Wajir, Garissa, and Mandera: The North Eastern Bloc in 2022

Wajir, Garissa, and Mandera — the three counties that constituted the old North Eastern Province — occupy a unique position in Kenyan electoral politics. With a combined registered electorate of roughly 600,000 voters, they represent just 2.7% of the national total. But their bloc voting pattern — driven by clan negotiations rather than individual candidate appeal — gives them disproportionate strategic importance. In 2022, the bloc backed Raila Odinga. For the first time in a generation, they picked the wrong side.

The 2022 Results

Garissa County:

• Registered voters: 178,073
• Raila Odinga: 70,821 (74.78%)
• William Ruto: 22,393 (23.64%)
• Turnout: 53.83%

Wajir County:

• Registered voters: 209,491
• Raila Odinga: 75,889 (63.22%)
• William Ruto: 42,277 (35.21%)
• Turnout: 57.96%

Mandera County:

• Registered voters: 217,694
• Raila Odinga: 83,411 (65.31%)
• William Ruto: 41,567 (32.55%)
• Turnout: 59.44%

Combined, the three counties gave Odinga a net advantage of approximately 123,883 votes. In a race decided by 233,211, that's over half the national margin — significant but not decisive. The bloc voted as expected (for Odinga), but the overall turnout was too low to be a game-changer.

How North Eastern Bloc Voting Works

North Eastern politics is fundamentally different from the rest of Kenya. While most Kenyan counties vote along ethnic lines with some internal variation, the North Eastern counties vote based on clan negotiations — a process that happens months before the election and involves community elders, religious leaders, and political brokers.

The key features:

1. Clan-based negotiation. In Somali politics, the three major clan families — Ogaden (dominant in Mandera and parts of Wajir), Degodia (Wajir), and Auliahan (Garissa) — negotiate collectively on which presidential candidate to support. The negotiation involves commitments on cabinet positions, infrastructure investment, and security guarantees in exchange for bloc support.

2. Top-down discipline. Once clan elders decide on a candidate, the community votes accordingly with remarkable discipline. This is why North Eastern vote shares (63-75%) are high and consistent — but not as extreme as ethnic-based voting in, say, Nyeri or Kisumu. The 25-35% opposition vote reflects minority clans or individuals who dissent from the bloc decision.

3. Strategic calculation. North Eastern leaders historically try to back the winner. The reasoning is pragmatic: a marginalised region with severe development deficits needs to be on the winning side to secure government investment. In 2013 and 2017, the bloc backed Kenyatta (the winner). In 2022, they backed Odinga — and lost.

Why They Backed Odinga in 2022

The 2022 alignment with Odinga reflected several factors:

• The Handshake dividend: After the 2018 Handshake between Uhuru and Odinga, government investment in North Eastern Kenya increased notably — the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia-Transport Corridor (LAPSSET), road construction, and security improvements. North Eastern leaders attributed this partly to their alliance with Uhuru, and by extension, to the Azimio coalition.
• Cabinet representation: Aden Duale (Garissa), a prominent Somali leader, was initially positioned as a potential Azimio-aligned figure before switching to Kenya Kwanza. Other Somali leaders, including former Defence CS Yusuf Haji's family network, leaned Azimio.
• Anti-Ruto sentiment: Parts of the Somali community were wary of Ruto due to his association with hardline security policies during the Jubilee era, including the Eastleigh crackdowns.

The Turnout Problem

North Eastern counties consistently have some of Kenya's lowest voter registration and turnout rates:

• Garissa turnout: 53.83% (national average: 64.77%)
• Wajir turnout: 57.96%
• Mandera turnout: 59.44%

Several factors suppress turnout:

• Security concerns: Al-Shabaab threats and inter-clan violence discourage voting in some areas. Polling stations near the Somali border operate under heavy military guard.
• Distance to polling stations: In pastoral areas, the nearest station may be 30-50 km from nomadic populations.
• Women's participation: Cultural factors reduce women's voter turnout, though this is changing gradually.
• Registration gaps: Many eligible voters lack the ID documents required for registration.

The Governor Factor

Governor races in North Eastern Kenya are often more competitive and more locally consequential than presidential voting:

• Garissa: Nathif Jama Adam won the governorship on UDA — running against the presidential bloc vote. This split-ticket voting is characteristic of North Eastern politics: vote for your clan's governor regardless of the presidential alignment.
• Wajir: Ahmed Abdullahi won on a Jubilee ticket with 52.74% — another example of split-ticket voting.
• Mandera: Mohamed Adan won the governorship on UDA with 74.3% — the widest gubernatorial margin in the region, driven by Degodia clan dynamics.

The governor results show that North Eastern voters are more sophisticated than the bloc-voting narrative suggests. They follow clan leadership on the presidential ballot but exercise independent judgment on local races.

What North Eastern Means for 2027

The key question for 2027 is whether the bloc will realign with the incumbent (Ruto) or remain in opposition. Historical precedent strongly favours pragmatic realignment — the community's development needs are too urgent to be on the losing side for two consecutive cycles.

With Raila Odinga's passing, the opposition's pull on North Eastern is weaker. The bloc's negotiating position will depend on what Ruto offers — cabinet positions, LAPSSET progress, security improvements, and development fund allocations. If the offer is strong enough, the three counties could flip to Kenya Kwanza in 2027, potentially shifting 120,000+ net votes from the opposition column to the government column.

For more on the region, see our existing spotlights on Garissa, Wajir, and Mandera.

600,000 voters. One negotiated decision. The North Eastern bloc is small but strategic. Track its impact in real time with Votrack. Book your demo today.