2022 County Spotlight: Marsabit and Isiolo — The Surprising Northern Split

Marsabit was one of Kenya’s closest county-level races in 2022. William Ruto won 58,782 votes (51.16%) against Raila Odinga’s 55,675 votes (48.45%). The margin? Just 3,107 votes. That is smaller than many individual polling station totals in Nairobi. Next door, Isiolo gave Ruto 54.77% against Odinga’s 44.85% — more comfortable, but still competitive. In the arid north, where most assume politics is settled by clan loyalty, these two counties defy the narrative.

Together, Marsabit and Isiolo had 256,479 registered voters. Their turnout — 69.12% and 66.47% respectively — exceeded the national average, suggesting these communities take elections seriously despite the logistical challenges.

The 2022 Presidential Results

Marsabit County:

• William Ruto (UDA): 58,782 votes (51.16%)
• Raila Odinga (Azimio): 55,675 votes (48.45%)
• George Wajackoyah: 303 votes (0.26%)
• David Mwaure: 144 votes (0.13%)
• Total valid votes: 114,904 | Rejected: 481 | Turnout: 69.12%

Isiolo County:

• William Ruto (UDA): 32,302 votes (54.77%)
• Raila Odinga (Azimio): 26,449 votes (44.85%)
• George Wajackoyah: 175 votes (0.30%)
• David Mwaure: 52 votes (0.09%)
• Total valid votes: 58,978 | Rejected: 536 | Turnout: 66.47%

Marsabit’s 3,107-vote margin is extraordinary for a county where turnout was 69.12%. If just 1,554 voters had switched sides, the county would have flipped. In a national election decided by 233,211 votes, counties with margins this thin are the real battlegrounds.

Marsabit: A Dramatic Reversal from 2017

Marsabit’s 2022 result represents a massive shift from 2017, when the county was a Kenyatta stronghold:

• 2017: Kenyatta 92,696 (83.63%), Odinga 16,003 (14.44%)
• 2022: Ruto 58,782 (51.16%), Odinga 55,675 (48.45%)

Odinga’s vote nearly quadrupled — from 16,003 to 55,675. Ruto’s share collapsed from Kenyatta’s 83.63% to just 51.16%. This is a swing of over 32 percentage points away from the Jubilee/UDA camp.

Similarly in Isiolo:

• 2017: Kenyatta 26,746 (49.42%), Odinga 18,931 (34.98%) [with Dida taking 14.62%]
• 2022: Ruto 32,302 (54.77%), Odinga 26,449 (44.85%)

The shift in both counties reflects changing alliances among Borana, Rendille, Gabra, Sakuye, and Somali communities. The The East African reported that Marsabit’s gubernatorial race, which pitted Borana candidates against each other, created a downstream effect on presidential voting patterns.

Marsabit vs the Rest of Northern Kenya

Marsabit’s near-dead-heat stands out against the broader northern Kenya landscape. Most northern counties leaned clearly one way:

• Turkana: 66.97% Odinga
• Samburu: 59.33% Odinga
• Marsabit: 51.16% Ruto (margin: 3,107)
• Isiolo: 54.77% Ruto
• West Pokot: 63.30% Ruto
• Garissa: 74.01% Odinga

Marsabit sits at the exact pivot point of northern Kenya. To its west, Turkana and Samburu lean Odinga. To its east, Wajir and Garissa lean Odinga. To its south, Isiolo and Meru lean Ruto. Marsabit is the one northern county where neither camp has a reliable advantage.

Infrastructure and Turnout Challenges

Both counties face significant infrastructure challenges. In 2017, the IEBC network coverage data showed:

• Marsabit: 142 of 384 stations (37%) had no network coverage
• Isiolo: 48 of 195 stations (24.6%) had no network coverage

Despite these challenges, turnout in both counties exceeded the national average. Marsabit’s 69.12% was particularly impressive given that some polling stations are accessible only by camel or on foot. The IEBC airlifted materials to Marsabit for the 2022 election.

Lessons for 2027

1. Marsabit is a genuine swing county. A 3,107-vote margin means either side could win it. Targeted investment in GOTV could flip the county.
2. Northern politics is not monolithic. The assumption that the north votes as a bloc is wrong. Marsabit and Isiolo show real variation even within adjacent counties.
3. Small counties with thin margins punch above their weight. Marsabit’s 114,904 valid votes may seem small, but in a national election decided by 233,211 votes, flipping it represents a 6,214-vote swing (twice the margin).

For historical petition data from northern counties, see the Kenya Law Reports.

Marsabit and Isiolo have nearly 600 polling stations, many with no network coverage. When the margin is 3,107 votes, you cannot afford a single unreported station. Votrack’s USSD, SMS, and satellite-enabled tallying covers every channel. Request a demo and ensure no vote goes uncounted.