The Losing Presidential Candidates: Where Are They Now?

On August 15, 2022, three men learned they would not be Kenya's next president. One year later, their trajectories could not be more different. One became an AU chairman nominee. One became a meme. One disappeared entirely.

Raila Odinga: From Nairobi to Addis Ababa

Raila Amolo Odinga received 6,942,930 votes (48.85%) in the 2022 presidential election, his fifth attempt at the presidency. The loss was the closest he had come to victory since the disputed 2007 election, falling short by 233,211 votes. After the Supreme Court dismissed his petition in September 2022, Odinga's political journey took an unexpected international turn.

In early 2023, Odinga announced his candidacy for the African Union Commission (AUC) Chairmanship, a position that would make him the head of Africa's premier continental body. The move was seen as both a graceful exit from domestic politics and a recognition that at 78 (at the time), another presidential run was unlikely.

President William Ruto, in a remarkable political pivot, endorsed Odinga's AU bid. The endorsement was mutually beneficial: Ruto removed his most formidable domestic rival from the political scene, while Odinga gained the backing of the Kenyan government's diplomatic machinery. The two former rivals appeared together at multiple public events, prompting what Kenyans dubbed the "handshake 2.0".

By mid-2023, Odinga was campaigning across Africa, visiting heads of state and regional bodies. His campaign focused on trade, infrastructure, and African self-reliance, themes that resonated with his decades of pan-African advocacy. The AU election was scheduled for early 2025.

Then, in October 2025, Raila Odinga passed away, ending a political career that spanned four decades and five presidential campaigns. His death left an enormous vacuum in Kenyan opposition politics, particularly in Luo Nyanza, where he had been the undisputed political leader since the 1990s. The implications for ODM, Azimio, and the broader opposition landscape are still unfolding as Kenya approaches 2027.

George Wajackoyah: Professor, Performer, Phenomenon

George Luchiri Wajackoyah of the Roots Party received 61,969 votes (0.44%), a minuscule share of the presidential vote. But his impact on the 2022 campaign was vastly disproportionate to his vote share. Wajackoyah ran on a platform of legalizing marijuana, farming snakes and hyenas for export, and adopting a four-day work week. His campaign was dismissed by political analysts but embraced by young Kenyans as a form of political protest.

After the election, Wajackoyah became a cultural phenomenon. His campaign catchphrases entered Kenyan slang. He appeared on comedy shows, podcasts, and social media platforms. His YouTube interviews routinely attracted 1-2 million views, more than most sitting politicians.

Politically, Wajackoyah maintained the Roots Party as a registered entity and hinted at a 2027 presidential run. While no serious analyst believed he could win, his role as a protest candidate and youth engagement vehicle gave him a platform that transcended traditional politics. The question of whether he drew votes from Odinga in 2022 (the "Wajackoyah factor") remained debated, though analysis suggested his voters were primarily abstention alternatives rather than committed Odinga supporters.

By 2024, Wajackoyah had diversified into motivational speaking and legal consultancy, leveraging his fame. He remained a fixture on social media, offering commentary on national politics with his signature blend of academic jargon and street humour.

David Mwaure: The Man Kenya Forgot

David Waihiga Mwaure of the Agano Party received 31,987 votes (0.23%), the lowest of any presidential candidate. A lawyer by profession, Mwaure ran a campaign focused on Christian values, constitutional reform, and judicial independence. His candidacy attracted virtually no media coverage, no polling data, and no donor support.

After the election, Mwaure returned to his law practice in Nairobi. He made occasional media appearances to comment on constitutional matters, drawing on his legal expertise. The Agano Party continued to exist as a registered party but had no elected representatives at any level of government.

Mwaure's candidacy illustrates the challenges facing minor party candidates in Kenya: without the resources for media coverage, without the infrastructure for nationwide campaigns, and without the ethnic arithmetic that drives Kenyan politics, even qualified candidates struggle to gain traction. His 31,987 votes came from all 47 counties, suggesting a thin but nationwide base of support, likely among church networks.

The Broader Pattern

Kenya's post-election trajectory for losing presidential candidates follows a historical pattern:

• Mwai Kibaki lost in 1997 and won in 2002. Persistence paid off.
• Raila Odinga lost (or was denied victory, depending on who you ask) in 2007, 2013, 2017, and 2022. Persistence without eventual victory defined his career, though his AU ambitions offered a different form of success before his passing.
• Uhuru Kenyatta lost in 2002, won in 2013. The family name and coalition building were decisive.
• Kalonzo Musyoka ran in 2007, came third, and has since played the perennial running mate and kingmaker.
• Musalia Mudavadi ran in 2013 (4th place), then became a coalition partner rather than repeat a solo presidential bid.

The pattern suggests that Kenyan presidential losers either persist until they win, pivot to a coalition/kingmaker role, or exit politics. The 2022 losing candidates followed all three paths: Odinga pursued an international role, Wajackoyah positioned himself as a permanent protest candidate, and Mwaure returned to private life.

What This Means for 2027

With Raila Odinga's passing, the 2027 presidential race has lost the figure who defined opposition politics for a generation. This creates unprecedented uncertainty:

• ODM succession: Who inherits Odinga's party, his voter base, and his political brand? The struggle is ongoing.
• Luo Nyanza turnout: Without Raila on the ballot, will the region's traditionally high turnout (95%+) collapse? Historical data suggests turnout is heavily candidate-driven in stronghold regions.
• Opposition consolidation: Can any single candidate unite the Azimio coalition without Raila? Fred Matiangi has emerged as a contender, but building a national coalition from scratch is a different challenge.