2022 County Spotlight: Garissa, Wajir, and Mandera — The Northeastern Bloc

The three Northeastern counties — Garissa, Wajir, and Mandera — are often lumped together in political analysis. They share arid geography, Somali-majority demographics, and infrastructure challenges. But in 2022, their presidential votes were far from identical. Mandera gave Odinga 78.40%. Garissa gave him 74.01%. And Wajir? A surprisingly competitive 62.59%. The Northeastern bloc is more politically varied than most analysts acknowledge.

Together, these three counties had 626,314 registered voters. Their combined turnout ranged from 54.86% (Garissa) to 64.69% (Wajir). Understanding the internal dynamics of this region is essential for any campaign targeting the 2027 cycle.

The 2022 Presidential Results

Garissa County:

• Raila Odinga: 81,376 votes (74.01%)
• William Ruto: 28,111 votes (25.56%)
• Total valid votes: 109,960 | Rejected: 590 | Turnout: 54.86%

Wajir County:

• Raila Odinga: 83,486 votes (62.59%)
• William Ruto: 49,062 votes (36.78%)
• Total valid votes: 133,391 | Rejected: 1,014 | Turnout: 64.69%

Mandera County:

• Raila Odinga: 106,279 votes (78.40%)
• William Ruto: 28,351 votes (20.91%)
• Total valid votes: 135,565 | Rejected: 846 | Turnout: 62.85%

The variation is striking. Wajir’s 62.59% for Odinga is 16 percentage points lower than Mandera’s 78.40%. Ruto’s 36.78% in Wajir is his strongest Northeastern performance — nearly double what he achieved in Garissa (25.56%) or Mandera (20.91%).

The Dramatic Political Reversal from 2017

The 2017-to-2022 shift in Northeastern Kenya is among the most dramatic in the country. In 2017, these counties overwhelmingly backed Uhuru Kenyatta and Jubilee:

• Mandera 2017: Kenyatta 112,456 (82.90%), Odinga 17,984 (13.26%)
• Mandera 2022: Odinga 106,279 (78.40%), Ruto 28,351 (20.91%)
• Garissa 2017: Kenyatta 54,783 (48.38%), Odinga 54,356 (48.00%)
• Garissa 2022: Odinga 81,376 (74.01%), Ruto 28,111 (25.56%)
• Wajir 2017: Kenyatta 60,508 (50.98%), Odinga 52,362 (44.12%)
• Wajir 2022: Odinga 83,486 (62.59%), Ruto 49,062 (36.78%)

Mandera’s reversal is extraordinary. It went from 82.90% for Kenyatta in 2017 to 78.40% for Odinga in 2022 — a swing of over 65 percentage points in net support. This was driven by local political alliances, clan dynamics, and the broader Azimio coalition’s outreach to Northeastern leaders.

Garissa was already competitive in 2017 (Kenyatta 48.38% vs Odinga 48.00% — a margin of just 427 votes). By 2022, Odinga had opened a 53,265-vote lead. And even Wajir, the most competitive of the three, swung from a slight Kenyatta lead to a 34,424-vote Odinga advantage.

Why Wajir Was Different

Wajir’s relative competitiveness stands out. Several factors explain why Ruto performed better here than in Garissa or Mandera:

1. Clan alignments: Wajir’s sub-clan dynamics differ from Mandera’s. Certain Degodia and Ogaden sub-clans had existing relationships with UDA-aligned leaders.
2. Local gubernatorial politics: The governor’s race in Wajir created split allegiances that carried over to the presidential ballot.
3. Higher turnout: Wajir’s 64.69% turnout was the highest of the three counties, suggesting more competitive mobilisation from both sides.

According to The East African’s coverage, the Northeastern political landscape in 2022 was shaped less by national coalition identities and more by localised clan and patronage networks that aligned differently county by county.

Turnout and Infrastructure Challenges

The Northeastern counties face acute turnout challenges. In 2017, network coverage data from the IEBC showed:

• Garissa: 113 stations (29.66%) with no coverage
• Wajir: 159 stations (36.64%) with no coverage
• Mandera: 94 stations (23.44%) with no coverage; 225 (56.11%) on satellite

Materials for these counties were airlifted by the IEBC, as road transport was deemed too slow and risky. Despite these efforts, the northeastern turnout remained below the national average. Garissa’s 54.86% was particularly low, driven by security concerns and the sheer distance between homesteads and polling stations.

What the Northeast Tells Us About 2027

1. Bloc voting is a myth. Three counties, three different results. Mandera went 78% Odinga while Wajir was a more competitive 63%. Treating the Northeast as a monolith misses real variation.
2. Reversals can be total. Mandera’s 65-point swing from Kenyatta to Odinga shows that Northeastern loyalty follows local alliances, not national party brands.
3. Wajir is the swing county. With a 26-point Odinga margin (vs 57 in Mandera), Wajir is where campaigns should invest most in 2027.

For the legal and administrative framework governing elections in frontier counties, see the Kenya Law Reports.

Garissa, Wajir, and Mandera have over 1,200 polling stations across some of the most challenging terrain in East Africa. Votrack’s multi-channel tallying works via web, USSD, SMS, and Telegram — because when the nearest cell tower is 100km away, you need every channel available. Request a demo and bring transparency to the frontier.