’s share rose from 14.58% to 18.99%. This reflects Baringo’s more diverse ethnic composition, particularly in constituencies like Tiaty (Pokot) and Baringo South (Tugen, Endorois, Ilchamus).

The IEBC official results show that Baringo’s turnout was 77.59%, slightly higher than Nandi’s 76.05%. Both counties significantly outperformed the national average of 64.77%.

The Rift Valley Dominance Spectrum

Nandi and Baringo represent two points on the Rift Valley’s dominance spectrum. Here is where all Rift Valley counties fall:

• Elgeyo/Marakwet: 96.86% Ruto
• Kericho: 95.32% Ruto
• Bomet: 95.27% Ruto
• Nandi: 91.30% Ruto
• Baringo: 80.69% Ruto
• Uasin Gishu: 78.00% Ruto
• Nakuru: 66.44% Ruto
• West Pokot: 63.30% Ruto
• Narok: 48.10% Ruto (Odinga won)

The pattern is clear: the more ethnically homogeneous the county (Nandi, Kericho, Bomet), the higher Ruto’s percentage. The more diverse the county (Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Narok), the more competitive it becomes. Baringo sits in between, with its mix of Tugen, Pokot, and minority communities creating a less uniform political profile.

According to Standard Digital’s analysis, the Rift Valley’s high turnout rates are driven by strong community mobilisation networks and the perception that the presidential race has direct implications for local resource allocation.

Baringo’s Network Coverage Challenge

Baringo faces significant infrastructure issues. In 2017, 267 of 892 polling stations (29.93%) had zero network coverage, and another 91 (10.20%) relied on satellite. The county’s Tiaty constituency, which stretches into the Kerio Valley, is among the most infrastructure-challenged in Kenya.

Nandi, by contrast, had only 22 stations (2.76%) with no coverage. The infrastructure disparity between these neighbouring counties mirrors their political difference: where infrastructure is better, the vote is more uniform; where it is worse, there is more variation and less central control over the narrative.

Lessons for 2027

1. Nandi is a fortress. At 91.30%, there is minimal opposition infrastructure. Ruto’s challenge is maintaining turnout, not winning converts.
2. Baringo is more nuanced. With 19% for Odinga and significant minority populations, Baringo rewards targeted constituency-level campaigning.
3. High turnout is the Rift Valley’s superpower. Both counties turn out above 76%, amplifying their raw vote contributions beyond what registration alone would suggest.

For the legal framework governing elections in frontier and pastoralist areas, see the Elections Act, 2011.

Nandi and Baringo combine for nearly 1,700 polling stations across rugged Rift Valley terrain. Votrack’s multi-channel tallying ensures every station — including the 267 in Baringo with no network — can report results. Request a demo and cover the deep Rift Valley.