Governors by the Numbers: Jubilee's 25-County Sweep in 2017

Jubilee won 25 of 47 governor seats. But two independents proved you don't need a party to run a county.

The 2017 governor's race was the clearest illustration of Kenya's two-coalition system. Jubilee Party swept 25 counties, primarily across the Mt. Kenya region, Rift Valley, and parts of the Coast and North Eastern provinces. ODM held firm in its traditional strongholds, taking 13 seats concentrated in Nyanza, Western Kenya, and the Coast.

The Full Party Breakdown

Here is how the 47 governor seats were distributed across political parties in 2017:

• Jubilee Party: 25 seats (53.2%)
• Orange Democratic Movement (ODM): 13 seats (27.7%)
• FORD-Kenya: 2 seats (4.3%)
• Wiper Democratic Movement: 2 seats (4.3%)
• Independent: 2 seats (4.3%)
• KANU: 1 seat (2.1%)
• Maendeleo Chap Chap (MCC): 1 seat (2.1%)
• NARC: 1 seat (2.1%)

The numbers tell a clear story: Jubilee and ODM together controlled 38 of 47 governor seats, or 80.9% of all counties. The remaining nine seats were split among six smaller parties and independents.

The Independent Factor

Two independent candidates won governor seats in 2017, a notable achievement in a political landscape dominated by party machinery. Running without a party ticket means no party funding, no national campaign infrastructure, and no presidential coattails. These two governors won on the strength of their personal brand and local support networks.

This matters because it shows that while parties dominate, local dynamics can override national trends. Voters in these counties chose the individual over the party, a pattern that Kenyan politics occasionally produces but rarely rewards.

Jubilee's Geographic Dominance

Jubilee's 25-county sweep was not random. It followed a clear geographic pattern tied to the party's ethnic coalition. The party won virtually every county in the Mt. Kenya region (Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Kiambu, Embu, Meru, Tharaka-Nithi), the Rift Valley corridor (Nakuru, Nandi, Kericho, Bomet, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Baringo), and key counties in North Eastern and Eastern provinces.

ODM's Stronghold Counties

ODM's 13 governor seats were concentrated in Nyanza (Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori), Western Kenya (Kakamega, Busia), and the Coast (Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale). These counties have been consistent ODM strongholds since the party's formation, and the 2017 results reinforced that pattern.

The Closest Races

Not all governor races were blowouts. Some counties saw razor-thin margins that led to election petitions. In Mombasa, for example, incumbent Governor Hassan Joho (ODM) won with 221,177 votes against Jubilee's Suleiman Shahbal who got 69,515 votes. But in Kwale, the race between ODM and Jubilee was much tighter, with Jubilee's Salim Mvurya Mgala winning with 119,680 votes.

Meanwhile in Tana River, the top three candidates were separated by fewer than 5,000 votes: ODM's Dhadho Godhana got 25,958, Jubilee's Tuneya Dado got 24,466, and Wiper's Nuh Abdalla got 21,677.

If you are tracking election results in real time, tight races like these are exactly where Votrack's parallel vote tallying makes the biggest difference. Knowing the count before the official announcement gives campaigns a critical strategic advantage.

What the Smaller Parties Tell Us

KANU, the former ruling party, managed just one governor seat in 2017. FORD-Kenya held two, primarily in Western Kenya. Wiper, the third-largest party in the NASA coalition, won two governor seats in the Ukambani region. Maendeleo Chap Chap took Machakos County, while NARC held one seat.

The fragmentation among smaller parties is significant. Together, these six non-major parties controlled just 9 seats, yet they represented very different political traditions and regional interests. This fragmentation would become even more pronounced in the 2022 election cycle.

Lessons for Future Elections

The 2017 governor's race established several patterns that political analysts track:

• Party dominance matters: 80.9% of seats went to the two biggest parties
• Geography is destiny: Party performance was tightly tied to ethnic and regional demographics
• Independents can win: But only 2 out of 47 did, a 4.3% success rate
• Smaller parties survive regionally: KANU, FORD-K, Wiper, and MCC each held pockets of influence

For political parties preparing for future elections, the data is clear: you need either national coalition strength or deep local roots to win a governor's seat.

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