Youth Candidates vs Youth Winners: The 9.2% Success Rate

A young woman running for MCA had a 7.8% chance of winning. A young man had 9.4%.

The 2017 general election saw 3,428 young Kenyans (under 35) put their names on the ballot across all elective positions. Of those, 3,209 were male and 219 were female. When the votes were counted, only 314 had won — 295 men and 19 women. That is an overall success rate of 9.2%, but the story becomes far more revealing when you break it down by position and gender.

The Position-by-Position Breakdown

Not all races were created equal for young candidates. Here is how youth candidates performed across the six elective positions:

Presidential

Zero youth candidates ran for president in 2017. The youngest presidential candidate was well above 35. The presidency remains the most age-restricted position in Kenyan politics — not by law, but by the realities of campaign infrastructure, funding, and coalition building.

Gubernatorial

Seven young men ran for governor. One won. That is a 14.3% success rate — the highest of any position. No young woman ran for governor in 2017.

Senatorial

Thirty-five youth candidates ran for senate seats: 30 men and 5 women. Six men won, zero women. The male success rate was 20% for the senate, the highest success rate of any position-gender combination. For women, it was 0%.

Member of National Assembly

This is where the numbers get interesting. Of 260 youth candidates for MP, 248 were male and 12 were female. Fourteen men won (5.6% success rate) and 3 women won (25% success rate). Young women who ran for MP actually had the best odds of any group — though the sample size of 12 is small enough that this could be a statistical artifact.

Woman Representative

Thirty-five young women ran for the Women Representative position (reserved for women by the constitution). Three won, giving a success rate of 8.6%.

Member of County Assembly (MCA)

The MCA race was where the vast majority of youth candidates concentrated. Of 3,091 youth MCA candidates, 2,924 were male and 167 were female. Among men, 274 won (9.4% success rate). Among women, 13 won (7.8% success rate).

The Gender Gap in Numbers

Across all positions, the numbers paint a clear picture of gender inequality in youth political participation:

• Male candidates: 3,209 ran, 295 won (9.2% success rate)
• Female candidates: 219 ran, 19 won (8.7% success rate)

The overall success rates are close — 9.2% for men vs 8.7% for women. But the participation gap is enormous. Women made up only 6.4% of all youth candidates. For every young woman who ran, nearly 15 young men did.

The MCA Pipeline Problem

The MCA position is often called the "entry point" into Kenyan politics. It has the lowest barriers to entry: smaller constituencies, lower campaign costs, and more seats available (1,450 across the country). This is why 90.2% of all youth candidates (3,091 out of 3,428) ran for MCA.

But even at this most accessible level, the gender gap persisted. Only 167 young women ran for MCA compared to 2,924 young men. That is a 17.5-to-1 male-to-female ratio. And of those 167 women, only 13 won (7.8%), compared to 274 of 2,924 men (9.4%).

The pipeline problem is twofold: too few young women are entering politics at the MCA level, and those who do enter face slightly worse odds than their male counterparts.

Where the Senate Stood Out

The senate race was notable for having the highest male success rate (20%) among youth candidates. Six young men won senate seats out of 30 who ran. However, all 5 young women who ran for senate lost. The senate appears to be the most gender-unequal race for youth candidates in terms of outcomes.

For context, the Constitution of Kenya requires that no more than two-thirds of elected members of any body shall be of the same gender. Despite this provision, the reality on the ground in 2017 was far from meeting this threshold.

What Would It Take to Close the Gap?

The data suggests that increasing youth representation, particularly for young women, requires intervention at multiple levels:

• Participation: Only 219 young women ran in 2017. Increasing that number is the first challenge.
• Party support: Political parties control nominations, funding, and campaign infrastructure. Young women need equitable access to all three.
• MCA as springboard: With 1,450 MCA seats available, this is where the greatest opportunity exists for building a pipeline of young female leaders.
• Data-driven campaigns: Understanding voting patterns at the ward and polling station level helps candidates target their resources effectively.

This is exactly the kind of analysis that Votrack enables. By tracking results at the polling station level, campaigns can see exactly where youth and female candidates are gaining or losing ground.

Want to explore how youth and gender dynamics played out across specific counties? Request a demo and see the data for yourself.